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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You really think the weeklies will be right week 4 ? They suck even if they show cold and snow.

I don’t think what they show is unreasonable. It’s not like that is a clown solution....that’s Nina there. 
But, as said earlier.....if that ridge does not retro, I think we would be in good shape.

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think what they show is unreasonable. It’s not like that is a clown solution....that’s Nina there. 
But, as said earlier.....if that ridge does not retro, I think we would be in good shape.

I just looked at them on the ecmwf site.   They didn’t look awful.   Dateline ridge as you mention stays.  We cycle through the amplitude and locations of that and Atlantic blocking in the earlier weeks.   

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just looked at them on the ecmwf site.   They didn’t look awful.   Dateline ridge as you mention stays.  We cycle through the amplitude and locations of that and Atlantic blocking in the earlier weeks.   

Week 3 and esp 4.....woof. Was better after. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We hope and pray. That ridge was a little further east on the 00z run.

Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. 

It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.  

image.thumb.png.08226fc2135fdf273ea5a7ecd7d007d5.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. 

It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.  

image.thumb.png.08226fc2135fdf273ea5a7ecd7d007d5.png

LOL Get outta my head!

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. 

It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.  

image.thumb.png.08226fc2135fdf273ea5a7ecd7d007d5.png

I’m just hoping that holds a bit and doesn’t move west or drive a massive -PNA/SE ridge Like weeklies show. 
I think I’d feel better if I saw a little ridging over Santa to keep that PV on our side.

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just hoping that holds a bit and doesn’t move west or drive a massive -PNA/SE ridge Like weeklies show. 
I think I’d feel better if I saw a little ridging over Santa to keep that PV on our side.

 

Yeah we know the caveats. Guidance has been volatile so nothing is locked. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. 

It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.  

image.thumb.png.08226fc2135fdf273ea5a7ecd7d007d5.png

That looks a lot better than I expected looking at the polar vortex strength forecast. It isn’t weak, and while it’s centered over the North Pole I like how it’s displaced to the south a bit like you mentioned. I’m hoping this is right and we have a decent pattern for December, and then later in the winter when the polar vortex weakens, it is in a good position to be displaced into the eastern half of the country. That would turn the pattern from good to epic. 

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Just now, George001 said:

That looks a lot better than I expected looking at the polar vortex strength forecast. It isn’t weak, and while it’s centered over the North Pole I like how it’s displaced to the south a bit like you mentioned. I’m hoping this is right and we have a decent pattern for December, and then later in the winter when the polar vortex weakens, it is in a good position to be displaced into the eastern half of the country. That would turn the pattern from good to epic

Epically cold....not snowy.

I don't want the polar vortex over my head....keep it around Hudson Bay.

All set with January 2004 or December 1989.

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