SouthCoastMA Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 some snow showers possible on the Cape overnight into tomorrow morning. euro and other high res guidance. James would've mentioned it by now so figured I needed to represent 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 EPS still looks like a warm risk Christmas. We finally sort of move things east a bit on guidance after Christmas. I’m not hopeful for things to finally going right (at least in SNE) until that happens. Pray for the 6z gfs but my thought is more towards the NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS still looks like a warm risk Christmas. We finally sort of move things east a bit on guidance after Christmas. I’m not hopeful for things to finally going right (at least in SNE) until that happens. Pray for the 6z gfs but my thought is more towards the NY. Pants tent pattern on both EPS/GEfS post-Xmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pants tent pattern on both EPS/GEfS post-Xmas. Exactly. Maybe with any luck we can get a bone thrown our way prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Yeah Xmas looks promising for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Exactly. Maybe with any luck we can get a bone thrown our way prior. Xmas is still somewhat interesting. Wish we had a stronger push of cold but at least there NAO block is actively retrograding while that system approaches so there’s room for models to correct better on that one unlike the previous system. Not holding out a lot of hope but not tossing yet. And while no OP model shows this right now, I noticed that several ensemble members on both EPS and GEFS eject some energy for 12/24 so a few of them had something for that day instead. The flip side of the equation is that if the NAO block doesn’t press down as much, we could still have flamingos and parrots for Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Theres a few members of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS that have this system diving farther south with advisory to warning level snowfall across most or all of southern New England. Obviously were still very far away and those members are in the vast minority at this range. Something to keep an eye on for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Xmas is still somewhat interesting. Wish we had a stronger push of cold but at least there NAO block is actively retrograding while that system approaches so there’s room for models to correct better on that one unlike the previous system. Not holding out a lot of hope but not tossing yet. And while no OP model shows this right now, I noticed that several ensemble members on both EPS and GEFS eject some energy for 12/24 so a few of them had something for that day instead. The flip side of the equation is that if the NAO block doesn’t press down as much, we could still have flamingos and parrots for Xmas. I saw that too for the 24th. The gfs interesting for Christmas in that it swings the cold down from Maine into SNE. Could be another I-90 north deal but it wants to push in as the storm moves off the cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The weenies have been so good this year too. Let there be white for Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The weenies have been so good this year too. Let there be white for Christmas. #FREELEO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Xmas is still somewhat interesting. Wish we had a stronger push of cold but at least there NAO block is actively retrograding while that system approaches so there’s room for models to correct better on that one unlike the previous system. Not holding out a lot of hope but not tossing yet. And while no OP model shows this right now, I noticed that several ensemble members on both EPS and GEFS eject some energy for 12/24 so a few of them had something for that day instead. The flip side of the equation is that if the NAO block doesn’t press down as much, we could still have flamingos and parrots for Xmas. Maybe we can muster the same dispersion of winter we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: #FREELEO #FREEPHIN too. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Maybe we can muster the same dispersion of winter we just had. Could be very similar actually. But at least this one has a more realistic chance of trending south and colder because you have an active retrograde of the NAO block occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be very similar actually. But at least this one has a more realistic chance of trending south and colder because you have an active retrograde of the NAO block occurring. Yes--I was being both serious and snarky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be very similar actually. But at least this one has a more realistic chance of trending south and colder because you have an active retrograde of the NAO block occurring. Awesome. If we are getting a repeat of yesterday… just give me 75 and sunny so I can enjoy the weather outdoors 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Egh ... I was gonna write about it. Even considered a new thread, "Anatomy of a White Christmas," that covers the scaffolding of major atmospheric, mass field modes --> modalities, replete with annotated graphics ...etc. Then, onward to elaborating how those might parlay into better chances to Currier&Ives the appeal of Xmas Eve through Boxing Day then we may think. Alas! Will ( bastard! ) beat me to it. J/k