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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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12 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Welp, so much for a very cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. That's a lot of warmth over the lower 2/3rds of the US on the 25th, pushing 90 in Texas :yikes:.

At least the storm for the 23rd came back a little and phased a lot sooner than 18z but still misses all of NE. We'll see what the next runs bring.

Cmc is colder and drier. These models are all over the place. 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is colder and drier. These models are all over the place. 

Not by much sadly. If that is the coldest of all the models for Christmas you can pretty much bank on it being in the mid 40's along the coast at least.

Also takes the southern storm for the 23rd and sends it out to Bermuda.

Not great trends today.

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10 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Not by much sadly. If that is the coldest of all the models for Christmas you can pretty much bank on it being in the mid 40's along the coast at least.

Also takes the southern storm for the 23rd and sends it out to Bermuda.

Not great trends today.

Op runs are all over 

 

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61bd70ce2b81a.png

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58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care less if its in the 40s on xmas with no snowpack or storms...who cares.

Well if it's not going to be a white christmas then the least I think people would want is a nice cold, winter type of day. Just for those 2 days. Who enjoys 50's on Christmas? We don't live in the south

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Well if it's not going to be a white christmas then the least I think people would want is a nice cold, winter type of day. Just for those 2 days. Who enjoys 50's on Christmas? We don't live in the south

Latitude doesn't seem to matter anymore with the never-ending strong Pacific jet blowtorching across the nation right into the Northeast. There have been so many days this past year where it's been hotter or the same temperature in the NE as it has been in the South...it's crazy, but becoming more and more common, it seems. :( 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice Xmas blowtorch on the Euro.

Blocking doesn't mean squat with a record negative PNA/PDO.

If you thought the anomalies for the US were warm before just wait till next week. Should easily be the warmest December on record.

Yikes! It's amazing, Christmas never fails to be warm in some sort of way. Chalk up another AN holiday.

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Iv3e said it before. I dont want it to Snow on Christmas Eve anyway. A lot of people will be going to family and friends that night. Also, lets just hopw the pattern changes for January and February.  

Look at the models... Just a run or two was cold and dry fpr Christmas.. Now the Euro is warm.  What the he'll are these models doing. All I will say is be prepared for quick changes and some surprise storms that will make us all happy. Embrace the pattern... It is one of the most changeable patterns we have seen. 

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yikes! It's amazing, Christmas never fails to be warm in some sort of way. Chalk up another AN holiday.

I would wait a few days. The wild Pacific jet is causing day and night changes over a span of a few runs. 

It could easily flip in 2 days. Anything after 3 days is highly speculative on the op runs.

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Well if it's not going to be a white christmas then the least I think people would want is a nice cold, winter type of day. Just for those 2 days. Who enjoys 50's on Christmas? We don't live in the south

I mean, I don't want 60...but 43? NBD if there is no snow to preserve.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, I don't want 60...but 43? NBD if there is no snow to preserve.

Euro and to a lesser extent eps suggests 50+ is on the table.   All the ensembles do seem to mitigate the RNA starting in about a week to 10 days which should be helpful.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Euro and to a lesser extent eps suggests 50+ is on the table.   All the ensembles do seem to mitigate the RNA starting in about a week to 10 days which should be helpful.

So far

 

 My forecasts from the local Mets are still calling for highs in the 30s for the Christmas weekend.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The EPS is definitely not like the op. But this is also why I mentioned a few issues with the pattern to look out for before Wolfie attacked me. I still feel like post Christmas is what we always have been rooting for. That hasn’t changed. 

After Rays late night meltdown, what choice do we have? I'm still still in, sooner or later we must be able to get something for all.

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I'm definitely in that mindset that has been expressed here, if it aint gone snow and/or there's no pack to preserve, i could care less if its 40 or 60. XMas/Mas Eve 2014, 2015 and 2020 were in the 50s and 60s.

Looking back i can't believe it was 69 in 2015, almost hit 70 on Christmas Eve, now that's a torch, tiger.

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Time to drag this one back out? I can picture all of the families in this subforum going outside Christmas morning, holding hands in a circle, and singing this under the warm sun. 
 

Oahu torch-us Nassau nuke-us
Welcome Grinchmas track this way

Oahu torch-us Nassau nuke-us
Welcome Grinchmas, Grinchmas Day

Welcome, Welcome
Kevin combust

Welcome, Welcome
Metfan magmas

Christmas snow is in our grasp
If there are weenies left to clasp

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