weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 If anything at least we'll probably have another few high end severe weather events we can track. Maybe winter will come in March this year. Severe season and winter season reversed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One thing that is pretty noteworthy moving forward is how much the models pretty much turnover the Arctic and the stratosphere. Models really destroy the SPV over the next few weeks and multiple weak PV lobes just get sprayed everywhere. Also very interesting to see how the pattern actually looks to become more favorable as the NAO/PNA signals sort of weaken a bit. I think the biggest change though is models eliminate ridging across the Atlantic...I think that's been killing us b/c even with -NAO there have been weaknesses in the height field over eastern Canada and this ATL ridging feeds into the ridging over the Arctic domain and enhances the ridging and expands West. Take that to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Can see that progression eastward slowly on EPS. I know Ray mentioned this, but we also need to shake the moisture starved systems too. Once we get to tap into some gulf moisture, that will help. We probably will be riding the line on some of these systems, but I'll take my chances with some juiced systems too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Holy smokes... Did you see that big Blizzard for after Christmas on all the models?? NEITHER DID I LOLOLOLOL ( Sorry, couldnt help myself and its a slow week at the office hahaha ) No, But i saw a big........... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take that to the bank. I would have to think there is strong merit to that right? I mean isn't one way to attack the PV is to keep pelting it with strong s/w after strong s/w? At least with the Pattern configuration across the Pacific we're driving potent shortwaves into the Arctic and attaching the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Can see that progression eastward slowly on EPS. I know Ray mentioned this, but we also need to shake the moisture starved systems too. Once we get to tap into some gulf moisture, that will help. We probably will be riding the line on some of these systems, but I'll take my chances with some juiced systems too. and there is an abundance of this available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would have to think there is strong merit to that right? I mean isn't one way to attack the PV is to keep pelting it with strong s/w after strong s/w? At least with the Pattern configuration across the Pacific we're driving potent shortwaves into the Arctic and attaching the PV. I am very confident that the PV is going down this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: West some, But euro won't jump, It was a couple tics. it is so soon, that we can't really default to the ensembles. lets see what nammy does very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Holy smokes... Did you see that big Blizzard for after Christmas on all the models?? NEITHER DID I LOLOLOLOL ( Sorry, couldnt help myself and its a slow week at the office hahaha ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: it is so soon, that we can't really default to the ensembles. lets see what nammy does very soon. Getting inside 48hrs but this just really jumped west the last couple cycles to, But its been on the models for several days offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I like where things go towards the NY and beyond. Again, riding the line perhaps, but more opportunities finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Getting inside 48hrs but this just really jumped west the last couple cycles to, But its been on the models for several days offshore. i mean, we are in territory where the nam can lead in some situations. The fact that the gfs followed is a strong sign of at least something decent over by you. The Euro will show something at 18z probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: No, But i saw a big........... Holy Smokes...did you see that sixth post of the day from Snowcrazed? NEITHER DID I, HE'S 5 POSTED. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Those above-avg precip anomalies in the Tennessee Valley probably associated with a high end severe event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am very confident that the PV is going down this year. Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate. I feel like it will ultimately splinter apart. That is the one thing I was really confident about when I researched for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: i mean, we are in territory where the nam can lead in some situations. The fact that the gfs followed is a strong sign of at least something decent over by you. The Euro will show something at 18z probably. Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like it will ultimately splinter apart. That is the one thing I was really confident about when I researched for this season. If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 A December to Re-meh-mber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run. Give it a few more runs and it will develop an eye and move over my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run. Euro does miss in the medium range, but it capitulates so deliberately that you're passed out by the time you can realize it was wrong. I think that MO is built into them model's algorithm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Give it a few more runs and it will develop an eye and move over my fanny. Christ i hope not, But a phase further south would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo. I was thinking a month after the split as a lag....so I think I technically had it splitting in latter January, so late Feb/early March. But my timing could def be off....I'd be happy just to get the idea right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Holy Smokes...did you see that sixth post of the day from Snowcrazed? NEITHER DID I, HE'S 5 POSTED. Ha! That's ok.. I couldn't find a weenie that worked for you. Way to small to see. ;-) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro does miss in the medium range, but it capitulates to deliberately that you're passed out by the time you can realize it was wrong. I think that MO is built into them mode's algorithm. I wonder if it literally generates a solution and then hedges 50% towards the previous run. probably not but it is weird how it never jumps around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Ha! That's ok.. I couldn't find a weenie that worked for you. Mine is way to small. ;-) Its okay, bro....hard pass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its okay, bro....hard pass. Huh?? Trying to be funny, but I can't figure you guys out, or your humor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Huh?? Trying to be funny, but I can't figure you guys out, or your humor. When there is no snow on the ground in SNE and its almost Christmas, I don't think one will find much humor ha ha. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: When there is no snow on the ground in SNE and its almost Christmas, I don't think one will find much humor ha ha. C'mon seriously people. Humor is all we have right now. I'm wanting snow as much as anyone else in here, trust me. I am one of the biggest Weenies here. Proud of it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Huh?? Trying to be funny, but I can't figure you guys out, or your humor. Snow is serious bidness ‘round these here pahts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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