December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I think it's the other aspects of CC that are impacting our snow events rather than just overall warming averages.

So the big events get really big while there's less small to mid-tier storms like you said.

Bring back the Alberta clipper quick 3 to 5s? Fast flow events

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Add 6 day storm threat threads to your fraud five

Agree....I said inside of 5.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bring back the Alberta clipper quick 3 to 5s? Fast flow events

I don't have the data in front of me, but my guess is that we had a lot of fast flow in the 80s with lots of +AO/NAO. Hence the lack of biggies (except in some Ninos).  Fast times at Ridgemont High.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep spoiled childs

My current 3 year stretch is pretty comparable.

Roughly...

2018-2019 47"

2019-2020 33"

2020-2021 51"

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bring back the Alberta clipper quick 3 to 5s? Fast flow events

We don’t seem to do clippers anymore. 
When I was a kid I remember Harvey and Bruce talking about clippers all the time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh man let's see. Lifeguard , ski rat, surfing, motocross, concerts, babes, beach, bongs. Yea I would hit it again in a frigging heartbeat 

Well, give me 25 years and maybe I will feel differently...but I like my life right now much better....minus the loss of parent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an interesting discussion because by atmospheric physics, principles of ...,  there should be more snow ( and rain) regardless small, middling, or major events.

It comes down to a warming ambience holding greater theta-e ( WV), such that synoptic forcing in a richer mediuam becomes more proficient.

I think there are other factors... Speed of the flow ( imho ) is bigger in this than people realize.   And it fits that ... because the faster flow field is becomes a mechanical delimiter ?   And the first to go in that scenario would be the weaker S/W's in the field. So that "might" account for why their is increases except for those lowered tiered events. 

Great point.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bring back the Alberta clipper quick 3 to 5s? Fast flow events

This and clippers which bomb off the NJ coast. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't have the data in front of me, but my guess is that we had a lot of fast flow in the 80s with lots of +AO/NAO. Hence the lack of biggies (except in some Ninos).  Fast times at Ridgemont High.

You would think the fast flow would increase smaller events and decrease larger events, but that has not been the case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This and clippers which bomb off the NJ coast. 

NJ model lows.... Tip loves those lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Most in the NFL thought that's where the patriots were heading back too after Brady left, Ha.

Don’t get ahead of yourselves now. If the defense isn’t elite year in year out, can little Mac be a gunslinger…

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You would think the fast flow would increase smaller events and decrease larger events, but that has not been the case.

You mean recently? Yeah....definitely not the case.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't have the data in front of me, but my guess is that we had a lot of fast flow in the 80s with lots of +AO/NAO. Hence the lack of biggies (except in some Ninos).  Fast times at Ridgemont High.

Absolutely did. 

I got this strange fascination
For this chick, down the hall
Reliable information, Yeah
Says she ain't givin' up the ball
But Saturday night, I'll be checkin' it out
From the back of my van........
Fast Times at Ridgemont High

Havin' a ball
Fast Times at Ridgemont High
Writing on the wall......
Just yesterday, my friend got busted
She came home, smellin' like smoke
It's such a shame, when your not trusted
She only had one little toke
Yeah, the fear that you might fall
It's driving you up, the wall.........

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get ahead of yourselves now. If the defense isn’t elite year in year out, can little Mac be a gunslinger…

I have seen enough to know that they aren't going to be a doormat anytime soon. SB caliber...fair question.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, give me 25 years and maybe I will feel differently...but I like my life right now much better....minus the loss of parent.

Oh for sure the age 30s era was much more fulfilling with the kids but 18 wow now that was fast and furious. How I didn't die only God knows for sure.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You would think the fast flow would increase smaller events and decrease larger events, but that has not been the case.

Well transient blocking seems to pop up a lot. Flow can be fast until its not. Even for non snowstorms we have had frequent slow movers and omega blocks as well. I don't think there is enough empirical data to support fast flow theory.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen enough to know that they aren't going to be a doormat anytime soon. SB caliber...fair question.

They will never be a doormat as long as Bill is running the show. How anyone thought differently is oblivious to the importance of coaching. It is the only major sport where coaching and play calling is that important. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh for sure the age 30s era was much more fulfilling with the kids but 18 wow now that was fast and furious. How I didn't die only God knows for sure.

My 20s and early 30s should have killed me....quite literally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They will never be a doormat as long as Bill is running the show. How anyone thought differently is oblivious to the importance of coaching. It is the only major sport where coaching and play calling is that important. 

Yea, all I was getting at...he just needs a competent QB to competitive and I am confident he has that. But like I said, SB is another story and up for debate.

I'm getting there....

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get ahead of yourselves now. If the defense isn’t elite year in year out, can little Mac be a gunslinger…

Little mac does not need to be a gunslinger when you have a running game, And NE has never had the gunslinger mentality, Even with TB12 but my post was in reference to going back to the 80's, That's not happening.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My 20s and early 30s should have killed me....quite literally.

Almost as we know.  Anyways we survived now to be tortured by TBLIZZ mehing

[SouthCoastMA]

Last three seasons, albeit in slight different locales - all below average.  26",22",24" 

I'm feeling a closer to average type season. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Last three seasons, albeit in slight different locals - all below average.  26",22",24" 

I'm feeling a closer to average type season. 

