40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Not yet. I don’t know but If signals look good in 12 to 24 hours from now I bet then they will launch it. It’s too soon and the models are way too erratic. i don’t trust a 4.5 day gfs. Yea, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22. It has completely accurately outperformed the too warm SPC HREF, HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle. ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter. The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan. While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter. Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays! Walt 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Pretty nice glaze in deerfield. Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 34 and light rain. epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Steady -SN. 26.7° A couple tenths so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Over to all ZR. Getting nasty quickly. 27.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Seems like most guidance is dropping an inch or two on Xmas Eve for a good chunk of SNE. NAM is furthest north while Euro looks furthest south. Guess we’ll see if there’s any trends today on that. The 25th looks weak on most guidance. Beyond that is still a mess with huge differences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22. It has completely accurately outperformed the too warm SPC HREF, HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle. ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter. The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan. While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter. Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays! Walt RGEM inside 24 for surface temps as been stellar since the days of yore when we started Walt. Happy Holidays and may this not be your last post here this winter but first of dozens. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Over to all ZR. Getting nasty quickly. 27.5° Have a safe ride in Bri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 28 and light snow. Eyeballing a trace to a tenth. Enough to cover the yellow snow but not the dog poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Have a safe ride in Bri They just salted my road and I’m about to head out. 29.5° Hopefully we can shoot up to 33° soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 32 at the house and had 30 driving from Westfield to Simsbury. Many icy spots on the back roads on the way, however 33 at my office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 The problem with Xmas Eve.. If we all get 1-3”, it gets to 35-40 Fri pm and melts anything in the sun in certain areas of region . Xmas Day looks like nada basically . This will be nip and tuck for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Don’t mind the Stein on this one today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Nothing doing until the new year it looks like. A coating to an inch on Friday morning won’t make it until the evening with temps near 40 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing doing until the new year it looks like. A coating to an inch on Friday morning won’t make it until the evening with temps near 40 Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance. So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires. But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing doing until the new year it looks like. A coating to an inch on Friday morning won’t make it until the evening with temps near 40 rgem is ideal for me. 1" Friday morning, then the 12/25 system is shredded with some flurries on Christmas. it's fine. some of the stronger solutions are just rain in semass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 30.1 Gettin saggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: 30.1 Gettin saggy D batteries front shirt? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM inside 24 for surface temps as been stellar since the days of yore when we started Walt. Happy Holidays and may this not be your last post here this winter but first of dozens. I always found the rgem pretty spot on for rain snow lines, within 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: D batteries front shirt? Looking like a Discovery channel Baka tribe documentary. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance. So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires. But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. It’s a lot of shortwaves, but also not ideal too. But, the 6z gfs sort of shows an ideal progression that we spoke about. Only caveat I see is that I’m not sure we see a ridge like that out west unless it’s transient. Weenies hate this, but it probably takes time and patience. Hopefully we can get one or two to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Was pleasantly happy not to see or encounter any ice upon heading out the door this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Temp down to 31.6..Crashed about 5 degrees in 15-20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Temp down to 31.6..Crashed about 5 degrees in 15-20 mins Same thing here in Simsbury. No ice and 33 at 5:30, now 31 and the driveway is icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Same thing here in Simsbury. No ice and 33 at 5:30, now 31 and the driveway is icing Probably won't last long as things mix out a bit. Shallow inversion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance. So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires. But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. At this point, I think the course of least regret is to not plan on anything, and if something becomes imminent, then rejoice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The problem with Xmas Eve.. If we all get 1-3”, it gets to 35-40 Fri pm and melts anything in the sun in certain areas of region . Xmas Day looks like nada basically . This will be nip and tuck for SNE I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so weak.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so week.... The ensembles still show a lot of light precip later Christmas and into the 26th so that tells me a lot to resolve. In any case, latitude matters. You'll have a better chance of retaining than Kevin because the cold is lurking near the border. Unless somehow you get a coating and he gets 2" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so week.... I think shady areas, hilly areas etc can keep it . It’s fluff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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