December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[MJO812]

Uncle

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh Canada…nice little Xmas Eve burst and then Xmas Day again on the GGEM…not as prolific as the ICON but it’s several inches for a good chunk of SNE. 

GEM and ICON....@MJO812 unholy alliance lol

[MJO812]

Very nice gfs run starting from Dec 26.

 

Yes the storms get shredded but there is plenty of cold air around. NAO doing work.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM and ICON....@MJO812 alliance lol

Cmc got a big upgrade

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM and ICON....@MJO812 alliance lol

 

[ineedsnow]

Euro gets parts of NH pretty good Wednesday now.. its a long shot but could see some flakes here but nothing more I dont think..

[MJO812]

Euro is further south and weaker with the Christmas wave 

[MJO812]

Euro doesn't bundle all the energy.  A few waves trail the Christmas wave.

[weathafella]

It may be light but the euro is days and days of snow.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It may be light but the euro is days and days of snow.

2 waves which caused a southern trend 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2 waves which caused a southern trend 

Its the near term first system that is a rain event for most in SNE that we can substantially thank.   

[The 4 Seasons]

Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. 

The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight
into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low
pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal
precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries
lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not
expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday
morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more
focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance
(we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to
keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay
tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning.

Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there
unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend
somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point
what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the
western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with
it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the
eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance
which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch
of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.
Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall
exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.

Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". 

There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".

Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.

KBDL 58%

KORH 52%

KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)

KPVD 42%

KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)

KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)

KBOS 24%

KBDR 20% 

KISP 19%

KEWR 18%

KNYC 15%

 

 

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. 

The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight
into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low
pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal
precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries
lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not
expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday
morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more
focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance
(we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to
keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay
tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning.

Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there
unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend
somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point
what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the
western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with
it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the
eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance
which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch
of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.
Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall
exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.

Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". 

There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".

Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.

KBDL 58%

KORH 52%

KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)

KPVD 42%

KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)

KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)

KBOS 24%

KBDR 20% 

KISP 19%

KEWR 18%

KNYC 15%

 

 

how does BDL have a better chance then ORH?

[Damage In Tolland]

Only 3 more days for it to fall apart 

[Ginx snewx]

Hey could be worse back in 2011 today we had a severe Tstorm line cross the state with a brief spin up seen on radar.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only 3 more days for it to fall apart 

Ice for you tomorrow?

[The 4 Seasons]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

how does BDL have a better chance then ORH?

Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ice for you tomorrow?

I don’t think precip gets this far inland 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference.

Because ORH has so much missing data. Don't trust those numbers plus airports don't do depth anymore

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. 

The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight
into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low
pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal
precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries
lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not
expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday
morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more
focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance
(we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to
keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay
tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning.

Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there
unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend
somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point
what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the
western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with
it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the
eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance
which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch
of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.
Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall
exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.

Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". 

There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".

Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.

KBDL 58%

KORH 52%

KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)

KPVD 42%

KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)

KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)

KBOS 24%

KBDR 20% 

KISP 19%

KEWR 18%

KNYC 15%

 

 

BDL definitely had one in 1995. There must be other years too.

[CoastalWx]

Lol 6z mini nuke right after Christmas.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think precip gets this far inland 

Oh it will even if a tenth, that can cause havoc

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BDL definitely had one in 1995. There must be other years too.

BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one

I meant white Christmas with snow on the ground.

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh it will even if a tenth, that can cause havoc

some GEFS members have over a half inch of qpf something to watch I guess

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some GEFS members have over a half inch of qpf something to watch I guess

Selling . This will all trend east today 

[dendrite]

Quite a few op runs are getting 0.30-0.40” back this way tomorrow morning. GFS soundings are borderline around H85-H9, but my hunch is mostly snow with a little mangled, refrozen flakes or sleet pellets mixed in. We’ll see what 12z brings…it’s an interesting forecast.

[ORH_wxman]

59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Because ORH has so much missing data. Don't trust those numbers plus airports don't do depth anymore

Yeah ORH hasn’t reported snow depth since the 1994-1995 winter. 
 

By my records, ORH has had a white Xmas in the following years post-1950:

1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019

So that’s 42 out of 70 or 60%. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol 6z mini nuke right after Christmas.

Guidance is all over the place with this weekend. Though for Xmas day itself we’ve seen some narrowing. Even euro gets some measurable snow into SNE now for Xmas. 

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro has about a half inch of qpf here just needs to be a touch colder and we ice