December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We just need to move that trough east toward the Rockies and that’s what happens after Christmas. Things will get better at that time as the NAO block moves west. 

Pattern looks amazing on the EPS going forward regardless of any potential grinch on Xmas. I’m pretty confident we will cash in at some point on that look. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We just need to move that trough east toward the Rockies and that’s what happens after Christmas. Things will get better at that time as the NAO block moves west. 

Well on the bright side California drought cancel. Another epic Atmo river event  for them with 6 to 10 feet of additional snow in the Sierra. We look ahead to the New Year with hopes the pattern changes up. Some major Canada blocking developments in store. Delayed but not denied?

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe we get lucky towards the new year, but the rest of the month looks kind of like a disaster. Not great 

Fore!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks amazing on the EPS going forward regardless of any potential grinch on Xmas. I’m pretty confident we will cash in at some point on that look. 

I agree. I like that look a lot.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. I like that look a lot.

D10-15 mean pushes that PNA height anomaly a bit east/inland and that NAO block is in an ideal location. 
 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The EPS is definitely not like the op. But this is also why I mentioned a few issues with the pattern to look out for before Wolfie attacked me. I still feel like post Christmas is what we always have been rooting for. That hasn’t changed. 

C’mon Lol, I thought we got that all straightened out.  
 

And to be fair, it was TFlizz who first attacked you that morning…I just came in and tore more chunks off.   
 

I think We all can wait another week or so for something good that looks to be on the way. 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks amazing on the EPS going forward regardless of any potential grinch on Xmas. I’m pretty confident we will cash in at some point on that look. 

Certainly if the EPS is correct we will be start singing a different tune than the one Dendrite did this morning. 

Should auld patterns be forgot
And never brought to mind?
Should auld patterns be forgot
And snows of auld lang syne?

For snows of auld lang syne, my dear
For snows of old auld lang syne
We'll tak a cup 2015 yet
For snows of auld lang syne

We all have torched this year
And washed away our tear
But we've never gave up our hope
For snows of auld lang syne

Ray has looked for snow so dear
From morning sun till moon set
But  no snow has left him all upset
Wanting snows of auld lang syne

For snows of auld lang syne, my dear
For snows of auld lang syne
We'll tak a cup 2015 yet
For snows of auld lang syne

[MJO812]

NAO and AO look great on the eps

They both become even more negative as this month goes on.

[Baroclinic Zone]

yes, yes, get it all it the open.  embrace the warmanista in you.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

D10-15 mean pushes that PNA height anomaly a bit east/inland and that NAO block is in an ideal location. 
 

I’m sure you noticed,  but that’s a hell of an anomaly even at day 16 in the nao region. That has some staying power.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure you noticed,  but that’s a hell of an anomaly even at day 16 in the nao region. That has some staying power.

Yeah +250dm anomaly on a 15 day mean. That’s the type of stuff we used to see in the 2010 blocking days. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure you noticed,  but that’s a hell of an anomaly even at day 16 in the nao region. That has some staying power.

I was actually thinking(and was going to ask) that the -NAO not only looks to be in a great spot in that image as Will said, but it looks even more anomalous than it did previously to me. But then thought maybe I just probably didn’t realize it before. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah +250dm anomaly on a 15 day mean. That’s the type of stuff we used to see in the 2010 blocking days. 

I will be somewhat surprised if op runs don't evolve differently next week.

[dmillz25]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure you noticed,  but that’s a hell of an anomaly even at day 16 in the nao region. That has some staying power.

That Aleutian ridge gotta shift east some no?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I will be somewhat surprised if op runs don't evolve differently next week.

Ya I agree…they’d have to start adjusting to what that ensemble(EPS) is showing, if that image has a clue…which being a 114 hr prog it certainly should. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That Aleutian ridge gotta shift east some no?

That would work here. As long as that encompasses AK that’s enough to transfer cold into Canada.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NAO and AO look great on the eps

They both become even more negative as this month goes on.

Same as saying the Jets look good in training camp...

[EastonSN+]

Wow 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Too bad it’s the 84h NAM but that is kind of interesting looking for middle of next week. You can see how the northern stream is really digging and likely to at least partially phase with the southern stream. That is the type of look you’ll want to see on the useful models if that system is to have any chance. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Headed towards the 12th year in a row without a white Christmas here 

Seems on par with expectations... yup - no worries.

Considering NWS that is.  Here is a product lifted from DVN:

...Resolution doesn't scale up very well with the tools/apps I have installed buuuut, that looks pretty cleanly still like TAN is way way buried on the left side of that probability spectrum.  I'd say probably near the cusp of the 0-10% boundary with the entry into the 11-25%...  If that is so ( for spell out's sake - ) that's like saying in 100 years, you can have a white Xmas 11 times.  

Obviously nature is messy and numbers don't return rate at such orderly predictability... but for layman's argument, a scatter distribution of 11 over a Century is roughly once ever 9 years ( 100/11 = 99 plus change...).  So, throw in GW (that many either protest/pretends/denies/gets into fume wars if they have to admit..etc, that suffers our latitude like everywhere else) ..that may account for stretching some ... who knows? But either way, it's not stretching expectations too 'unjustly' if thinking about the numbers.  

It would be nice if we could get a white Xmas every year with an 11% return rate - but that would require some sort of weird alternate reality LOL...  

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad it’s the 84h NAM but that is kind of interesting looking for middle of next week. You can see how the northern stream is really digging and likely to at least partially phase with the southern stream. That is the type of look you’ll want to see on the useful models if that system is to have any chance. 
 

I've given up ... lol.  I mean whether it happens or not, I'm noticing a definitive pattern of modeling behavior that is both eerie, and real:

Losing mid/extended range specters, ... objectively plausible ones, too, precisely upon anyone mentioning them ... Almost like the electron double split spooky action at a distance thing.

