TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pacific flow ... or which ever, yup - I just prefer to refer to it overall as a 'gradient rich' environment. By gradient, we mean the height contours on the weather map. When you see more of them, the ambient wind velocity - to wit, waves in the atmosphere more embedded in that field - increases in direct proportion. This is a circumstance - as an aside - that has been a repeating theme in winters over our continent, with increasing frequency observed since the early 2000's. This has happened regardless of ENSO this, or PDO that, or polar index multi-decadal indicators. Prooooobably related to the 'hocky-stick,' non-linear climate change. Yes, it seems like regardless of any other indices, we end up in the same crap air mass and environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, I just spent 3 weeks with a tribe from east Africa, and the sandwiches tasted a hell of a lot better than the early portion of this winter. why I said it... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 GGEM has the Xmas eve snow too but it's a little further north in MA/S NH and a little drier than the GFS. CT gets a nice little hit Xmas morning on the GGEM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Tenuous, but in the game. Better than prior years lol. I'll take that over torching away a foot of pack the day before Christmas any day! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Not sure who said what when and where, how, or in what context so all due - but that idea of more than less favorable pattern transformation taking place closer to the month's end is definitely showing up more so in the last day's extended cluster means/telecon derivatives. Long ass haul to get there of course.. .but, we'd be out past the break water of the holidays in the open winter sea where it's all about pure event tracking for its own merit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: I've been feeling that 22nd system for a couple of days now...was just waiting to see some model truth of it coming west with the southern stream system. It just has that feel of something that "wants" to phase sooner. You can see the surface isobars kinking back toward the northern stream almost south of NYC. It almost seems like the models have an event horizon with these things...get 2 shortwaves that are strong enough, close enough, and then they develop a sooner attraction. We'll see. lets just hope it does this in a way that has it be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 There's going to be a lot of model volatility I think over the next 24-36 hours because some of the key features for 12/24 and 12/25 aren't onshore yet...and 12/25 is especially poor because satellite-derived data gets more unreliable in the arctic with the very low tropopause. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The 12/22 one looks to be the blocking mechanism for the two follow ups on the 24-25th, But as this ends up tracking more west, The block looks to end up there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: The 12/22 one looks to be the blocking mechanism for the two follow ups on the 24-25th, But as this ends up tracking more west, The block looks to end up there as well. The further west solutions on 12/22 seem to have further south solutions on 12/25...while the further east 12/22 solutions are more north/warm for 12/25 due to the 12/22 system not phasing as much and hence, the block and 50/50 low is a little weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Looks like we may have some combination of 3 chances for a white Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like we may have some combination of 3 chances for a white Christmas I think down here it's really two...not seeing how we get much, if any, snow from 12/22 in SNE...maybe N ORH county could. It's really going to come down to 12/24 or 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The further west solutions on 12/22 seem to have further south solutions on 12/25...while the further east 12/22 solutions are more north/warm for 12/25 due to the 12/22 system not phasing as much and hence, the block and 50/50 low is a little weaker. That was kind of where i was going with that without actually going there, We already have some ready to swan dive off the tobin ha ha, Yes, That western solution on the 22nd would force the next one further south and shred it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Ugh move that system more to the south and east and I would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Ugh move that system more to the south and east and I would be in business. Not gonna happen...airmass is trash anyway....when I-95 in Maine is flirting with the R/S line, it's garbage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 hours ago, dryslot said: George has gone banana's. We need the man with the big yellow hat to reign him in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think down here it's really two...not seeing how we get much, if any, snow from 12/22 in SNE...maybe N ORH county could. It's really going to come down to 12/24 or 12/25. Hopefully we can catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like we may have some combination of 3 chances for a white Christmas 5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s getting close to time to close the shades for a few weeks, especially south of the pike. Hmmm 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Ugh move that system more to the south and east and I would be in business. Nope. No Phase = No Bueno. Otherwise it's a southern low with no cold air to work with. It's rain with some catpaws at the beginning and maybe at the end. I'd rather punt it and save the snow on the ground for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hmmm He's teetering. We concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He's teetering. We concerned. Ya, a lil bi-polar stuff going on there. Lives and dies with each flopping run of the models… He’s ready to take the dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Hate to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hmmm He's just mimicking how you post all the time. Never wrong when you cover all the bases, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, a lil bi-polar stuff going on there. Lives and dies with each flopping run of the models… He’s ready to take the dive. I hate to see what happens when the euro has nothing for the 24th and rain for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hate to see what happens when the euro has nothing for the 24th and rain for the 25th. Bahaha . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hate to see what happens when the euro has nothing for the 24th and rain for the 25th. I need to get a T-blizz headshot for the updated "Jump-in-a-pit" Gif. Maybe all the leapers will have his head 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I hate to see what happens when the euro has nothing for the 24th and rain for the 25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I need to get a T-blizz headshot for the updated "Jump-in-a-pit" Gif. Maybe all the leapers will have his head I've said it a bunch of times, but we truly miss your work with those. Make them great again. They always had me LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I can see i will miss 5-10 miles to the SE of where it snows on this one on the 22nd............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I can see i will miss 5-10 miles to the SE of where it snows on this one on the 22nd............ Looks to be a slick treacherous day Wednesday on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hate to see what happens when the euro has nothing for the 24th and rain for the 25th. Anthony desperately running through the halls of 1PP trying to get the commissioner to call the Taunton chief to send a response team out to the house and water rescue assets down the Taunton River. Can’t send help because they were defunded. Hate to see it. edit: not intended to be a political comment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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