MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m about ready to lock in a grinch period centered on Christmas of course I'm thinking the opposite this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look warm. Maybe not week 3, but week 4 looks warm. Good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good Good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good? You really think the weeklies will be right week 4 ? They suck even if they show cold and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You really think the weeklies will be right week 4 ? They suck even if they show cold and snow. I don’t think what they show is unreasonable. It’s not like that is a clown solution....that’s Nina there. But, as said earlier.....if that ridge does not retro, I think we would be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think what they show is unreasonable. It’s not like that is a clown solution....that’s Nina there. But, as said earlier.....if that ridge does not retro, I think we would be in good shape. I just looked at them on the ecmwf site. They didn’t look awful. Dateline ridge as you mention stays. We cycle through the amplitude and locations of that and Atlantic blocking in the earlier weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I just looked at them on the ecmwf site. They didn’t look awful. Dateline ridge as you mention stays. We cycle through the amplitude and locations of that and Atlantic blocking in the earlier weeks. Week 3 and esp 4.....woof. Was better after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 The skill level of the Weeklies have been terrible. Sure we have a La Nina but it's becoming more east based that should argue for a better Pacific more of a negative -EPO, +PNA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, leo2000 said: The skill level of the Weeklies have been terrible. Sure we have a La Nina but it's becoming more east based that should argue for a better Pacific more of a negative -EPO, +PNA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 People are definitely getting nervous, you can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are definitely getting nervous, you can feel it. They do every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are definitely getting nervous, you can feel it. No reason 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Its still November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 56 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are definitely getting nervous, you can feel it. Who? And Kevin doesn’t count as nervous is his baseline state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 CFS actually isn't warm here...must be decent reservoir of cold to the north by that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 EPS looked really solid last night. We’ll take this for sure.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 We hope and pray. That ridge was a little further east on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We hope and pray. That ridge was a little further east on the 00z run. Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looked really solid last night. We’ll take this for sure.... That is a good la nina look...cold north, mild south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole. LOL Get outta my head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole. I’m just hoping that holds a bit and doesn’t move west or drive a massive -PNA/SE ridge Like weeklies show. I think I’d feel better if I saw a little ridging over Santa to keep that PV on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 What I also notice as a theme is that the vortex has been biased towards our side of the globe...you don't always need it shattered into 1000 pieces and flipped upside down, especially at our latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just hoping that holds a bit and doesn’t move west or drive a massive -PNA/SE ridge Like weeklies show. I think I’d feel better if I saw a little ridging over Santa to keep that PV on our side. Yeah we know the caveats. Guidance has been volatile so nothing is locked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CFS actually isn't warm here...must be decent reservoir of cold to the north by that point. This is a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I also notice as a theme is that the vortex has been biased towards our side of the globe...you don't always need it shattered into 1000 pieces and flipped upside down, especially at our latitude. Exactly. Tell George lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 The other day Judah was trying to tell me that December was going to be at least +3 in the NE because, like George, he is hyperventilating over the PV not doing back flips. I simply replied, "no it isn't". lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole. That looks a lot better than I expected looking at the polar vortex strength forecast. It isn’t weak, and while it’s centered over the North Pole I like how it’s displaced to the south a bit like you mentioned. I’m hoping this is right and we have a decent pattern for December, and then later in the winter when the polar vortex weakens, it is in a good position to be displaced into the eastern half of the country. That would turn the pattern from good to epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, George001 said: That looks a lot better than I expected looking at the polar vortex strength forecast. It isn’t weak, and while it’s centered over the North Pole I like how it’s displaced to the south a bit like you mentioned. I’m hoping this is right and we have a decent pattern for December, and then later in the winter when the polar vortex weakens, it is in a good position to be displaced into the eastern half of the country. That would turn the pattern from good to epic. Epically cold....not snowy. I don't want the polar vortex over my head....keep it around Hudson Bay. All set with January 2004 or December 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Epically cold....not snowy. I don't want the polar vortex over my head....keep it around Hudson Bay. All set with January 2004 or December 1989. Yes, Just keep the vodka cold nearby, We don't need dryness going with our cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo signature on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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