ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, well my point was larger events are more frequent and smaller events less frequent. I stand corrected about where the precise delineation lies. I'm also not totally convinced how much CC plays a role on these numbers versus just natural variability...you can clearly see there is decade-by-decade noise there. The increase in frequency in 12"+ events is *solely* driven by the 2010s increase. If you look at it from the 1950s-2000s, it is flat. My guess is CC contributes a little bit to the absolute monsters due to increased water vapor, but I think we often overstate the attribution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Punting decembers seem to be getting more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I miss December 2003 Great storms early that month, but the second half of that month was dogshit. Nice cutter right before Xmas too to wipe out any leftover snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Trick or treat sweet to eat, Torch from Halloween until New Years Eve. Yankees baseball sucks real hard.. Kevin still blowing leaves in his back yard.. Torch, torch, torch... Waxing the truck while the Cowboys lose... Torch, torch, torch, Viewing the Euro while drinking booze... Not one of your better efforts here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm also not totally convinced how much CC plays a role on these numbers versus just natural variability...you can clearly see there is decade-by-decade noise there. The increase in frequency in 12"+ events is *solely* driven by the 2010s increase. If you look at it from the 1950s-2000s, it is flat. My guess is CC contributes a little bit to the absolute monsters due to increased water vapor, but I think we often overstate the attribution. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am all set with signing Seager for that price, but I hope that do start investing something. Xander has a broad grin on his face....he will opt out after 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What do you think the average snowfall was by 12/10 in ORH in the 1970s/1980s when you were growing up? Just want to see if your memory matches the empirical data. 8-10”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 NAO, AO and PNA going in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not one of your better efforts here I’ll try harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the 80s are back and all of you get to enjoy what we went through. A slice of weenie humble pie. Man, I wish the 80"s would come back. 18 years old, no gray hair, no paunch. Wearing my spandex, teasing my hair and spraying it with Aquanet. Good times, good times 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Man, I wish the 80"s would come back. 18 years old, no gray hair, no paunch. Wearing my spandex, teasing my hair and spraying it with Aquanet. Good times, good times You couldn't pay me to be 18 again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: Man, I wish the 80"s would come back. 18 years old, no gray hair, no paunch. Wearing my spandex, teasing my hair and spraying it with Aquanet. Good times, good times 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 8-10”? Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10 Overall much snowier than this year .. unless Sunday night can deliver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10 Nice little link on NWS site. You can look up any day and see all the warmest coldest snowiest stats for each day https://www.weather.gov/box/dailytopten?wfo=box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10 I was going to say that it doesn't seem to me like December snowfall has decreased, but the month has warmed up quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Overall much snowier than this year .. unless Sunday night can deliver You realize we have 10 days until 12/10, right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was going to say that it doesn't seem to me like December snowfall has decreased, but the month has warmed up quite a bit. Correct. The warmth has been heavily skewed toward the minimum temps as well which we would expect....also doesn't affect snowfall that much because we aren't radiating during snowstorms. We are using the true profile of the atmosphere and not just the lowest couple hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the 80s are back and all of you get to enjoy what we went through. A slice of weenie humble pie. Did you forget 19/20 I mean talk about humble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Did you forget 19/20 I mean talk about humble Just one season....like 2011-2012....some of these millennials need to experience a 4-5 year stretch like we did in the late 1980s/early 1990s. That'll bring appreciation back for 2-4" snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You realize we have 10 days until 12/10, right? Well the only shot is Sunday night. If that rains or ends up being more of a fropa.. there’s no other real threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: Man, I wish the 80"s would come back. 18 years old, no gray hair, no paunch. Wearing my spandex, teasing my hair and spraying it with Aquanet. Good times, good times 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You couldn't pay me to be 18 again. Good morning mreavers, 40/70 B. When I was 18 in the mid 60’s growing up in an traditional Brooklyn Italian family, if I matched you, I probably wouldn’t be here today. At that time when reaching your 18th birthday, the first card you received in the mail was a 1A from Selective Service. Thinking back if putting things/events in perspective is possible, I agree. Good times, good times. As always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it is lost for a select few...most make the joke. Add 6 day storm threat threads to your fraud five 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Any real chance we see the Saturday deal come back at all? Or is that cooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well the only shot is Sunday night. If that rains or ends up being more of a fropa.. there’s no other real threats Yeah, we can definitely say for sure that all threats have been identified already prior to 12/10 and we know the outcome of them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Any real chance we see the Saturday deal come back at all? Or is that cooked? There's def a chance it comes back....it's really fast flow and models will struggle with it. There's actually quite a bit of spread on the ensembles over the Saturday deal. The trend last night was definitely to shear it out more, but it could easily reverse on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just one season....like 2011-2012....some of these millennials need to experience a 4-5 year stretch like we did in the late 1980s/early 1990s. That'll bring appreciation back for 2-4" snow events. Yep spoiled childs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You couldn't pay me to be 18 again. Oh man let's see. Lifeguard , ski rat, surfing, motocross, concerts, babes, beach, bongs. Yea I would hit it again in a frigging heartbeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 It's an interesting discussion because by atmospheric physics, principles of ..., there should be more snow ( and rain) regardless small, middling, or major events. It comes down to a warming ambience holding greater theta-e ( WV), such that synoptic forcing in a richer medium becomes more proficient. I think there are other factors... Speed of the flow ( imho ) is bigger in this than people realize. And it fits that ... because the faster flow field is becomes a mechanical delimiter ? And the first to go in that scenario would be the weaker S/W's in the field. So that "might" account for why their is increases except for those lowered tiered events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's an interesting discussion because by atmospheric physics, principles of ..., there should be more snow ( and rain) regardless small, middling, or major events. It comes down to a warming ambience holding greater theta-e ( WV), such that synoptic forcing in a richer mediuam becomes more proficient. I think there are other factors... Speed of the flow ( imho ) is bigger in this than people realize. And it fits that ... because the faster flow field is mechanical delimiter ? And the first to go in that scenario would be the weaker S/W's in the field. So that "might" account for why their is increases except for those lowered tiered events. Yeah I think it's the other aspects of CC that are impacting our snow events rather than just overall warming averages. So the big events get really big while there's less small to mid-tier storms like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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