Will.. I mean he's succinctly covered the generality, and why/how the 'correction vector' toward ( what I believe would mean ) less likeliness for a Euro wound up western Ontario low by D7. I just want to offer some more specific insights/observations re the dailies: The differences track back to roughly/beginning D5.5/6, off the 00z runs when comparing the Euro and the GFS operational version ( the GGEM is mid way between so take for what that source is by least regrets. I won't for this exercise.. ) Looking first over Ds 2.5 - 5, the flow construct is, in essence, not significantly different between the two - and for what it is worth .. the means of both ens systems don't urge questioning much either. They have an 'outside slider' type trough curling down the Cali/west Coast, turning E and probably bringing mud slides to the elevations E of San Fernando Valley. From there on the -EPO trough ejects these mechanics into the crucially different morphology. Look over lower Saskatchewan/Manitoba by D6 ... ? By then these models have completely divorced in falling diametrically out of sync with one another. The Euro has a tightly nucleated, deep negative anomaly in that vicinity, amid a negate regional nadir in the height fields. Contrasting, the GFS bifurcates teh flow west of there, with the N component ridging amid those same skies, while said ejected trough coherence cuts underneath toward Chicago... The reason for this difference isn't abundantly clear, but it has meaningful forcing implications heading in Xmas day and the 26th from the Lakes to New England ( and all of this could be move up in time, too, nodding to the antecedent persistent fast flow state that's more of an on-going corrective, endemic hemispheric footprint ). This flow type of the GFS with the trough underneath, is a progressive low-amplitude REX configuration; those typically wrought winter headaches. Despite these significant mid/upper air differences aloft, the Euro surface featuring/version actually is not hugely different than the GFS for east of BUF... certainly ALB as we head toward the 24th. Both version initially maintain a bit of '50/50' low CAA leading, and start overrunning and snowing by dawn on Xmas, but... the Euro then has huge momentum in warm sector push and ends up cold raining and clear to southern NH. But those details are all going to change of course. I suspect if the EPS/GEFs mean, which both show Greenland/-NAO node tending to move S toward the D. Straight region is correct, that is going to offer less support for Lakes transits ( like Will said. ) So I'm precariously close to restating his ... heh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 south trend lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: #FREELEO What happened to Uncle Leo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Warmer on this run for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Warmer on this run for Christmas Again look past it and Hope for a miracle. NNE may be in it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I’m getting kind of sick of “past x date it’s going to be awesome” is it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: south trend lol aww i made the winter related usernames upset again 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m getting kind of sick of “past x date it’s going to be awesome” is it? I dunno. Pre-Xmas was always precarious even if still possible. It’s not like guidance is pushing back the blocking. If anything, guidance has improved since a week ago....remember when the SE ridge was poking into SNE on all the longer range guidance about a week ago? You don’t see that now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Something tells me that "melt" season begins in earnest this week. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Geez, Jerry--are you waking up early these days or not not going to sleep? Neither Mike. Go to bed typically between 2-3 an get up about 8 hours later. Getting closer to the real pattern change! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m getting kind of sick of “past x date it’s going to be awesome” is it? Patience bud. If we don’t score with the upcoming look as we approach MLK weekend, then melt away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno. Pre-Xmas was always precarious even if still possible. It’s not like guidance is pushing back the blocking. If anything, guidance has improved since a week ago....remember when the SE ridge was poking into SNE on all the longer range guidance about a week ago? You don’t see that now. Thanks Will. It’s a good look coming up…I have no issues waiting a bit. December is always precarious here in SNE. Sometimes ya get hit..more times ya don’t. Climo is quickly swinging in our favor too. And to be fair, it isn’t even winter yet officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Patience bud. If we don’t score with the upcoming look as we approach MLK weekend, then melt away. I agree completely. And I’ll melt with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I wish it were possible to ignore a moderator. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Really, if you took the 00z synoptic surface evolution from D5 to 7.5 and just moved it N 70 mi, that's the only difference. It's high stakes. Lot of temp gradient along the mean boundary - does it exit? And if so, where - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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