CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 On 12/16/2021 at 8:22 AM, CoastalWx said: I'll illustrate. Maybe we are talking past each other and this is also just for the next two weeks or so. I think I feel better having this role into January. Anyways, I feel like I want to see these features more east for something more epic. Get that cold, but also the baroclinic zone a bit to the east. We do have that Greenland ridge and confluence east of us, but it may not force everything under us. It also may be a little on the drier side with that type of flow over us..but again that is a mean and doesn't show daily details. We will have some chances I think...just not sold on the epic look, which for whatever reason caused angst. Later in the 11-15 day actually shows this. I know you don't want the SE ridge, but to me, that's a more active look with a cold source nearby. Maybe more SWFE or overrunning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 A better image albeit stand alone. This look below is much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 You got your -PNA but trough in Rockies. Davis Strait ridging, and a better 50//50 low. Scooter like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Later in the 11-15 day actually shows this. I know you don't want the SE ridge, but to me, that's a more active look with a cold source nearby. Maybe more SWFE or overrunning? With -NAO, -AO in phase 7 of MJO, should there be a SE ridge?.Makes little sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, KEITH L.I said: With -NAO, -AO in phase 7 of MJO, should there be a SE ridge?.Makes little sense to me It's not strong, but with that 500 look in the Pacific there will be a propensity for one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not strong, but with that 500 look in the Pacific there will be a propensity for one I think. Because of the -PNA I guess. I love seeing a -NAO because it usually leads to winter weather at this time of year. I'm not buying the Christmas warmup on Euro with a big block in Greenland and phase 7 of MJO. It should be much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The NAO block is in a better spot than a few days ago. That west-based look with a -PNA is really good for us usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The NAO block is in a better spot than a few days ago. That west-based look with a -PNA is really good for us usually. Yep, now that looks nice. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, KEITH L.I said: Because of the -PNA I guess. I love seeing a -NAO because it usually leads to winter weather at this time of year. I'm not buying the Christmas warmup on Euro with a big block in Greenland and phase 7 of MJO. It should be much cooler. Well remember MJO phases won't always fit composites perfectly. It just gives you an idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, now that looks nice. Hope it holds. It’s good for holding in a semi-permanent 50/50 feature. You can see where that low height anomaly is now just E of new Foundland. It becomes pretty hostile for cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Is the NAO ever implicated in making storms turn colder a day before they arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well remember MJO phases won't always fit composites perfectly. It just gives you an idea. Well phase 6 fit the last few weeks.Look at the temps this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A better image albeit stand alone. This look below is much better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Too bad we couldn't drop omega, forky and torch tiger on a remote island with no internet....they could just fantasize amongst themselves staring at the sun all day long...maybe add snowman21 to the mix. Why can't we, there's enough of us here to overpower them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Get out there and enjoy this beautiful weather. I mowed the lawn and cut down a tree today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Because of the -PNA I guess. I love seeing a -NAO because it usually leads to winter weather at this time of year. I'm not buying the Christmas warmup on Euro with a big block in Greenland and phase 7 of MJO. It should be much cooler. Toss MJO, it’s coloring your perception. I haven’t looked but is it a weak wave or strong. That makes a big difference vis a vis influence. I’ve seen nao time and again give us AOA normal temperatures. Nothing exists in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I was mowed the lawn and cut down a tree today. Why did you have to cut down a tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well remember MJO phases won't always fit composites perfectly. It just gives you an idea. Its a piece to the puzzle...but there are other forcing mechanisms. Maybe all else being equal, hedge towards MJO comps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why did you have to cut down a tree? It split in half during one of those dangerous DItty wind storms so it was barely hanging on…and it was close to the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Is the NAO ever implicated in making storms turn colder a day before they arrive? Yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I mowed the lawn and cut down a tree today. Remember you said no lawn care would be needed after Tgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Probably 2 people here that understand what that means. And I’m one of them Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember you said no lawn care would be needed after Tgiving? That wasn’t me. You must have been drinking too heavily again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That wasn’t me. You must have been drinking too heavily again. He started like 5 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Later in the 11-15 day actually shows this. I know you don't want the SE ridge, but to me, that's a more active look with a cold source nearby. Maybe more SWFE or overrunning? This is all I see in that image. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It split in half during one of those dangerous DItty wind storms so it was barely hanging on…and it was close to the driveway. Yeah you pretty much have no choice in that situation. I haven’t cut a tree down in a long time-ceded to the aborists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Oh how I wish for the Christmases of Old. A good song and fits perfectly with how I am feeling. Let's get these Miller B's up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: He started like 5 hrs ago. Tomorrow may be an all day IPA bender for Kevin if he is straight sleet to start and then 33F drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 nothing to see here ... until a week 2 perhaps unless shit changes - we'll see if it does, otherwise. nope - 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: nothing to see here ... until a week 2 perhaps unless shit changes - we'll see if it does, otherwise. nope - Shit changes all the time in the atmosphere, but Thanks Nostradamus. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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