Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well should my post with the tweet from Eric Fisher be moved?? 

No. Teleconnections are one thing that does directly impact our weather. However, direct posts pertaining to the sensible weather of a locale 3,000 miles away defeats the purpose of subforums. Make it all one forum, then. Truth be told, I couldn't give two shits about OT, but since people are going to needle the shit out of us about troll posts being "factual", that post was technically OT.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Teleconnections are one thing that does directly impact our weather. However, direct posts pertaining to the sensible weather of a locale 3,000 miles away defeats the purpose of subforums. Make it all one forum, then. Truth be told, I couldn't give two shits about OT, but since people are going to needle the shit out of us about troll posts being "factual", that post was technically OT.

 

So you view his post as "needling"???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro mjo stalls out even longer in 7 and now the gefs does the same also.

Hmm...   ya know folks should really get into the habit of reading the weekly PDF publications that come along with the CPC's RMM graphics.   Their summations are on point by Meteorologist, and they offer some crucial insights and suggestions that both enlighten present circumstances/implicaitons, but also as a learning tool?  Not trying to be condescending ...but it may help - this was released yesterday, and they tend to date these PDF's at the first of every business week.  They begin with these paragraph summations of "key take-aways" ..but they files contain depth, with other graphs relating Kelvin waves and SSTs ...and La Nina interference scaling.    I've bold some aspects below that I found intriguing for this week's

MJO indices continue to depict an enhanced West Pacific signal, and upper-level velocity potential
anomalies show the enhanced phase crossing the central Pacific.
The amplitude of the MJO has decreased, and the RMM-based MJO index depicts little eastward
propagation over the past week due to interference from the La Niña base state and Rossby wave
activity.

The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict persistent enhancement over the West Pacific, with
little to no eastward propagation. It is possible that this signal may reflect a temporary weakening
of the La Niña atmospheric response.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for this MJO event to remain coherent as
it crosses the Pacific.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm...   ya know folks should really get into the habit of reading the weekly PDF publications that come along with the CPC's RMM graphics.   Their summations are on point by Meteorologist, and they offer some crucial insights and suggestions that both enlighten present circumstances/implicaitons, but also as a learning tool?  Not trying to be condescending ...but it may help - this was released yesterday, and they tend to date these PDF's at the first of every business week.  They begin with these paragraph summations of "key take-aways" ..but they files contain depth, with other graphs relating Kelvin waves and SSTs ...and La Nina interference scaling.    I've bold some aspects below that I found intriguing for this week's

MJO indices continue to depict an enhanced West Pacific signal, and upper-level velocity potential
anomalies show the enhanced phase crossing the central Pacific.
The amplitude of the MJO has decreased, and the RMM-based MJO index depicts little eastward
propagation over the past week due to interference from the La Niña base state and Rossby wave
activity.

The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict persistent enhancement over the West Pacific, with
little to no eastward propagation. It is possible that this signal may reflect a temporary weakening
of the La Niña atmospheric response.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for this MJO event to remain coherent as
it crosses the Pacific.

It may never make it to phase 8....always suspected that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So...Euro is near 90 in Dallas on Christmas. W.T.F.

It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees.  That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures.  Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas.  Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It seems taboo but I have this weird fascination with spending one Christmas of my life in a hot, tropical place with palm trees.  That’s not DFW but sort of reminded me with the temperatures.  Just to see how that climo part of the world experiences Xmas.  Air conditioning while opening packages must be a trip.

Not Christmas, but I've been to the USVIs and in SW FL right after Christmas. Kind of cool seeing palm trees all lit up with Christmas lights. I wouldn't mind opening gifts and going to a beach bar to rip back a few pain killers. :lol: 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like less than that to me, but possible, I guess.

Xmas eve might actually be pretty fluffy if we can even wring out like 0.05-0.10....Xmas day still seems like it could be a bit heavier than shown there, but admittedly a total whiff wouldn't surprise me either. The model guidance has been struggling badly with the NAO block and the PNA firehose out west.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Xmas eve might actually be pretty fluffy if we can even wring out like 0.05-0.10....Xmas day still seems like it could be a bit heavier than shown there, but admittedly a total whiff wouldn't surprise me either. The model guidance has been struggling badly with the NAO block and the PNA firehose out west.

I'd be more enthused if my inch or crust wasn't melting as we speak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...