HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think shady areas, hilly areas etc can keep it . It’s fluff though It will be fine if if you get more than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The ensembles still show a lot of light precip later Christmas and into the 26th so that tells me a lot to resolve. In any case, latitude matters. You'll have a better chance of retaining than Kevin because the cold is lurking near the border. Unless somehow you get a coating and he gets 2" or something like that. Hopefully we both make out okay...his elevation should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think shady areas, hilly areas etc can keep it . It’s fluff though So far, so good....my neighbor across the street still has cover, and his property sun bathes all day. I am just over the line, though...legit 2 miles down the road to join the highway, and its just patches.....nothing once you hit 495 in I93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 FRZRN, What a skating rink out there, 24/22°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully we both make out okay...his elevation should help. Hopefully everyone does. Was just stating the guidance sort of has a tuck look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At this point, I think the course of least regret is to not plan on anything, and if something becomes imminent, then rejoice. This. If it snows on Christmas Eve, great, if not, fine, it was always the most likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On that note, 6z EPS looks fairly active. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Light snow, 27.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This. If it snows on Christmas Eve, great, if not, fine, it was always the most likely outcome Yea, don't get me wrong...I'm not punting through NYE....but its just apparent that there is a great deal of volatility and the overall pattern, while improving, is not ideal....so I would adjust expectations accordingly until a plowable event is on your door step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Light snow, 27.5. Net gainer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Gun to head, though, one of these works out for most of us before the New Year.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 icy this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I just looked at what we have for SEA temps next 2 weeks. That's what most would hope and pray for here......and this is Seattle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Everything really iced over except street. Trees, bricks, deck and car windows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything really iced over except street. Trees, bricks, deck and car windows Can't stay safe enough 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything really iced over except street. Trees, bricks, deck and car windows Wonder if that cold drains any further east to Union or Woodstock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 A little frosting on the trees but now up to 33/32. Yard pack is dwindling but holding its own. Some festive flakes on Christmas eve/day would be nice but maybe we'll see a couple inches like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't stay safe enough He has an hour or two left of deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: FRZRN, What a skating rink out there, 24/22°F. Tiny flakes here, took 3 hours to reach 0.3" with temp about 21. Local school district canceled, probably due the ice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 31.6F...worst of it should be done soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He has an hour or two left of deep winter. Until tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Tiny flakes here, took 3 hours to reach 0.3" with temp about 21. Local school district canceled, probably due the ice forecast. They cancelled school here last night, Have some pellets mixing in, Waiting for the windshield to thaw so I can go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 A big key moving into the upcoming couple of weeks is going to see exactly how the pattern evolves across Asia and the western Pacific over the next 3-5 days. We think the pattern here is chaotic and complex it's probably moreso across that part of the globe. This may also be tied into the MJO given how strong that signal is but ultimately how the pattern exactly sets up across the western U.S. will have huge impacts for us. Until that SE ridge signal weakens (which there is some support for that) we could just as easy end up in an above-average temp regime with cutters as we can a colder pattern with snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: A big key moving into the upcoming couple of weeks is going to see exactly how the pattern evolves across Asia and the western Pacific over the next 3-5 days. We think the pattern here is chaotic and complex it's probably moreso across that part of the globe. This may also be tied into the MJO given how strong that signal is but ultimately how the pattern exactly sets up across the western U.S. will have huge impacts for us. Until that SE ridge signal weakens (which there is some support for that) we could just as easy end up in an above-average temp regime with cutters as we can a colder pattern with snow chances. Looks slightly cooler than average for the next week or so around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just looked at what we have for SEA temps next 2 weeks. That's what most would hope and pray for here......and this is Seattle. Yeah it ain't gonna be very cold & snowy here when Seattle is seeing low teens and Vancouver lower single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so week.... Agreed....if you have under an inch, it may not survive...esp in lower elevation in the western zones where precip finishes pretty early....but further east, the clouds will be slower to depart and I think anyone who grabs close to 1.5-2" isn't losing it on 3 hours of temps in the upper 30s with a Christmas Eve sun angle. Might fall off the bushes or something, but you aren't melting a couple tenths of frozen QPF in a couple hours of low-dewpoint 35-40 temps with the weakest sun angle of the year. The Euro doesn't even clear out eastern zones until 18-19z...sun is starting to set by 19z....lol. Hopefully it trends a little juicier in the final 24 hours. Could still end up as a dusting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 29.9F Light freezing rain dense fog. Light snow turned to freezing rain around 8am. About 1/2" before flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks slightly cooler than average for the next week or so around here. Yeah we're like being saved by the -NAO right now and these sfc high's sliding across SE Canada. But we are really walking a fine line over the next few weeks...which pretty much defines the gradient pattern that's been discussed but we could just as easily end up on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Maybe we can give this a little boost as it exits stage right. 925 winds are coming right into the S coast from those mild SSTs. Some guidance has shown a local boost there and onto the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can give this a little boost as it exits stage right. 925 winds are coming right into the S coast from those mild SSTs. Some guidance has shown a local boost there and onto the Cape. Little SE upslope flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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