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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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A lot of you are focusing ( and melting down because of it ) on what is going to happen on Christmas. Winter is not over because we didn't have a real good amount of snow specially Southern New England and the tri-state by Christmas. Everybody wants a white Christmas, and trust me, it's such a nice thing to have the holiday, but it does not mean that we're not going to have a decent winter when we have January February and March coming up to have a decent amount of cold and snow. I myself don't want snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas day as I have to travel to families and that's more important to me than being stuck at home because of a snowstorm on the holiday. Some of you may disagree which is fine, but the older I get the more my family and time spent with them is important ( as well as the holiday itself which is all about sharing and giving ). I have no problem with getting all the snow and cold in the next 3 months.

 

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno. Pre-Xmas was always precarious even if still possible. It’s not like guidance is pushing back the blocking. If anything, guidance has improved since a week ago....remember when the SE ridge was poking into SNE on all the longer range guidance about a week ago? You don’t see that now. 

Yeah I think we said that a hundred times. I’m looking after and toward NY, but we certainly could have some systems work out.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

High heights pushing west into davis straight as we approach xmas…I would wager on more frozen then liquid for SoP. My early weenie lean. 

I agree, not that it is the well timed 2016 kind of block that pushed the blizzard south in the end. But I feel like this thing may end up congrats Mid Atlantic before all is said and done....

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25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s there, the region has a chance at a snowy xmas. That’s pretty damn good at this stage, and compared to years prior…

Yeah, that’s the main thing for me. We’re in the game, and unlike all the other “threats” thus far, the block gives us a fighting chance for things to trend better as we close in.

I still expect a grinch rainer on Christmas lol, but at least we’re not tracking a late April airmass coming through. 

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I agree, not that it is the well timed 2016 kind of block that pushed the blizzard south in the end. But I feel like this thing may end up congrats Mid Atlantic before all is said and done....

I wouldn’t be worrying about that at this lead time…so many things yet to sort out. Let’s see what it looks like by Tuesday/Wednesday before we fear suppression. We need the block so let’s see if it can play in our favor…

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21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You must really be  bored because you usually  waste every day of your life in the off topic threads...perhaps you can go shopping  on Amazon and buy yourself a life...

because i point out that it's a bad snow pattern for most people south of maine?

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I don’t know why Typhoon Tip’s the idea of a skinny little finger-looking trough curling down the Cali coast, turning E and bringing mud slides to those steep mountains just east of the San Fernando Valley is so funny. But it just sounded weird and funny. I envision an arm/tentacle of an octopus unrolling down to Cali. It all comes together for me. Unless we’re talking about a closed off low. Then it’s like a bowing ball.

i happen to have lived in the valley in my 20s and did a bunch of modeling and other unmentionable versions of winter weather that bring complications to your sinuses. Never again.

Mud slides aren’t funny because people do get buried by them. 
 

but I digress. Good water years are hard to come by out west.

someone asked why rain instead of snow is a problem for them but very recently the DRI made it clear that snow, not rain, is the store of water for the west. 
 

 

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anyone remember the year, early 2000's, where we had a similar storm as what we are currently looking at, very tight gradient of frozen to sleet then rain, I wanna say 01, but I'm sure someone on here has that analog in memory, believe there was even thunder snow in that one as well. would be nice to at least wake up to snow on Xmas morning for the kids anyway, most promising look I've seen so far, hope it doesn't get suppressed to far south

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