December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

41-50% for interior wct doesn’t jive with recent history. Either the map is off or we have been on the wrong side of variance.

Keeping in mind, also - ..for the general reader.

 ....  CC is real?   Yup... shocker but it is.  Unfortunately.    And, it has been noted that the curve is more logarithmic than perfectly linear.  That means the change is inconsistent/accelerating. How much or less, notwithstanding -

Plus, we get into the uncertainty area about "thresholds" and so forth - almost like the natural order 'fights back' ...tries to 'bend but not break' until it has to, then 'clicks' into a new regime.  It's like passing through the event horizon of the black hole ( in theory ..), where you don't feel or notice anything of particular differentiation or notice upon going across the boundary, but you can never go back...  Obviously, the climate can - but ...metaphors for fun..

The percentages are calculated over 150 years and so forth ... blah blah...  BUT the ballast of the years in that sample set obviously took place way back before this CC shit started ( possibly ) invalidating climate signals that are based upon them. It could just be 'on the wrong side of variance' like that, sure.  But, it could, dreadful to consider, be that a 'newer climate mode' lowers the chances. In that sense ..

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, radarman said:

I think you are right, but I'm also pretty sure it didn't qualify as official given the arbitrary 7AM cutoff

Correct. But I consider it one lol.

[CoastalWx]

1995 was like single digits Christmas morning with a foot on the ground. I’ll be picking roses this year. 

[It's Always Sunny]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

1995 was like single digits Christmas morning with a foot on the ground. I’ll be picking roses this year. 

Highs in the 40s isn't cold enough for you? . DFW may get close to 80F I'm loving every bit of it 

[OceanStWx]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1995 with a foot on the ground 

Yeah BOS records are in shambles from the 90s because they can't get Will's reconstructed data officially listed, but I do see a 11 inch snow depth in 1995.

[radarman]

Logan Airport reported 6.8" on 12/23/97 so I presume that was a white christmas

000 
TTAA00 KBOS 241717
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 PM EST WED DEC 24 1997

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED AT NWS TAUNTON FROM THE STORM 
WHICH BEGAN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THANKS TO 
SPOTTERS...OTHER AGENCIES AND MEDIA OUTLETS FOR PROVIDING REPORTS.  ALL 
AMOUNTS ARE IN INCHES.  ALL AMOUNTS WITH TIME REFERENCES ARE FOR 
TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX


NWS TAUNTON MA (BOX)   FINAL          5.8   
BOSTON LOGAN   (BOS)   FINAL          6.8     
WINDSOR LOCKS  (BDL)   FINAL          5.5
BLUE HILLS OBS (BHO)   FINAL         11.1 
WORCESTER APT  (ORH)  700 PM         18.0   

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, radarman said:

I think you are right, but I'm also pretty sure it didn't qualify as official given the arbitrary 7AM cutoff

I know what meant but .. not a 'right or wrong' - I was legit asking. 

I just know it was snowing off and on overnight out in Clinton, which is about 30 mi as the crow flies, west of the city, and the snow was dry and powdery by dawn.  Doesn't matter though - I've seen it be 19 F with near white out in Winchester, and 34F with cat paw rain at Logan - dem two locations be like 10 mi apart. 

But 7am on Xmas morning would have counted - not sure how the disqualifies Xmas if it snows at noon ...on Xmas. Anyway, the synopsis of that day had a coastal snowing at dawn essentially. It's a matter of whether it get to the coast.

[radarman]

1998 had a snow event for SEMA and the Cape on Xmas eve that just whiffed Boston.  They reported .1" officially

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

maybe I was thinking of 97 then..either that or 93

1997 was white, too....perhaps not in downtown Boston, but that event on 12/23 that have Ayer 8" in an hour ensured a white xmas for most of the region. I had like 15" when about 3" was forecast. Lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keeping in mind, also - ..for the general reader.

 ....  CC is real?   Yup... shocker but it is.  Unfortunately.    And, it has been noted that the curve is more logarithmic than perfectly linear.  That means the change is inconsistent/accelerating. How much or less, notwithstanding -

Plus, we get into the uncertainty area about "thresholds" and so forth - almost like the natural order 'fights back' ...tries to 'bend but not break' until it has to, then 'clicks' into a new regime.  It's like passing through the event horizon of the black hole ( in theory ..), where you don't feel or notice anything of particular differentiation or notice upon going across the boundary, but you can never go back...  Obviously, the climate can - but ...metaphors for fun..

The percentages are calculated over 150 years and so forth ... blah blah...  BUT the ballast of the years in that sample set obviously took place way back before this CC shit started ( possibly ) invalidating climate signals that are based upon them. It could just be 'on the wrong side of variance' like that, sure.  But, it could, dreadful to consider, be that a 'newer climate mode' lowers the chances. In that sense ..

Yup. I bet if they redid the calculations to cover just the last 50yrs, we’d see a shift north. It’s also not a snow on Christmas map so those that argue against CC like wolfie should keep their claws away. I would argue we have more snow now with higher frequency of bigger snowfalls but it doesn’t last as long…strictly speaking for non mountain locals in the region. My point is…2” of crud had more staying power 100yr ago then it does today, due to warmer nights and higher dews, so that meaningless 2” snowfall on 12/20/1921 may have lasted until Santa shot down the chimney while today, it would evaporate before Santa left his North Pole garage. Higher likelihood at least, relatively speaking.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, radarman said:

1998 had a snow event for SEMA and the Cape on Xmas eve that just whiffed Boston.  They reported .1" officially

Yeah we did. 6-8” down along Rt 44. I had just under 4” in Marshfield.

[CoastalWx]

98-99 was a decent winter in SE MA. They had a block buster storm in Feb and then a classic Ray CJ in January that year, but it torched a day later. 

