Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Man.. You guys are a bunch of whiners. Storm is to far north...storm is DC special... Rain on Xmas.... Cold and dry. Isn't there a somewhere y'all can throw all your crying and complaning into thats not here ( and most of you are adults ). I mean.. Joking is one thing. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Man.. You guys are a bunch of whiners. Storm is to far north...storm is DC special... Rain on Xmas.... Cold and dry. Isn't there a somewhere y'all can throw all your crying and complaning into thats not here ( and most of you are adults ). I mean.. Joking is one thing. Lol Bite me 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Greg said: Be very careful, most of the 80's are a four-letter word around these parts. Nice? Warm? Hawt? Sexy? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bite me Nah... Im not catching what you have. ;-) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty close to punting 12/23...looked worse. Looked like ass… next shot looks to be 25/26… I’m sure we’ll be punting in that soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty close to punting 12/23...looked worse. Yeah I'm more interested in the train of shortwaves between 12/24-12/27. I'm hoping one of the early ones can deliver for Xmas, but I'll take any of them delivering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Anyway, I have a feeling the GEFS mean will be less overbearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The pattern looks so convoluted right now, We may not see a storm materialize until a few days in advance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 At least the GEFS trended colder for xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The CMC and GFS are world's apart right now. CMC crushes NNE through 240. I define NNE as VT NH and ME. I would take the average of the 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Honestly the Op GFS is not far off from a pretty damn good storm post-Christmas. The shortwave responsible for causing the suppressed solution comes out of W Canada and eventually gets stuck underneath the block shunting the storm S. If we can get those 2 timed right, we could be in for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: … I knew you’d be in shortly to fuel the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Honestly the Op GFS is not far off from a pretty damn good storm post-Christmas. The shortwave responsible for causing the suppressed solution comes out of W Canada and eventually gets stuck underneath the block shunting the storm S. If we can get those 2 timed right, we could be in for a good storm. Yeah I'm ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The CMC and GFS are world's apart right now. CMC crushes NNE through 240. I define NNE as VT NH and ME. I would take the average of the 2. Too warm if there is a NAO block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 GEFS show some potential after Christmas. That's when things were sort of getting more on track anyways. The stuff before Christmas was a lower chance as many have said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Too warm if there is a NAO block How was DEC 1970 for you? Feb 1969? Not very good......you need PNA and NAO...one or the other is better for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How was DEC 1970 for you? Feb 1969? Not very good......you need PNA and NAO...one or the other is better for NE. We don't need the PNA down here if the NAO is good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How was DEC 1970 for you? Feb 1969? Not very good......you need PNA and NAO...one or the other is better for NE. -NAO is better for us later in the season, +PNA earlier down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We don't need the PNA down here if the NAO is good . Having one of the two favors NE..I didn't say NYC can't snow. Plus its more detrimental south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, Greg said: Be very careful, most of the 80's are a four-letter word around these parts. At least we had the John Hughes movies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Canadian tries to redevelop a clipper on Xmas even to our south....that would prob be enough for white Xmas for most of us. These types of embedded shortwaves in the fast flow are going to be hard for models to resolve at this lead time. The pattern definitely gets even better after Xmas, but I wouldn't sleep on the 12/24-12/25 potential yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: -NAO is better for us later in the season, +PNA earlier down here That's actually a good point...thinking back over some of the seasons, a lot of the early season RNA/-NAO patterns were kind of hostile south of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Ha, I didn't even see that when I looped it. That would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's actually a good point...thinking back over some of the season, a lot of the early season RNA/-NAO patterns were kind of hostile south of NE. Yeah that’s why like you said NYC would need a +PNA/-NAO to work out more times than not. PNA becomes less of a factor In February/ March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Yeah that’s why like you said NYC would need a +PNA/-NAO to work out more times than not. PNA becomes less of a factor In February/ March I think some of that may be due to el nino seasons, which are more apt to produce down there when blocking is present because there is a more prominent STJ. La nina can be tougher even with blocking down there because its more n stream prevalent, which obvious better for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not impossible lol. Nothing is impossible. Could rain, could snow, could be sunny, could be dry….it’s all on the table for Scooter. All kidding aside though….I’d take my chances with that look. Let’s roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ha, I didn't even see that when I looped it. That would work. Which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Which one? Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nothing is impossible. Could rain, could snow, could be sunny, could be dry….it’s all on the table for Scooter. All kidding aside though….I’d take my chances with that look. Let’s roll the dice. Well the confluence to our NE could cause it. In any case, I'd take the look overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 CMC has a few chances at light snows between now and Christmas... plus a big rainer afterwards, lol. I would look for more support though... get some events lined up on multiple models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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