weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Some more progress towards something good next week. We trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some more progress towards something good next week. We trend. A ridge tries to build in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some more progress towards something good next week. We trend. Pretty obvious trends as we get closer. At 5 days out this could continue to trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pretty obvious trends as we get closer. At 5 days out this could continue to trend. Aren't we about 8 days out from this possible storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The NAO block is doing its thing on the gfs. Suppressing 2 lows near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO block is doing its thing on the gfs. Suppressing 2 lows near Christmas. Those lows are in good position but the dynamics don’t work and they actually verbatim minor out. Nao is saving the region from melting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some more progress towards something good next week. We trend. That was extremely close.....it was a net gain due to the N stream dropping in faster, but it also looked like some of that was negated by the s stream being faster, as well....or else that may have been a hit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Those lows are in good position but the dynamics don’t work and they actually verbatim minor out. Nao is saving the region from melting. Yep agree Pna is still bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was extremely close.....it was a net gain due to the N stream dropping in faster, but it also looked like some of that was negated by the s stream being faster, as well....or else that may have been a hit this run. Yeah but a definite improvement overall. Still minor verbatim but I think an ivt trof is often one of the ways the models start to resolve these and you get a legit hit in later runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Definitely have to get my upgraded yak trax quickly I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’m out- have a big time long work up tomorrow-need to be there by 7:45AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 ENE definitely in the game for the southern vort with late phase nw ticks inside d5. The rest of us watch from the sidelines handing them water as they hyperventilate over each model cycle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ENE definitely in the game for the southern vort with late phase nw ticks inside d5. The rest of us watch from the sidelines handing them water as they hyperventilate over each model cycle. Funny, the GFS 6 day snowfall map is about 12" here, 2.5" ORH and like .2" for rev lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny, the GFS 6 day snowfall map is about 12" here, 2.5" ORH and like .2" for rev lol Even the tolland teenager is in it. I think this could start coming together over the weekend. The flow is still progressive which limits how early the nstream can dive in, and thus how far west this can trend. I’d hedge towards a moderate hit for ENE if I had to. Or I can take the wolfie approach and straddle the fence for as long as possible while growling at everything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even the tolland teenager is in it. I think this could start coming together over the weekend. The flow is still progressive which limits how early the nstream can dive in, and thus how far west this can trend. I’d hedge towards a moderate hit for ENE if I had to. Or I can take the wolfie approach and straddle the fence for as long as possible while growling at everything else. Yea, this has time to hit everyone. I was just commenting on the run output...made me laugh. The period I picked back in early Novie for the largest event of an active month of December was the week of 12/19 to 12/26, so we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this has time to hit everyone. I was just commenting on the run output...made me laugh. The period I picked back in early Novie for the largest event of an active month of December was the week of 12/19 to 12/26, so we'll see. Yup. Pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This is very close Potent northern stream and southern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Umm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 In my opinion we will get a major nor’easter 6-7 days from now. The North Atlantic blocking is strong and well established. That southern storm isn’t going anywhere with the block in place, I don’t see that escaping out to sea. Due to the severe North Atlantic blocking and ridging out west, I believe this the northern stream will dig even more than the models are saying right now. I don’t buy a progressive solution at all, not with that severe North Atlantic in place. The models have the flow a bit too progressive, but that has been correcting more amplified on recent runs, leading the the low coming back to the north and west. im thinking we see a slow moving Miller B nor’easter, the ridge out west is not as sharp as I would like, but it is positioned over Idaho. That is fairly far west, enough that when the models abandon the progressive flow idea (which I believe they will if the blocking is that strong), this storm is going to not only continue trending north and west but it will get stronger as well due to the northern stream digging more and phasing earlier. I do think it’s time to start planning ahead and stocking up on everything we need this weekend, due to potential blizzard conditions in eastern mass during this time frame. I was keeping an eye on it but wasn’t too sure a few days ago due to the trough out west, but as the models have trended towards having a transient well place ridge during that time frame, it looks like everything is coming together now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: This is very close Potent northern stream and southern stream energy Those isobars are packed tightly too, I remember from a Bernie Rayno video a few years ago he mentioned that this is an indicator of high winds. If that low comes up the coast (doesn’t look like it does this run), that will be a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: Those isobars are packed tightly too, I remember from a Bernie Rayno video a few years ago he mentioned that this is an indicator of high winds. If that low comes up the coast (doesn’t look like it does this run), that will be a blizzard. Not a blizzard at all but a noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 You’re a mean one.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even the tolland teenager is in it. I think this could start coming together over the weekend. The flow is still progressive which limits how early the nstream can dive in, and thus how far west this can trend. I’d hedge towards a moderate hit for ENE if I had to. Or I can take the wolfie approach and straddle the fence for as long as possible while growling at everything else. Since you mentioned me Luke…I’ll add that I don’t straddle the fence, especially when we’re a week out, and the models are trending and trying to sort things out. And this isn’t a growl, but Personally, I think your calls of always deferring to ENE as getting a potential hit, and the rest of the region being largely missed, is ludicrous at this lead time. So I guess we’re even in how we feel on each other’s forecasting ideas. No fence riding here, imo it’s way too early to say who, if anybody will be affected by this so called potential, when it’s clearly still almost a week away. Most likely this thing will be gone or a cutter in a few runs anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You’re a mean one.., 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even the tolland teenager is in it. I think this could start coming together over the weekend. The flow is still progressive which limits how early the nstream can dive in, and thus how far west this can trend. I’d hedge towards a moderate hit for ENE if I had to. Or I can take the wolfie approach and straddle the fence for as long as possible while growling at everything else. Up all night sucking back spliffs I see. Lots of ensemble agreement on a hit Xmas Eve. And I don’t mean of your water bong 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’m not excited about next week. We neeed a lot to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The one model attempting something (gfs) lost the stupid inverted trough at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 hours ago, weathafella said: I’m out- have a big time long work up tomorrow-need to be there by 7:45AM. Good luck this morning, may you find some answers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The one model attempting something (gfs) lost the stupid inverted trough at 6z You’re close. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not excited about next week. We neeed a lot to work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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