40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn’t look nearly as impressive All that matters is it was there...forget the QPF colors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn’t look nearly as impressive I'm really surprised it didn't show 12-18" again on a 5 day prog. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still liking that little nuke for the 26th. Nuke is overstating it a bit... weaker this run Edit... missed Will's response to TauntonPuddle2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Tblizz doing his best tmeh impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah he overplayed that one badly. Comes off as a really desperate troll attempt...didn't flow naturally at all. I mean, at least wait for a real model...maybe the GFS. ehhh, wasted one of five bullets on the icon. Four more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm really surprised it didn't show 12-18" again on a 5 day prog. Just pointing out it wasn’t as impressive. Who knows how it ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gives me a couple of inches on xmas...that would be nice. Narcan map is only a trace...hopefully overdoing surface warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...gun to head, the one after xmas. There;s another one for 12/28-29 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Potent s/w post Christmas. Would love to see the preceding s/w come further south to bring baroclinic zone further south. Verbatim it looked iffy as the return flow that preceeds it cooks the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It's continuing to become more and more clear that there is one helluva gradient pattern that is going to become established. If we can cash in on that we could get smoked. The pattern will be extremely active and there is just so much available moisture. Not only that but we would be feeding some high theta-e (for the time of year) into any potential systems. On the other hand, for as cold as it will be north of the gradient it will be just as warm moving south of the gradient so we could easily be more influenced by warm air and warmer systems. The degree of baroclincity is going to be super high (which has lots of positives but will have some negatives as well). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Next one up here will be around the 28th when the block relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I’m falling well behind my thunder snow quota so hopefully that’ll change soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 GGEM crunches 12/25 south....does get some light snow into CT and W MA.....it has Xmas eve but pretty weak....maybe an inch or so in some spots amidst widespread coatings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: I’m falling well behind my thunder snow quota so hopefully that’ll change soon I don't think I've had thundersnow since 2015...or maybe even 2013. that needs to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Potent s/w post Christmas. 12z looked a little too flat to me. 6z GFS tried to wind it up and curl it in before it exited eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?) I mean it clearly says accumulated freezing rain QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?) Yes. They are always overdone. In addition, radial ice is what we care about...so even if you actually do get flat surface ice to accrete half an inch, it will be more like 2 tenths radial. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?) even half would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: even half would be fun meh if we're going to do ice may as well go all out and get 0.75''+ ice accretion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 LOL every model is different. It's like a weenie advent calendar. Every day you open up the models and see a different solution. Hell every 6 hours. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Ukie gone wild in C NH if we keep the sfc < 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL every model is different. It's like a weenie advent calendar. Every day you open up the models and see a different solution. Hell every 6 hours. We have models bringing rain into CNE for Xmas and then some that crunch it southwest and give Greenwich CT snow while Ray is smoking cirrus. Basically a clown show on guidance....but we kind of knew this was coming. I posted that map yesterday that showed all those ridiculous shortwaves offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 An inch or 2 in SNE for Xmas even on the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: even half would be fun Ahhh....no. Ice sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL every model is different. It's like a weenie advent calendar. Every day you open up the models and see a different solution. Hell every 6 hours. Weenies opening models like Clark Griswald opening the advent calendar in Christmas Vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Good ol' Ukie....gives like a solid 2"...maybe 3" in spots for Xmas eve. "2nd best model" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. They are always overdone. In addition, radial ice is what we care about...so even if you actually do get flat surface ice to accrete half an inch, it will be more like 2 tenths radial. Those maps aren't even estimating accretion though...just the amount of QPF in the form of ZR. Weenies just aren't using the maps correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Those maps aren't even estimating accretion though...just the amount of QPF in the form of ZR. Weenies just aren't using the maps correctly. Yes....I know. I think there are some maps out there that try to estimate accretion, but even those are "Wrong" because they focus on flat....when radial is what causes all the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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