Seriously though, that 22nd/23rd thing has had opportunity to be there but now the PNA s diving again next week, after a couple .. 3 days where it was alleviating some ( at least...).

It's a bizarre hemisphere, no doubt - I'd even venture to call it 'rare' in some sense. Though I doubt there are any databases the calculate teleconnector failure regimes, per se.   But having a -WPO tending to spill or lap over into the EPO domain, with -30 to -35 C 850 mb thermal sink over the vast expanse of the NW Canadian open tundra ( Euro 00z ),  .... FAIL to come south. With -EPO/-NAO, together with the former circumstance, that is a uniquely distinguished telecon forcing breakdown.  It's almost flirting with remarkable, actually -

Fascinating ... I suppose it would nice to be on the winter storm side of fascinating anomalies, but maybe that was 2015/Feb.  But here, not only are those aspects out there by D5-10 ...the Euro gets the 850s above normal to BUF. 

[radarman]

Anyone recall any official white christmases for Boston in the 90s?

[SouthCoastMA]

I can't remember which year but I'm thinking between 92-94 where there was a clipper that brought 4" here on Christmas morning. don't know if Boston did the same

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow 

 

 

Wow

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Anyone recall any official white christmases for Boston in the 90s?

1995 with a foot on the ground 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1995 with a foot on the ground 

These are mine

1995-12-25	32	15	0.00	0.0	12
2009-12-25	37	24	T	0.0	8
1981-12-25	33	21	0.00	0.0	8
1975-12-25	23	-2	0.04	0.7	7
2007-12-25	39	25	0.00	0.0	6
1992-12-25	36	6	0.03	0.6	6
1997-12-25	43	25	0.37	0.0	4
1989-12-25	24	4	0.00	0.0	4
1980-12-25	28	-15	0.00	0.0	4
1974-12-25	30	25	0.64	3.5	4
2017-12-25	33	21	0.58	3.1	3
2005-12-25	42	30	0.19	0.0	3
2002-12-25	34	25	0.90	3.4	3
1983-12-25	M	-5	0.00	0.0	3
1978-12-25	42	31	0.92	5.4	3
2008-12-25	52	26	0.41	0.0	2
2000-12-25	21	6	0.00	0.0	2
1998-12-25	31	9	0.00	0.0	2
1982-12-25	55	34	0.02	0.0	2
2012-12-25	36	25	0.10	0.6	1
1993-12-25	33	22	0.03	1.3	1
1991-12-25	32	12	0.00	0.0	1
1985-12-25	42	11	T	T	1
1976-12-25	39	12	0.05	0.6	1

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems on par with expectations... yup - no worries.

Considering NWS that is.  Here is a product lifted from DVN:

...Resolution doesn't scale up very well with the tools/apps I have installed buuuut, that looks pretty cleanly still like TAN is way way buried on the left side of that probability spectrum.  I'd say probably near the cusp of the 0-10% boundary with the entry into the 11-25%...  If that is so ( for spell out's sake - ) that's like saying in 100 years, you can have a white Xmas 11 times.  

Obviously nature is messy and numbers don't return rate at such orderly predictability... but for layman's argument, a scatter distribution of 11 over a Century is roughly once ever 9 years ( 100/11 = 99 plus change...).  So, throw in GW (that many either protest/pretends/denies/gets into fume wars if they have to admit..etc, that suffers our latitude like everywhere else) ..that may account for stretching some ... who knows? But either way, it's not stretching expectations too 'unjustly' if thinking about the numbers.  

It would be nice if we could get a white Xmas every year with an 11% return rate - but that would require some sort of weird alternate reality LOL...  

41-50% for interior wct doesn’t jive with recent history. Either the map is off or we have been on the wrong side of variance.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

These are mine

1995-12-25	32	15	0.00	0.0	12
2009-12-25	37	24	T	0.0	8
1981-12-25	33	21	0.00	0.0	8
1975-12-25	23	-2	0.04	0.7	7
2007-12-25	39	25	0.00	0.0	6
1992-12-25	36	6	0.03	0.6	6
1997-12-25	43	25	0.37	0.0	4
1989-12-25	24	4	0.00	0.0	4
1980-12-25	28	-15	0.00	0.0	4
1974-12-25	30	25	0.64	3.5	4
2017-12-25	33	21	0.58	3.1	3
2005-12-25	42	30	0.19	0.0	3
2002-12-25	34	25	0.90	3.4	3
1983-12-25	M	-5	0.00	0.0	3
1978-12-25	42	31	0.92	5.4	3
2008-12-25	52	26	0.41	0.0	2
2000-12-25	21	6	0.00	0.0	2
1998-12-25	31	9	0.00	0.0	2
1982-12-25	55	34	0.02	0.0	2
2012-12-25	36	25	0.10	0.6	1
1993-12-25	33	22	0.03	1.3	1
1991-12-25	32	12	0.00	0.0	1
1985-12-25	42	11	T	T	1
1976-12-25	39	12	0.05	0.6	1

maybe I was thinking of 97 then..either that or 93

[Typhoon Tip]

I thought 2017 snowed in Boston?

I was in Clinton/MA for that one.  Winter storm warning for 6-8" or something middling like that, for Xmas Eve into the morning and it was like Currier&Ives post-card out there at the dawn.  It was like ... perfection entree, with a side of perfection -

Temp was 27 F with snow mid size aggregates whirling around in 1/2 mi visibility over 7" ... perfectly managed forecast, too.   But I dunno - maybe Boston was hung up on the E side of  CF or some other least excuse imagined not to get it done -

[radarman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought 2017 snowed in Boston?

I think you are right, but I'm also pretty sure it didn't qualify as official given the arbitrary 7AM cutoff