40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: That’s always a distinct possibility, but I’m choosing to think a lil more positively, and are happy we’ll have some chances. That’s all anybody can really ask for. I guess we can look at the chances as all whiffs or whatever, but I’m going with the more positive side, and that(as Will pointed out yesterday) that we’re loading the dice more in our favor going forward. I’m cool with that idea. And I’m Gonna enjoy the gorgeous day today as well. I am just talking about the 12/23 deal....that needs work. I'd be shocked if we hit the new year without a significant snow event for most of the region. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am just talking about the 12/23 deal....that needs work. I'd be shocked if we hit the new year without a significant snow event for most of the region. Ahh ok. I hear ya. Even 12/23 is 6 days away, and lots can and will change especially with the pattern changing drastically/and the blocking setting up. Models will take some time to adjust to this imo. At least we’re moving in the right direction, instead of Vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am just talking about the 12/23 deal....that needs work. I'd be shocked if we hit the new year without a significant snow event for most of the region. I kinda like where that one is for you guys out east, at the moment. Needs some work obviously, true, but I can count 99 weenies on here who would not want to be in the bullseye right now. Nor would it be meteorologically plausable for any model to hold a perfect phase for the next 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 There's a couple chances....the longer shot is 12/22-23....but there's a distinct chance at something 12/24-25 too....some guidance kind of has it more like 12/26....but there's a lot of shortwaves in the flow. The key is getting the -NAO to pin enough of a 50/50 low to force any potential cutters to our south. I also expect additional chances in the week to 10 days post-Xmas. You have that big -PNA just firehosing the flow with shortwaves into the NAO block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is no chance of a grincher. Maybe we miss significant snows, but its not going to be 50 and raining on xmas. Very possible 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ahh ok. I hear ya. Even 12/23 is 6 days away, and lots can and will change especially with the pattern changing drastically/and the blocking setting up. Models will take some time adjust to this imo. At least we’re moving in the right direction, instead of Vice versa. 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I kinda like where that one is for you guys out east, at the moment. Needs some work obviously, true, but I can count 99 weenies on here who would not want to be in the bullseye right now. Nor would it be meteorologically plausable for any model to hold a perfect phase for the next 5-6 days. 12/23 is entirely plausible...just needs work and I will want to see big improvements this weekend. If we get to Sunday night and we're still staring at H5 charts and prostate massaging, then its time to sell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: Very possible Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12/23 is entirely plausible...just needs work and I will want to see big improvements this weekend. If we to Sunday night and we're still staring at H5 charts and prostate massaging, then its time to sell. Yes sir. 100% agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a couple chances....the longer shot is 12/22-23....but there's a distinct chance at something 12/24-25 too....some guidance kind of has it more like 12/26....but there's a lot of shortwaves in the flow. The key is getting the -NAO to pin enough of a 50/50 low to force any potential cutters to our south. I also expect additional chances in the week to 10 days post-Xmas. You have that big -PNA just firehosing the flow with shortwaves into the NAO block. If we score, it will be one event in that 12/22 to 12/26 period...one will get keyed in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is no chance of a grincher. Maybe we miss significant snows, but its not going to be 50 and raining on xmas. Damn dude, you took the bait. It may not snow, but it certainly isn’t going to be rainy and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we score, it will be one event in that 12/22 to 12/26 period...one will get keyed in on. Yup one SW will emerge dominant if we are to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Damn dude, you took the bait. It may not snow, but it certainly isn’t going to be rainy and warm Its because I wasn't sure what he meant....he could have just meant no snow between now and xmas, which is possible for many of us....but if he meant 50 and rainy SW gales....that is a no-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its because I wasn't sure what he meant....he could have just meant no snow between now and xmas, which is possible for many of us....but if he meant 50 and rainy SW gales....that is a no-go. What about 40 and rain? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What about 40 and rain? Nothing shows anything like that. It either snows or is cold and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing shows anything like that. It either snows or is cold and dry The EPS and op show the possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes sir. 100% agreed. On massaging his prostate? You so kind and misunderstood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing shows anything like that. It either snows or is cold and dry OP Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS and op show the possibility. More the OP....EPS is seasonably cold. I guess 40ish and showers is possible, but I feel like if there is a major storm system, then N stream will be more involved and it will be colder, hence mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: On massaging his prostate? You so kind and misunderstood. Lmao…good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: More the OP....EPS is seasonably cold. I guess 40ish and showers is possible, but I feel like if there is a major storm system, then N stream will be more involved and it will be colder, hence mainly snow. As 500 digs for oil near Vancouver, it is possible we could have something near or west of us. Hopefully it's just sort of a front to our north with dry WNW flow or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: As 500 digs for oil near Vancouver, it is possible we could have something near or west of us. Hopefully it's just sort of a front to our north with dry WNW flow or something like that. You also have some pretty good heights near Greenland, too, so I think the potential for that is measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You also have some pretty good heights near Greenland, too, so I think the potential for that is measured. energy transfer and redevelopment, or front end dumps with pack solidifying sleet and a rain glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You also have some pretty good heights near Greenland, too, so I think the potential for that is measured. It is, but it's sort of stretched. IOW, both features are so far apart...not sure the Greenland block will have the power it could if those were closer together. If that makes any sense. It very well might and the GEFS try to show this. But I wouldn't ignore it. The euro op seems a little wild anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS and op show the possibility. To say zero chance is absurd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I'm just fine with dry and warm and cold and wintry, rather than warm and rain and cold and dry, unless we're going for snowpack records, in which case I'm all for prolonged cold, but prolonged cold leads to high heat bills so I'm good with that too... anyway prognosis looking more favorable for next week it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It is, but it's sort of stretched. IOW, both features are so far apart...not sure the Greenland block will have the power it could if those were closer together. If that makes any sense. It very well might and the GEFS try to show this. But I wouldn't ignore it. The euro op seems a little wild anyways. This is exactly my point....its not a perfect block, so yea....theoretically possible, but I feel pretty confident that we are not going to get a system to amplify west of us. I would stick with EPS over Euro OP right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: To say zero chance is absurd Okay, if I said 15% chance, would it make you sleep better at night? What I was trying to convey to the semantics Nazis is that I am confident that will not take place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Seriously, though...hyperbole on my part...not impossible, but pretty unlikely IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS and op show the possibility. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now