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah +250dm anomaly on a 15 day mean. That’s the type of stuff we used to see in the 2010 blocking days. 

I am a tripod right now.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. I bet if they redid the calculations to cover just the last 50yrs, we’d see a shift north. It’s also not a snow on Christmas map so those that argue against CC like wolfie should keep their claws away. I would argue we have more snow now with higher frequency of bigger snowfalls but it doesn’t last as long…strictly speaking for non mountain locals in the region. My point is…2” of crud had more staying power 100yr ago then it does today, due to warmer nights and higher dews, so that meaningless 2” snowfall on 12/20/1921 may have lasted until Santa shot down the chimney while today, it would evaporate before Santa left his North Pole garage. Higher likelihood at least, relatively speaking.

Last 50 years here

Snow Depth
Maximum	Average	Minimum	Percent of Years
			>=1 inch	>=3 inches	>=6 inches	>=12 inches
12	1.9	0	51%	32%	13%	2

[CoastalWx]

Leon, do I see you on the gfs?

[qg_omega]

Merry Christmas

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Merry Christmas

 

Congrats Forky

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Merry Christmas

 

38/26 on the GFS. Pretty colors though

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

Logan Airport reported 6.8" on 12/23/97 so I presume that was a white christmas

000 
TTAA00 KBOS 241717
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 PM EST WED DEC 24 1997

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED AT NWS TAUNTON FROM THE STORM 
WHICH BEGAN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THANKS TO 
SPOTTERS...OTHER AGENCIES AND MEDIA OUTLETS FOR PROVIDING REPORTS.  ALL 
AMOUNTS ARE IN INCHES.  ALL AMOUNTS WITH TIME REFERENCES ARE FOR 
TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX


NWS TAUNTON MA (BOX)   FINAL          5.8   
BOSTON LOGAN   (BOS)   FINAL          6.8     
WINDSOR LOCKS  (BDL)   FINAL          5.5
BLUE HILLS OBS (BHO)   FINAL         11.1 
WORCESTER APT  (ORH)  700 PM         18.0   

Dont discount the grinch storms, 07 we had over 20 inches Christmas eve down to bare ground in Christmas morning

[WeatherX]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Leon, do I see you on the gfs?

Looks tasty the last week of December on this run

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

D10-15 mean pushes that PNA height anomaly a bit east/inland and that NAO block is in an ideal location. 
 

Hopefully that's what happens. However those crazy negative anomalies off the west coast make me think otherwise.

I am getting 2007-2008 vibes though. Central/northern New England will score huge in this pattern. SNE is on the fence.

Anyone further south is cooked if things don't improve out west.

[dryslot]

Gather around and i can read a bed time story...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought 2017 snowed in Boston?

I was in Clinton/MA for that one.  Winter storm warning for 6-8" or something middling like that, for Xmas Eve into the morning and it was like Currier&Ives post-card out there at the dawn.  It was like ... perfection entree, with a side of perfection -

Temp was 27 F with snow mid size aggregates whirling around in 1/2 mi visibility over 7" ... perfectly managed forecast, too.   But I dunno - maybe Boston was hung up on the E side of  CF or some other least excuse imagined not to get it done -

It did

[radarman]

12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Dont discount the grinch storms, 07 we had over 20 inches Christmas eve down to bare ground in Christmas morning

fair point in general, but 12/24/97 had a high of 34 at Logan

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems on par with expectations... yup - no worries.

Considering NWS that is.  Here is a product lifted from DVN:

...Resolution doesn't scale up very well with the tools/apps I have installed buuuut, that looks pretty cleanly still like TAN is way way buried on the left side of that probability spectrum.  I'd say probably near the cusp of the 0-10% boundary with the entry into the 11-25%...  If that is so ( for spell out's sake - ) that's like saying in 100 years, you can have a white Xmas 11 times.  

Obviously nature is messy and numbers don't return rate at such orderly predictability... but for layman's argument, a scatter distribution of 11 over a Century is roughly once ever 9 years ( 100/11 = 99 plus change...).  So, throw in GW (that many either protest/pretends/denies/gets into fume wars if they have to admit..etc, that suffers our latitude like everywhere else) ..that may account for stretching some ... who knows? But either way, it's not stretching expectations too 'unjustly' if thinking about the numbers.  

It would be nice if we could get a white Xmas every year with an 11% return rate - but that would require some sort of weird alternate reality LOL...  

I’m pretty surprised by that number… I could have sworn that I’ve seen higher probs posted on here… even for this area 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Probably the longest of long shots… but the Canadian moved a lot closer to something mid next week 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m pretty surprised by that number… I could have sworn that I’ve seen higher probs posted on here… even for this area 

you are right. I've seen other maps where it's closer to 25-30%

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Gather around and i can read a bed time story...

I prefer this one.

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad it’s the 84h NAM but that is kind of interesting looking for middle of next week. You can see how the northern stream is really digging and likely to at least partially phase with the southern stream. That is the type of look you’ll want to see on the useful models if that system is to have any chance. 
 

The 12z CMC looks tantalizing with this threat too. The biggest trend over the past few CMC and NAM runs is to increase the sharpness of the southern wave. That helps but we'd need big improvements from all the synoptic players. The two northern stream waves have trended slightly more favorable as well (increased antecedent heights along the east coast etc). It probably wouldn't take too much digging of the 2nd northern wave to induce partial phasing since the southern wave would be positioned to take on increasing tilt on the downstream side of the longwave trof. Thus far no guidance has really bought it.

Seems like a longshot, but I'm dreaming of Jan 25 2000.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

you are right. I've seen other maps where it's closer to 25-30%

Minus some missing data which shouldn't skew the results that much for a long climate record like BOS, the average is 26% of years with 1 inch on the ground.