 

I am confident that I will be above average.....but if not, then four consecutive sub par seasons is rarified air.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am confident that I will be above average.....but if not, then four consecutive sub par seasons is rarified air.

Welcome to Colorado 

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I think it's the other aspects of CC that are impacting our snow events rather than just overall warming averages.

So the big events get really big while there's less small to mid-tier storms like you said.

Something like this ..yeah.    As a gross estimate or point of conjecture ... it'd be like;

20% cut into low tier event climate.  Then, 10% cut into low to mid range ... Followed by (+)(-)5% around some mid point/middling events.  +5% adds to middling+ with +20+% on majors. 

It's a grab and give spectrum, from low to high in that sense.   And, I would almost be willing to conjecture that their is an increase in freak over production events, enough so to add new category - perhaps call it 'hyper events'  ...  So low, mid, upper, hyper ...and so on  

Fwiw, the PWAT increase stuff does come from formalized climate science and modeling therein. That's not just our surmise and educated guessing - it's mathed out.  As it "may" apply to our local corner of the world and record keeping .. mm, sometimes when it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...it's a duck. 

The notion of a velocity saturation as secondary modulator? ( which i have personally noted has become more like a base-line prevalence over recent decade(s), regardless of ENSO this or polar telecons ) That is an offset to that > PWAT model,  as a early posit.  But I like it

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something like this ..yeah.    As a gross estimate or point of conjecture ... it'd be like;

20% cut into low tier event climate.  Then, 10% cut into low to mid range ... Followed by (+)(-)5% around some mid point/middling events.  +5% adds to middling+ with +20+% on majors. 

It's a grab and give spectrum, from low to high in that sense.   And, I would almost be willing to conjecture that their is an increase in freak over production events, even so to add new category - perhaps call it 'hyper events'  ...  So low, mid, upper, hyper ...and so on  

Fwiw, the PWAT increase stuff does come from formalized climate science and modeling therein. That's not just our surmise and educated guessing - it's mathed out.  As it "may" apply to our local corner of the world and record keeping .. mm, sometimes when it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...it's a duck. 

The notion of a velocity saturation as secondary modulator? ( which i have personally noted has become more like a base-line prevalence over recent decade(s), regardless of ENSO this or polar telecons ) That is an offset to that > PWAT model,  as a early posit.  But I like it

Earth likes to balance everything.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NJ model lows.... Tip loves those lol

heh, m'yeah, sorry - I do.  Lol.   Fond memories with those.   I have seen more positive busts with those than any other type.  And in some weird personal 'holistic' symbology ... for some reason cool things were always going on in my life around the time one happened.   So it's like a lighthouse in the sea of disparity, when one gets modeled...  I might be able to get laid.

hahahaha.., kidding, but the reason the positive busts happen more frequently with those is likely do to them being smaller in latitude and thus not having a hugely physically detectable presence at long-ish leads in guidance.  Simply put, they're sneaky.  Both the events in the double pop in 1996 Will and I were reminiscing yesterday were both NJ model lows.  So was the exit bomb the nailed SE zones way back in '86 or '87 ... it seems there were NJ lows in both those autumns though so ...  One could argue the mega snow bomb of Dec 23 1997 was a NJ hybrid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, m'yeah, sorry - I do.  Lol.   Found memories with those.   I have seen more positive busts with those than any other type.  And in some weird personal 'holistic' symbology ... for some reason cool things were always going on in my life around the time one happened.   So it's like a lighthouse in the sea of disparity, when one gets modeled...  I might be able to get laid.

hahahaha.., kidding, but the reason the positive busts happen more frequently with those is like do to them being smaller in latitude and thus not having a hugely physically detectable presence at long-ish leads in guidance.  Simply put, they're sneaky.  Both the events in the double pop in 1996 Will and I were reminiscing yesterday...there were both NJ model lows.  So was the exit bomb the nailed SE zones way back in '86 or '87 ... it seems there NJ lows in both those autumns though so ...  One could argue the mega snow bomb of Dec 23 1997 was an NJ hybrid.

LOL Don't get carried away..Christine has made other plans.

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We don’t seem to do clippers anymore. 
When I was a kid I remember Harvey and Bruce talking about clippers all the time.

Every now and then one would slow down below Long Island and we'd get buried, nothing wrong with the 3-4 inchers either.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, m'yeah, sorry - I do.  Lol.   Found memories with those.   I have seen more positive busts with those than any other type.  And in some weird personal 'holistic' symbology ... for some reason cool things were always going on in my life around the time one happened.   So it's like a lighthouse in the sea of disparity, when one gets modeled...  I might be able to get laid.

hahahaha.., kidding, but the reason the positive busts happen more frequently with those is like do to them being smaller in latitude and thus not having a hugely physically detectable presence at long-ish leads in guidance.  Simply put, they're sneaky.  Both the events in the double pop in 1996 Will and I were reminiscing yesterday...there were both NJ model lows.  So was the exit bomb the nailed SE zones way back in '86 or '87 ... it seems there NJ lows in both those autumns though so ...  One could argue the mega snow bomb of Dec 23 1997 was an NJ hybrid.

Agreed.