ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Here's a couple similar patterns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 And here;s another....one that didn;t work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: And here;s another....one that didn;t work That last one looks like it would be more suppressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And here;s another....one that didn;t work That last one that didn’t work…the blocking looked totally insane…and squashed/ caused suppression??? Would I be right in thinking that? Or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yeah RE. the one that did not work, that low to the east would just force everything down to our south. Sort of like what the GFS op did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah RE. the one that did not work, that low to the east would just force everything down to our south. Sort of like what the GFS op did. Like Will said....you have to look at it in terms of probability because even the less suppressive regimes can still screw the pooch with gradient saturation. Each situation is unique, and we refer to past analogs to formulate somewhat of a conceptionalization to guide expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And here;s another....one that didn;t work Sign me up for this one that didn't work if we can get the following month to verify. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like Will said....you have to look at it in terms of probability because even the less suppressive regimes can still screw the pooch with gradient saturation. Each situation is unique, and we refer to past analogs to formulate somewhat of a conceptionalization to guide expectations. I just wish I could squeeze those features I drew on yesterday a bit closer together. I think that happens later in month and into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I just wish I could squeeze those features I drew on yesterday a bit closer together. I think that happens later in month and into January. That was a great post....ever since you made that, I have noticed how modeling is aligning better for the maratimes and New Foundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a couple similar patterns: Would take 08/09 in a heartbeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Sign me up for this one that didn't work if we can get the following month to verify. Funny, I right before Will posted that, I referenced Feb 1969 as an example of a RNA/NAO pattern that was better for NE than mid atl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Wish I had double-weighted 1970 ...the only reason I didn't is because it wasn't a second year la nina. December Analogs: 2007, 2000 (x2), 1974, 1970, 1995, 2005 (x2), 2017 (x2), 2008, 1983, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Euro cooled off for Christmas but it's still way warmer than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Euro has a weak impulse in the flow that tries to give a little light snow overnight Xmas eve into Xmas morning, but it's just a shade dry. More like snow showers. But again, those things are not going to be modeled well, so worth watching if it can turn into something bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a weak impulse in the flow that tries to give a little light snow overnight Xmas eve into Xmas morning, but it's just a shade dry. More like snow showers. But again, those things are not going to be modeled well, so worth watching if it can turn into something bigger. Euro cooled off from 0z with the big ridge on the 0z rub. Struggling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a weak impulse in the flow that tries to give a little light snow overnight Xmas eve into Xmas morning, but it's just a shade dry. More like snow showers. But again, those things are not going to be modeled well, so worth watching if it can turn into something bigger. Definitely moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Something brewing around the 27th. No way the storm is cutting with that look but primary is wat west over GL. Getting the squeeze play over northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro cooled off from 0z with the big ridge on the 0z rub. Struggling? This entire pattern is going to be difficult on model guidance because of the -PNA firehose running into the NAO block....at any time, one of the fragments of energy ejected from the western trough could become a player, but the model guidance can't really tell which one it is this far out. That's not even counting how model guidance handles the block itself...nuances in the orientation of the block can have large sensible wx effects. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Something brewing around the 27th. No way the storm is cutting with that look but primary is wat west over GL. Getting the squeeze play over northeast The primary is in Lake Superior at 216 hours....lol. But the block forces a secondary to develop off NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The primary is in Lake Superior at 216 hours....lol. But the block forces a secondary to develop off NJ. When I was looking at the train of storms I was sort of shocked at how low some of the SLP were over the West. If we can build some better confluence across Canada, it would yield a much better solution. Thing blows up offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 50° now. Definitely a little bit above forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 no grinch this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: 50° now. Definitely a little bit above forecast. Chilly there. 58F in the shade at home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: no grinch this year There will not be one Keep humping the model that's ignoring the pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: no grinch this year Sucks that you moved to St Louis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There will not be one Keep humping the model that's ignoring the pattern Too bad we couldn't drop omega, forky and torch tiger on a remote island with no internet....they could just fantasize amongst themselves staring at the sun all day long...maybe add snowman21 to the mix. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 A little more help on the EPS and everyone can be Parson Brown on 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sucks that you moved to St Louis Hard for southern Arkansas to see a foot of snow on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Hard for southern Arkansas to see a foot of snow on Christmas. So the grinch is in tornado alley...fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A little more help on the EPS and everyone can be Parson Brown on 12/25. Probably 2 people here that understand what that means. And I’m one of them 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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