December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Little SE upslope flow

Sometimes srn areas get a boost from that. Maybe even near you. I took a peak at the HRRR soundings, and they look decent. 

[weatherwiz]

wasn't there a local upslope event a few winters back...maybe 2017-2018? Parts of NE CT ended up with like 7-8'' and literally nothing was forecast (in terms of accumulations). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah we're like being saved by the -NAO right now and these sfc high's sliding across SE Canada. But we are really walking a fine line over the next few weeks...which pretty much defines the gradient pattern that's been discussed but we could just as easily end up on the wrong side. 

Not unless the blocking subsides.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

wasn't there a local upslope event a few winters back...maybe 2017-2018? Parts of NE CT ended up with like 7-8'' and literally nothing was forecast (in terms of accumulations). 

There was a pretty cool standing wave event… I definitely remember that.  A taste of the Green Mtns when grass was showing in one place but 4 miles away 5-8” fell.  I remember Coventry posters with pics.  Tolland too right?  It was it just downwind of the hills?  Maybe those are two different ones.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

wasn't there a local upslope event a few winters back...maybe 2017-2018? Parts of NE CT ended up with like 7-8'' and literally nothing was forecast (in terms of accumulations). 

March 2019. It was forecasted actually, but it was a unique mesoscale event. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not unless the blocking subsides.

Which doesn't seem to be the case. There may be some brief periods where the blocking relaxes a bit when is when we may sneak in a day or two of some above-average temps (just hope it's not at the expense of a cutter  ) 

but I actually like the blocking signal moving forward in the essence of the pattern. You don't want a stout block b/c then we may have suppression issues but if we get a strong enough block to shunt the gradient south a bit we should be good. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

March 2019. It was forecasted actually, but it was a unique mesoscale event. 

That was the rev's private snow storm while I was P Cloudy.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looking juicy.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There was a pretty cool standing wave event… I definitely remember that.  A taste of the Green Mtns when grass was showing in one place but 4 miles away 5-8” fell.  I remember Coventry posters with pics.  Tolland too right?  It was it just downwind of the hills?  Maybe those are two different ones.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

March 2019. It was forecasted actually, but it was a unique mesoscale event. 

hmmm I thought there was another one. 

I remember one occurring while I was still in school. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was the rev's private snow storm while I was P Cloudy.

I think I had like 1.5" or something from that. It was somewhat synoptic too. But he was giddy as a school girl. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes srn areas get a boost from that. Maybe even near you. I took a peak at the HRRR soundings, and they look decent. 

Yeah .. I’ve definitely seen that occur over the years 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is nice. good boost of QPF near RA/SN line.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There was a pretty cool standing wave event… I definitely remember that.  A taste of the Green Mtns when grass was showing in one place but 4 miles away 5-8” fell.  I remember Coventry posters with pics.  Tolland too right?  It was it just downwind of the hills?  Maybe those are two different ones.

Yes. That was some type of upslope deal that skipped NW CT hills and most of ORH somehow which I never quite understood. Models kept pegging this area for days. I ended up with 7-8”. It was very mesoscale. I mean you went 2-3 miles in any direction and less elevation and you quickly went to little or no snow. I have never seen something like that here to that degree in all the years here . The cool thing was it was actually falling over the valley as echoes showed the snow there, but it was deposited in the NE CT hills while the valley literally had nothing 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is nice. good boost of QPF near RA/SN line.

Little inflow there gets going....maybe we can have a sneaky little critter. Would be fun to get an over achiever finally.

[weatherwiz]

Looks like it also passes directly over Lake Ontario...that probably enhances moisture as well. Previous models runs (which were drier) I think tracked this farther southwest. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Little inflow there gets going....maybe we can have a sneaky little critter. Would be fun to get an over achiever finally.

looks like it never gets above freezing here either we take

[klw]

We must have had some freezing drizzle to start because the car was encased with ice with about .2 of snow on top of it.  Fortunately nothing was slippery but had to chisel the windows clean.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Little inflow there gets going....maybe we can have a sneaky little critter. Would be fun to get an over achiever finally.

NAM sort of shows this (not sure if real), but I guess the weenie in me sort of hopes for that light erly flow at like 925-850 where it's still cold with cold N winds at the surface to keep the weenie flakes going. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I had like 1.5" or something from that. It was somewhat synoptic too. But he was giddy as a school girl. 

Well that never happens like that. Probably a 1 in 50 year thing . It was pure Morch fluff. Vanished 2 days later like a fart under the covers 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM sort of shows this (not sure if real), but I guess the weenie in me sort of hopes for that light erly flow at like 925-850 where it's still cold with cold N winds at the surface to keep the weenie flakes going. 

Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.

The ideally redevelops everywhere ahead of next low.   

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.

Is this for 12/24? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this for 12/24? 

Yes.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this for 12/24? 

Yes.

[BuildingScienceWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this for 12/24? 

Yes, but the precip shield is a bit north. SW CT completely dry.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, BuildingScienceWx said:

Yes, but the precip shield is a bit north. SW CT completely dry.

Some models got them too. 

[weatherwiz]

Lift looks pretty decent region wide so would be shocked if SW CT didn't see some snow from it. It's quite cold aloft too so we'll maximize whatever QPF we deal with. I would imagine ratios upwards of 15:1 so maybe some can fluff their way to 3''. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.

I imagine this makes the 12/25 deal less likely to mix/rain down here?

[CoastalWx]

It's possible Christmas system is just a mess, or maybe more for CT and points SW? Almost like if 12/24 misses CT, 12/25 might work out etc. Either way...hopefully something widespread of an inch or more for many.

[PhineasC]

Mod snow, nice big flakes. 28 degrees.