Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: H5 is deceptive...look at the 2m temp anomalies. Its not the same. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Delta change still a nice gradient look 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It’s also highlighting the change from the previous run. The look is actually nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I agree with this statement though, "snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes..." In a vacuum I definitely do not; the end of the sentence does not follow logically from the beginning. Otherwise, I have trouble finding a context where this kind of dead-panned assumption of motivation, consigning all, can be true. Some ..in fact, most that I have ever met, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike, are drawn to drama first - not people flying through the air, nor property being shredded off foundations. There is an important distinction between the draw, and taking say ... 'schadenfreude' when observing harm unfold. The draw to drama is entirely ( by the way ...) a survival instinct. For those that do not fixate on specters, tend to succumb to them - eventually.. That draw and fascination for the dystopian cinemas of nature, to wit, the cinema of 'big storm graphics' ... that draw is far in way more having to do with that instinct - but ... people then get a charge out of that excitement and then get addicted ( in a sense... ) and that's a whole 'nother phenomenon... Anyway, much of that is often misconstrued as some form of morality failing. I'm disinclined to agree. The total motivation is nuanced, but just in general here. Does this have anything to do with me almost getting struck by lighting while enjoying a strong thunderstorm outside in a parking lot in 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It’s also highlighting the change from the previous run. The look is actually nice for us. Jan 4th through 8th 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I don't - still - think the Euro is going to win taking a low NW of New England, *IF* the -NAO is western limb oriented. That's physically less likely.. The model will likely not have done that anomalous behavior last night and this morning's cycle, if it didn't wash it's 120 hour range with amplitude like it always does... after which it then has to 'conserve it's own invention' So a little snark there, but heh... no - It can happen, but it's too rare and not likely handled at this range. The NAO is the wild card - it's a fickle beast in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Jan 4th through 8th 1994 Funny you mentioned this .... I have been wondering if/when the model dailies might start showing something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 If the block is for real around Christmas, I bet things either end up sheared to some mood flakes on/around Christmas or at least some nuisance wintry weather. If the block doesn't occur or is pushed further back, then probably ends up similar or even warmer than yesterday... Going to be the first true cold night tonight, already down to 31.6° with some wind... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: If the block is for real around Christmas, I bet things either end up sheared to some mood flakes on/around Christmas or at least some nuisance wintry weather. If the block doesn't occur or is pushed further back, then probably ends up similar or even warmer than yesterday... Going to be the first true cold night tonight, already down to 31.6° with some wind... This is real cold. Dropped all day here 27.6. CAA cold is ferocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is real cold. Dropped all day here 27.6. CAA cold is ferocious Winds make it feels nasty. Ice still clinging to branches here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is real cold. Dropped all day here 27.6. CAA cold is ferocious The family took a walk earlier and it was quite noticeable with the wind, sun didn't feel warm for the first time all season...Now we just need some snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 In all honesty, how is it even possible to make a forecast a week or more out. There is not one model that has been consistent. And I dont mean a little off, I'm talking one extreme to another within 24 hours. Point is, no one can really make a confident forecast on what the weather will do if it's several days out. Its so crazy. I don't remember it being this volatile ever!? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: In all honesty, how is it even possible to make a forecast a week or more out. There is not one model that has been consistent. And I dont mean a little off, I'm talking one extreme to another within 24 hours. Point is, no one can really make a confident forecast on what the weather will do if it's several days out. Its so crazy. I don't remember it being this volatile ever!? I just cut to the chase and told my family there’s a 30 per cent chance of snow on Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I just cut to the chase and told my family there’s a 30 per cent chance of snow on Christmas. Probably should have gone 28.9% at this point 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The pattern going forward, is definitely not the same after Christmas. We went over that tons of times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I just cut to the chase and told my family there’s a 30 per cent chance of snow on Christmas. This may be the last chance for some coastal locations to have a chance at a white Christmas ever again. 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 In all honesty, how is it even possible to make a forecast a week or more out. There is not one model that has been consistent. And I dont mean a little off, I'm talking one extreme to another within 24 hours. Point is, no one can really make a confident forecast on what the weather will do if it's several days out. Its so crazy. I don't remember it being this volatile ever!?Data overload. Genuine question for the Mets. Were forecasts more accurate within 7 days when there was less data say 10+ yrs ago?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The pattern going forward, is definitely not the same after Christmas. We went over that tons of times. This is instance of a true troll post...its not factually correct. There is major retrograding NAO block seeping cold down the coast, so showing an H5 image of a se ridge due to the RNA is pretty misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 This is real cold. Dropped all day here 27.6. CAA cold is ferocious At least ground will freeze up before you get some sn to fall on itSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Data overload. Genuine question for the Mets. Were forecasts more accurate within 7 days when there was less data say 10+ yrs ago? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk I’m not a met. But to answer your question nothing was ever accurate at d7. In fact, the original gfs had the short range AVN that went out to 72 hours and the longer range MRF to d10 which was (and still is) ultra lala land. Cmc went to d6 mainly available on the shitty graphics environment Canada. The euro was run once daily (12z) with plots in 24 hour increments. And it wasn’t available until around 7pm. Some of the mets had better access but we would wait for unisys output to d6. Later d7. Few had access to eps so one of the mets would describe it but were not allowed to post it. Accuracy through d4/5 is better vs 15+ years ago but there’s so much availability and so much trust that everyone presumes the models sucked. I remember pd2. The euro had the idea but the track was way off until d4 when it locked in. Same for all the biggies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: H5 is deceptive...look at the 2m temp anomalies. Its not the same. He posted a delta map. Not anomaly map. It was an intentionally deceptive post to generate a response. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: He posted a delta map. Not anomaly map. It was an intentionally deceptive post to generate a response. Here’s a delta for 24 hours later for him…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He posted a delta map. Not anomaly map. It was an intentionally deceptive post to generate a response. Okay, I guess I didn't look that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, I guess I didn't look that closely. Yeah it was like hr 312 snap shot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Gfs is still warm for the Christmas event, but it did cool from 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize y’all point the troll finger but has he said anything that’s not true tho ? Agreed he has not said anything incorrect, however would like to see him step up and and provide an opinion on the upcoming pattern change. I respect people who stick their neck out and provide forecasts/opinions (forecast). I asked him his opinion on the upcoming change will see if he responds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, I guess I didn't look that closely. 5 posters gonna 5 post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Jan 4th through 8th 1994 Get that ridge a little more east on the west coast and it's a perfect match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed he has not said anything incorrect, however would like to see him step up and and provide an opinion on the upcoming pattern change. I respect people who stick their neck out and provide forecasts/opinions (forecast). I asked him his opinion on the upcoming change will see if he responds. He won’t. He got quite a talking to today from mods. You’ll see different things moving forward . Not a met . Trolls .. and a fake mod. Nothing going for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is still warm for the Christmas event, but it did cool from 12z Tick tick. Decent snow for many during the day on the front end. Pike region looks good. You can see the nao keeping that press going so the trend is good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Tick tick. Decent snow for many during the day on the front end. Pike region looks good. You can see the nao keeping that press going so the trend is good. Yes… wouldn’t take much to get that a mainly snow event, but looks mild after.:. Almost like a spring event 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yes… wouldn’t take much to get that a mainly snow event, but looks mild after.:. Almost like a spring event Baby steps. Although by now we should have a full sized toddler…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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