IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro corrects big now compared to the past. Aren’t there massive upgrades coming for models? I know things like quantum computing are on the horizon and certainly, more other kinds of upgrades. i don’t really honestly know what level of resolution is possible, because obviously a major component to how models work depends completely ON THE DATA YOU FEED IT!!!!!!!!!!! Hehehe So I think you’d need a grid of weather stations on every square foot of land to get to where you can predict 5 days out with the accuracy of today’s 36 hours out. Having a weather station every square foot of the land would be awkward and expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I swear I read an article a few months back, that I had to Google translate from French to English, that Euro upgrades always focus on verifying forecast improvements in the European domain first, even though it’s a global model. I couldn’t find it in my history to repost, so don’t hold me to it - someone with more understanding of modeling software development can feel free to correct that statement. They admit the upgrade has improvements, but also some degradations... Quote There are many positive impacts of Cycle 47r3, particularly on upper-air scores and tropical cyclone tracks. Upper-air geopotential and wind in the first few days of the forecast are significantly improved, by up to a few per cent for the northern hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential anomaly correlation, reducing with lead time. Upper-air winds are particularly improved in the tropics throughout the medium range. For tropical cyclones, there is a 10% improvement in the track location errors in both HRES and in the ensemble mean of ENS from forecast days 2 to 5. This is a result of the additional observations assimilated in cloudy regions and model changes which improve the steering flow. The impact of Cycle 47r3 on medium-range near-surface parameters is more mixed. Total precipitation is improved globally in the ENS. There is a small improvement in 2 m temperature in the extratropics, but a small degradation in the tropics. Two-metre dew point, 10 m wind and cloud cover also show small deteriorations. With such a major physics change, it is inevitable that there are some degradations, and these will be the focus of changes in later IFS cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Aren’t there massive upgrades coming for models? I know things like quantum computing are on the horizon and certainly, more other kinds of upgrades. i don’t really honestly know what level of resolution is possible, because obviously a major component to how models work depends completely ON THE DATA YOU FEED IT!!!!!!!!!!! Hehehe So I think you’d need a grid of weather stations on every square foot of land to get to where you can predict 5 days out with the accuracy of today’s 36 hours out. Having a weather station every square foot of the land would be awkward and expensive. A lot of input is satellite derived now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: They admit the upgrade has improvements, but also some degradations... So then why do it? Dumb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: A lot of input is satellite derived now. Interesting. I should have figured as much but even still I thought there were big limitations to that, and that ground measurements are still needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Weather modeling will never get around the quantum uncertainty principle; that is the computational dead end … which means the future emergence at scale will always have some fraction of freedom from prediction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 So I'm supposed to drive to my sister on Saturday. Based on the forecast right now, is it better to leave on Christmas Eve? She's located in NE Pennsylvania. Ordinarily I was planning on leaving on Christmas Day around noon after seeing my son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Nice blob in the eastern gulf going to come on shore down here tomorrow; too bad this misses you guys to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Weather modeling will never get around the quantum uncertainty principle; that is the computational dead end … which means the future emergence at scale will always have some fraction of freedom from prediction. Good. Because it is the reason we congregate here. I’ve been doing it for 4-5 years now. Weirdly, I go away in the summer and come back in the winter like a migrating…Reindeer! I’m not sure what it is but something is different about the following of summer events. Interior New England gets good storms not unlike Iowa, but both places have lots of moisture and haze in the air. this was a surprise to me coming from Nevada, where you can see every detail of thunderheads in high resolution crystal clear and that looks beautiful. out here it’s like the only way you know it’s coming is that it gets a little more dim outside. That and I grew up on a big hill with a panoramic view to see the storms in detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I swear I read an article a few months back, that I had to Google translate from French to English, that Euro upgrades always focus on verifying forecast improvements in the European domain first, even though it’s a global model. I couldn’t find it in my history to repost, so don’t hold me to it - someone with more understanding of modeling software development can feel free to correct that statement. I was going to ask if we knew it’s scores in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 You can see the effect the scolding /warning he got from the administration/mods had on his posting the last day and half. SNE beat him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 0z NAM is coming in a little sharper/stronger/west of 18z for Wed. I wonder if it can cool the column fast enough for eastern SNE. Looks like it will hit eastern Maine and the Maritimes pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 SLP ends up slightly SE of 18z even though it was shaper/stronger down south. Pretty much same result as last run however. Should be decent snows up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 A little torched in the BL @h85 and H92, Eastern Maine is cold at the surface so it looks quite icy there and some back here on the 0z Nam, Probably better for snow Milinocket up into the county of Northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Always watch these gulf lows. More often than not they tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, dryslot said: No. Actually, they have snowcover/probably 3-6” on average in most spots. These are from yesterday in Allagash and Fort Kent. So if they get a good dump on top of that…that’ll be a nice set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Actually, they have snowcover/probably 3-6” on average in most spot. These are from yesterday in Allagash and Fort Kent. So if they get a good dump on top of that…that’ll be a nice set up. That was from saturday, I wouldn't consider that a snow pack, You will still have objects in the trails exposed, Now after this next one, There will be a pack up there that they can work, You could definitely ride the rail bed in low snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, eduggs said: 0z NAM is coming in a little sharper/stronger/west of 18z for Wed. I wonder if it can cool the column fast enough for eastern SNE. Looks like it will hit eastern Maine and the Maritimes pretty good. Certainly doesn’t look enticing on any model at all that I’ve seen up to now. For Wednesday? All the models I’ve seen don’t show any traces of snow anywhere near southern New England. Yet, Mets did discuss the idea on forecast discussion earlier but models no. I didn’t see where you are… but yeah, I have assumed CT is not getting anything at all on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Certainly doesn’t look enticing on any model at all that I’ve seen up to now. For Wednesday? All the models I’ve seen don’t show any traces of snow anywhere near southern New England. Yet, Mets did discuss the idea on forecast discussion earlier but models no. I didn’t see where you are… but yeah, I have assumed CT is not getting anything at all on Wednesday. The models have actually shifted quite a bit over the past 3 days, slowly but steadily, from showing nothing to now bringing moderate qpf to eastern maine and just east of SNE. There's very little chance of snow anywhere in SNE. If anything there looks to be a low risk of a little ip or zr mixed with rain showers. It's the sort of thing that is only interesting when there haven't been any good threats on the horizon for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: That was from saturday, I wouldn't consider that a snow pack, You will still have objects in the trails exposed, Now after this next one, There will be a pack up there that they can work, You could definitely ride the rail bed in low snow though. Yes sir. I guess I meant snowcover. So they have cover, but yes things are thin and would be exposed. Some clubs rolled some of the trails last week(Red Arrow in St. Agatha did to pack down the snow they had). But ya..if they can pick up 8-10” on top then they’ll groom and work that nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 NAM is way north for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 This is unbelievable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Gonna be a snowy PAC NW including Seattle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gonna be a snowy PAC NW including Seattle. Look at all the snow over the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is way north for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is way north for Christmas Eve I would say that’s bad but it looks like there isn’t even anything there. i don’t know if I’m just doing something wrong or…. But NAM doesn’t show anything even in southern VT/NH. It went so far north it’s in Canada? And NAM at that range is not that scary to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This is unbelievable I’ve never ever seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Always watch these gulf lows. More often than not they tick west. There are quite a few Ens members at 18Z tucked with Congrats Dendrite death bands. Some deep lows, anyone notice those TS force winds on the Euro hitting Florida from this storm. Interesting storm. Wish we had some CP air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Frost was neat this morning. On the grill Same on my car this morning! I took a picture too haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now