Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. Instead of being positively tilted and sucking out killer whales in Puget Sound, it should broaden a bit and move east. It will remain well west and force a SE ridge, but if you want low pressure and something with QPF, that’s what is needed. Hopefully weenies remain grounded and not expect epicosity. 

I think that still leads to attenuating waves here, but more juice than current...like what the GL are seeing now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't expect it move away anytime soon. Your blizzard call FTL.

oh well, hopefully we can get a few decent storms and be on the right side of the gradient for the next couple weeks, and then once the trough out west goes away we start getting big nor’easters in January and February. The pattern looked really good, but the trough out west kept strengthening as we moved up in time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The euro has a little under 0.50" of glop tomorrow morning for the Lakes Region. Congrats CAR.

Seems like the temps are pretty low.  It is colder than forecast here by a few degrees and the sun will be down shortly.  Skies are clear so there will be some rad cooling.  My point being it will likely add to the pack and solidify it vs. eroding it.   That's all I'm concerned about with this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Seems like the temps are pretty low.  It is colder than forecast here by a few degrees and the sun will be down shortly.  Skies are clear so there will be some rad cooling.  My point being it will likely add to the pack and solidify it vs. eroding it.   That's all I'm concerned about with this one.

Your dewpoint should stay at or below freezing, so damage is minimized. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

oh well, hopefully we can get a few decent storms and be on the right side of the gradient for the next couple weeks, and then once the trough out west goes away we start getting big nor’easters in January and February. The pattern looked really good, but the trough out west kept strengthening as we moved up in time.

The trough out west has never disappeared on any guidance except maybe clown range on the weeklies a few c HC les ago. It just shifted east slightly….the theme will remain -PNA…maybe we get it closer to neutral deeper in January of the weeklies are right but don’t expect 1977 and 2015 ridges out there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yeah you shift everything eastward a little bit and you will get more storm amplification…but even just something nuanced like a little piece or spoke of the 50/50 PV lobe retrograding and phasing can cause a storm to pop. Something like that won’t been seen on guidance though until way closer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Love the white right against the coast. Besides the Olympics it usually doesn't snow that much in those mountains.  Like being in Alaska or BC. 

Paradise Ranger Station (which I visited in June 1990) begs to differ.   To thnk the Cascades don’t get too much snow is to not know the area at all.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Said Scooter to Taunton Blizz.....

Did you see NAM at 18z...did you see NAM at 18z....

 

 

Heh… I literally wasn’t going to look at anything this afternoon/ evening.  I feel like the Christmas Eve/ Christmas deals are basically chasing delusions at this point.

Maybe someone sees some flakes, but your asking a lot from some pretty weak sauce looks for accumulating snow 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you shift everything eastward a little bit and you will get more storm amplification…but even just something nuanced like a little piece or spoke of the 50/50 PV lobe retrograding and phasing can cause a storm to pop. Something like that won’t been seen on guidance though until way closer. 

Which is why although I am not exactly thrilled with anything I see going on right now, things could have a different look in 24 hours 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we can keep that Xmas eve shortwave just barely robust enough, the midlevel profile is pretty nice for snow growth....you have like -12C temps at 700mb and the SGZ is also pretty deep.

I’m actually rooting for that one, but not sure it won’t get grinded a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...