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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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I feel like that parade of SWs must be getting grinded between the NAO ridge and the ridge down over Texas.....it must be aligned as such that there is just the right amount of distance to shear the pacific parade to shit at this longitude, and they can't begin to amplify again until approaching the Maritimes. 

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees.  That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures.  Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas.  Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip.

Try it once and you'll never want to go back to being cold on the holidays again. Lighted boat parades, lobster trap "trees", mosquito bites. Watching them try to put lights on constantly flailing palm fronds was entertaining. :wub:

kw.jpg

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees.  That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures.  Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas.  Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip.

Brisbane?

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like that parade of SWs must be getting grinded between the NAO ridge and the ridge down over Texas.....it must be aligned as such that there is just the right amount of distance to shear everything to shit at this longitude, and they can't begin to amplify again until approaching the Maritimes. 

Lots of turds circling around the bowl, but no healthy log. image.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Try it once and you'll never want to go back to being cold on the holidays again. Lighted boat parades, lobster trap "trees", mosquito bites. Watching them try to put lights on constantly flailing palm fronds was entertaining. :wub:

Well we have those here too...

p2696923787-4.jpg

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Talk about a roller coaster weather pattern moving through the first week of January. It's pretty ridiculous..on both extremes with the the degree of cold across the PAC NW and parts of the northern Plains and GFS getting mid 50's dews as far north as IN/IL with 60's into the TN Valley. These next few weeks will have it all...record warmth, record cold, blizzards, high end severe events...don't just buckle up around your waist, buckle your chest thing too.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Talk about a roller coaster weather pattern moving through the first week of January. It's pretty ridiculous..on both extremes with the the degree of cold across the PAC NW and parts of the northern Plains and GFS getting mid 50's dews as far north as IN/IL with 60's into the TN Valley. These next few weeks will have it all...record warmth, record cold, blizzards, high end severe events...don't just buckle up around your waist, buckle your chest thing too.

Bra?

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Each of them just hit the wood chipper here. None will produce more than flurries or dustings most likely. 

One anything changes that will cease....its not stable. Either the NAO block eases, or the RNA eases and one of the ridges will relent....or one the ridges just shifts in longitude a bit.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One anything changes that will cease....its not stable. Either the NAO block eases, or the RNA eases and on of the ridges will relent....or one the ridges just shifts in longitude a bit.

I still think that changes and moves east a bit. It’s enough to get the BZ going and actually getting a storm vs the Stein starved systems we see now. I’d rather ride the lightning and be on the edge of something juicy vs these systems we are seeing.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One anything changes that will cease....its not stable. Either the NAO block eases, or the RNA eases and on of the ridges will relent....or one the ridges just shifts in longitude a bit.

I just hope we don’t see the pna relax only to see the nao fade at the same time. It’s just seems the last few days the guidance has kicked the can with easing the pna. They have trended strong with the pna/southeast ridge and any changes still stuck at 300 hours 

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's amazing how many shortwaves are running into this block between new and New Years...like there could literally be 5 or 6 different chances in a 10 day period.

 

 

Each of them just hit the wood chipper here. None will produce more than flurries or dustings most likely. Exactly what I saw this morning . Each wave gets shredded like Scooters undies in Alcatraz 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Each of them just hit the wood chipper here. None will produce more than flurries or dustings most likely. Exactly what I saw this morning . Each wave gets shredded like Scooters undies in Alcatraz 

Check back in after New Years then.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still think that changes and moves east a bit. It’s enough to get the BZ going and actually getting a storm vs the Stein starved systems we see now. I’d rather ride the lightning and be on the edge of something juicy vs these systems we are seeing.

I agree....its ephemeral. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If I’m Wrong,  bump this post...wipe your bum with it, wash Kevin’s Dodge Ram.....whatever. But, just my opinion that will move east a bit. It won’t go away, but it will help facilitate cyclogenesis down south. 

No way that pattern remains perfectly stable...I agree. What exactly are you saying is moving east? The RNA trough?

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At least (I guess) it seems apparent that if the PV does split one piece will end up displaced over southern Canada. The northern tier of the country is going to be a breeding ground for storms in that case...and given the southern stream looks to remain active you phase any rotating piece of energy with that southern stream and you're going to get some big coastal's (at least potential). But regardless of southern stream involvement or phasing...there are going to be plenty of chances within that northern stream. 

The Arctic airmass pretty much gets displaced with the Arctic with the Arctic being replaced by a modified combination of cT/mT air :lol: 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way that pattern remains perfectly stable...I agree. What exactly are you saying is moving east? The RNA trough?

Yeah. Instead of being positively tilted and sucking out killer whales in Puget Sound, it should broaden a bit and move east. It will remain well west and force a SE ridge, but if you want low pressure and something with QPF, that’s what is needed. Hopefully weenies remain grounded and not expect epicosity. 

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