IowaStorm05 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Heat kills a large number of people... I'm sure you know that. Never mind things like mosquito borne illnesses, etc. Everybody knows that. But I was only half serious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: if anything mild and nice weather is a very positive outlook. snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes. people conflate the weather they want as the only acceptable banter and weather talk, and will do anything to control the narrative in that sense. it sucks when certain people want to silence others, honestly. I would counter that while mild weather is nice, and definitely can be enjoyable, it’s not as interesting, especially in the winter. The places on earth that are both inhabitable and can experience snow is exceedingly small compared to places where weather can be mild and/or warm. Plus the current climate trends are pushing towards less cold and snowy weather. The conditions required for snow to fall are much more complex to forecast, especially for the areas on the fringes like ourselves. No one wants anyone silenced, it’s just the difference of walking by someone on the street and preferring they say “good day” rather than “**** you”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Christmas is extremely dicey to work out. Even the one after. I would definitely reel it in until the PNA relaxes a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Told you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Told you I try to tell ‘em. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 47 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: if anything mild and nice weather is a very positive outlook. snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes. people conflate the weather they want as the only acceptable banter and weather talk, and will do anything to control the narrative in that sense. it sucks when certain people want to silence others, honestly. I agree with your post. And I honestly feel as though you are just someone who genuinely enjoys pleasant weather. I feel like Mike (Forky) just likes to neeedle people endlessly. Bit of a difference...is he doing anything "wrong", per se...no. Being a jerk isn't a crime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Christmas is extremely dicey to work out. Even the one after. I would definitely reel it in until the PNA relaxes a bit. I feel like you are referring to a bonafide snow storm....IMHO the notion of a front end inch or two that won't get totally wiped out is pretty plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like you are referring to a bonafide snow storm....IMHO the notion of a front end inch or two that won't get totally wiped out is pretty plausible. Yeah possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah possible I guess. Do you feel as though the antecedent airmass and pattern is better or worse than last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 OP Euro gives me like 2". Take, and pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 12z GFS looked like poop (although some love cold rain) though, step back. But worth tracking/watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 12z GFS looked like poop (although some love cold rain) though, step back. But worth tracking/watching That's too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's too far north. Yeah... I think it will be pushed back south for the next run. Loads of time to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's too far north. Rain for sure on Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's too far north. It's oscillating each run. Euro has come in colder each run but is oscillating as well. Ens are pretty much splitting the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: Rain for sure on Xmas Certainly going to be some rain, yea....100%? Unlikely here IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: It's oscillating each run. Euro has come in colder each run but is oscillating as well. Ens are pretty much splitting the difference. Bottom line is all guidance needs to move further south for this to be more than a sloppy mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you feel as though the antecedent airmass and pattern is better or worse than last night? I think the airmass starts out better for sure. On the other hand, there low is also far west and has a ton of warmth with it. So it will Be a battle and latitude ftw again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 New pattern, same as the old one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bottom line is all guidance needs to move further south for this to be more than a sloppy mix. He has a shot of something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with your post. And I honestly feel as though you are just someone who genuinely enjoys pleasant weather. I feel like Mike (Forky) just likes to neeedle people endlessly. Bit of a difference...is he doing anything "wrong", per se...no. Being a jerk isn't a crime. I'm not sure I agree with this statement though, "snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes..." In a vacuum I definitely do not; the end of the sentence does not follow logically from the beginning. Otherwise, I have trouble finding a context where this kind of dead-panned assumption of motivation, consigning all, can be true. Some ..in fact, most that I have ever met, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike, are drawn to drama first - not people flying through the air, nor property being shredded off foundations. There is an important distinction between the draw, and taking say ... 'schadenfreude' when observing harm unfold. The draw to drama is entirely ( by the way ...) a survival instinct. For those that do not fixate on specters, tend to succumb to them - eventually.. That draw and fascination for the dystopian cinemas of nature, to wit, the cinema of 'big storm graphics' ... that draw is far in way more having to do with that instinct - but ... people then get a charge out of that excitement and then get addicted ( in a sense... ) and that's a whole 'nother phenomenon... Anyway, much of that is often misconstrued as some form of morality failing. I'm disinclined to agree. The total motivation is nuanced, but just in general here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He has a shot of something wintry. Who? Technically we all do. For it to be anything worthwhile it’s going to have to improve though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Watch that heavy confluence. That’s the key. Rain in NYC sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: New pattern, same as the old one H5 is deceptive...look at the 2m temp anomalies. Its not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I agree with this statement though, "snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes..." In a vacuum I definitely do not; the end of the sentence does not follow logically from the beginning. Otherwise, I have trouble finding a context where this kind of dead-panned assumption of motivation, consigning all, can be true. Some ..in fact, most that I have ever met, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike, are drawn to drama first - not people flying through the air, nor property being shredded off foundations. There is an important distinction between the draw, and taking say ... 'schadenfreude' when observing harm unfold. The draw to drama is entirely ( by the way ...) a survival instinct. For those that do not fixate on specters, tend to succumb to them - eventually.. That draw and fascination for the dystopian cinemas of nature, to wit, the cinema of 'big storm graphics' ... that draw is far in way more having to do with that instinct - but ... people then get a charge out of that excitement and then get addicted ( in a sense... ) and that's a whole 'nother phenomenon... Anyway, much of that is often misconstrued as some form of morality failing. I'm disinclined to agree. The total motivation is nuanced, but just in general here. Ok, me neither....I glossed over it. I agree with the rest. I love snow, but I am very happy with my life. That was a silly comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: New pattern, same as the old one 312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: New pattern, same as the old one Delta change still a nice gradient look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: H5 is deceptive...look at the 2m temp anomalies. Its not the same. It’s also highlighting the change from the previous run. The look is actually nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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