Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Well that's smacking the faces of the already crying ... ...12z NAM with a 980 RI passing over the BM re the 22nd thingy... only - too warm. wah wah wahhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Torched BL on the Nam here, H92 anyways for a time if its even correct, I have my doubts, Its the furthest west of any model right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I guess one semi-interesting look the EPS has for Christmas, is the front with low pressure just straddling SNE. Pretty cold north of the boundary. Maybe we get a meso low to tuck in some cold or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess one semi-interesting look the EPS has for Christmas, is the front with low pressure just straddling SNE. Pretty cold north of the boundary. Maybe we get a meso low to tuck in some cold or something like that. Or press it south 50-100 miles and it's pretty fun the whole time...some of the other guidance has that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've said it before and I'll say it again....many of our most prolific stretches have come during -PNA/-NAO patterns. exactly. the either-or statements aren't fact-based. A good pacific is better sometimes, and a good Atlantic at others. Also depends on where you live, as I look out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: exactly. the either-or statements aren't fact-based. A good pacific is better sometimes, and a good Atlantic at others. Also depends on where you live, as I look out my window. -PNA/-NAO can be a high stakes pattern....you can get strong gradients. We talk about great stretches like December 1970, but you go south a bit and there was almost nothing...but on the north side of the mean boundary, it was prolific snows. The NAO migrating west makes me think that over time, the gradients will be pressing south...it starts out kind of north, and then sinks. Going deeper into climo winter will also help as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Torched BL on the Nam here, H92 anyways for a time if its even correct, I have my doubts, Its the furthest west of any model right now. Yup... and to add to that suspicion... as I have my self warned when not mocking, ...hundreds of times, the NAM has a consummate W-N bias over the western Atlantic beyond 36 ... 48 hours, which this fits squarely into that suspect manifold. Despite that tho, this southern streamer is a specter that's been on the charts whenever grousing and bad attitude lenses allowed the user to see it... the 22nd system. The question - as Will and I mentioned - was really whether the N-stream would be able to 'dig' more and capture it/ up the phase proficiency. It's a fast flow - models don't handle the delicate machinery of phasing when hurrying the flow along at ludicrous speeds lol... ( I think I'm all set and ready to move on with fast atmospheres after the last 10 few years, but I fear it more common than not going forward ) Anyway, the GFS did also bump NW a bit ...clipping eastern zones with 34 F rain drops - Truth be told, if this thing were to really just come more W and dump heavy, it probably parachutes, but grazing the region in a rotted air mass is the shits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 If only we had northern stream help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Or press it south 50-100 miles and it's pretty fun the whole time...some of the other guidance has that. Well yeah lol, I just meant the "warmest" guidance if you will. Kind of had that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 My guess is mid-week still mostly misses east even though the NAM got precip in here. If that phase had happened much further south, then we would've developed a CCB sooner and you prob would get good interior snows from that track....but when the thing is just trying to phase almost as it reaches you, that's one of the warmest sequences in the storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is mid-week still mostly misses east even though the NAM got precip in here. If that phase had happened much further south, then we would've developed a CCB sooner and you prob would get good interior snows from that track....but when the thing is just trying to phase almost as it reaches you, that's one of the warmest sequences in the storm evolution. That ..and I was also just mentioning to Dryslot ( I always feel so dirty when I say that person's handle - ) how the NAM has a NW bias in this time-range and track. The GFS did sort of coalesce the low sooner and a few clicks west so.. heh, we'll see. Even in a stale fart air mass, I bet if that came down hard enough it would got slushy parachutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Euro has it to on the 22nd, But it was a couple tics colder in the BL, GFS was pretty stout @06z up here and was much colder, Dropped 6"+........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL... literally for like 10 seconds. You forgot one element: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've said it before and I'll say it again....many of our most prolific stretches have come during -PNA/-NAO patterns. You don't have to tell me that. I do wish the RNA wasn't so severe, but it is what it is for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well that's smacking the faces of the already crying ... ...12z NAM with a 980 RI passing over the BM re the 22nd thingy... only - too warm. wah wah wahhh You love twisting the needle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You don't have to tell me that. I do wish the RNA wasn't so severe, but it is what it is for now. Lets just get this more into the Rockies, and we'll get our shots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Maybe it’ll be an icestorm for ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You don't have to tell me that. I do wish the RNA wasn't so severe, but it is what it is for now. Yeah agreed...i don;t love the deep western trouhg, but even years like 1970 had a REALLY deep -PNA and it still worked. So much of it is nuance though. At least it's way better than a one eyed pig over AK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i believe in Santa, but that doesn't mean that he is going to plummet down my chimney on Saturday. Exactly. He will tumble down instead. You're drunk, Nicolas. Go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You love twisting the needle lol Heh... 'cept, I don't really feel it's me doing the twisting? I feel more like an investigative reporter, ...disseminating ironies just comes from honest observation. The models are - figuratively of course ... - going out of their way to find a tribe in east Africa and then taking their sandwiches - ..ah, we'd be the tribe in that metaphor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 One would think that a low in that place would pull some cold air down from Canada, but it looks like the cold is closed off. Junk airmass. I can understand the frustration for you eastern New Englanders if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro has it to on the 22nd, But it was a couple tics colder in the BL, GFS was pretty stout @06z up here and was much colder, Dropped 6"+........ does the snow cover help with the BL or is it more about the bigger process/evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah agreed...i don;t love the deep western trouhg, but even years like 1970 had a REALLY deep -PNA and it still worked. So much of it is nuance though. At least it's way better than a one eyed pig over AK. Wasn't the NAO more easterly based too in 1970-1971? I always get it confused as to whether we want a more easterly/westerly based -NAO and when I play it out by picturing it I always feel like easterly is better b/c it would support more of a trough axis digging just west of us and deeper. But there are instances I think where we've had some decent NAO blocks but end up with ridging under them across the east. I wonder how much the AMO influences this. One big differences between the 70's and now is the AMO was heading into the direction of negative during the 60's and was solidly negative in the 70's (and peaked in the early 70's). It seems like right now everything is just way too hostel. Both Pacific/Arctic and they're kind of fighting each other. One pattern type is trying to win out and be dominant but there's just too much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: does the snow cover help with the BL or is it more about the bigger process/evolution? It has to do more on phasing, For days it was phasing this over new foundland, Models are try to phase this over SNE in the last few runs, We would need this process to happen further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Looks like the 12z GFS will be west with this one too from the 06z run, Looks like ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z GFS will be west with this one too from the 06z run. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Congrats mtns of NH and ME. Nice look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For sure. Foot hills back towards Brian is going to get croaked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 if it were just a tad colder.. thats close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Foot hills back towards Brian is going to get croaked this run. How bout the county…? How’s it look for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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