December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Go Kart Mozart]

That cold front diving into the convergence cone off the Carolina's could be a big deal: 

[CoastalWx]

Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting.

This will sound strange coming from me, but I would sacrifice a KU for a moderate event starting late xmas eve PM into xmas PM.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting.

12z GFS is a good example of that NAO block doing a lot of dirty work. Notice how every system that makes an attempt to go west of us gets crunched underneath.

[Hazey]

That system crawling up the coast on the 22-23rd ish is showing subtle signs it wants to be more of a player than just wide right. it's be creeping closer each run. Might not amount to anything though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Hazey said:

That system crawling up the coast on the 22-23rd ish is showing subtle signs it wants to be more of a player than just wide right. it's be creeping closer each run. Might not amount to anything though.

Too bad the streams are so discrete.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister.  Bad weather means staying at home alone. 

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GFS is a good example of that NAO block doing a lot of dirty work. Notice how every system that makes an attempt to go west of us gets crunched underneath.

Love the fact that accums are down to central Jersey. 

Buffer for SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister.  Bad weather means staying at home alone. 

Miller B east ; 0

[Sugarloaf1989]

60-61F around here right now with partial sunshine. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everything blows up east on the ensembles....great pattern for New Foundland

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke.

Things can pop quick in this..we watch. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke.

I know there is still time for this whole thing to flip to some raging Grinch cutter....But at least at this point it looks like seasonable weather for the holidays, with a chance of wintry weather....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I know there is still time for this whole thing to flip to some raging Grinch cutter....But at least at this point it looks like seasonable weather for the holidays, with a chance of wintry weather....

Not gonna grinch.

[leo2000]

All I want for Christmas is a nuke Blizzard!

[Sugarloaf1989]

BDL at 62F, so the record has been broken. 60F was the old one from 1971.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke.

I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance...  We can see below, close!  That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles.   

ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead.   Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn'

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance...  We can see below, close!  That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles.   

ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead.   Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn'

Euro looked quite interesting for that date too. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister.  Bad weather means staying at home alone. 

What do you have for a vehicle?

[ORH_wxman]

OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event.

One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too.

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

What do you have for a vehicle?

Volvoxc70.  But I'm disabled and if I get stuck I can't walk in the snow.  And I have to take I-84 which has alot of road construction. I might leave early, but then I wouldn't see my son for Christmas Day. 

[MJO812]

Euro moved closer to a colder solution for Christmas 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event.

One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too.

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

Yeah agreed... I think that period 22 -25th is still on the table...  It'd be ( I think? ) the 22nd event these models toyed with 4 days back, but lost it.  But that chart above is/are a part of the moving pieces back then, still being negotiated in these runs now...  I don't think - duh - at D7+ it is too much to ask for this to modulate back into significance.

I just you know honestly I wouldn't really be hitting at it, but these blocking nodes, Greenland ( and trending W by the way ...) and -(WPO;EPO), are evolving, ..which means no one from Colorado to NF is safe at this point.   interesting

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

That's very interesting you see it on the EPS but not the OP...or actually maybe it really isn't that interesting. Could it be a smoothing issue? Or maybe it just indicates that there are a ton more members hinting at such a look?

Also, it is interesting to note on the OP you have that cut-off low off the coast...so is that really a piece of the PV lobe there on the EPS or is it just there is enough of a weakness with that ridge to allow interaction between that deep trough into central Canada and the cut-off low?

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

Sell OP.

Buy EPS.

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough.

 

Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking

 

 

[512high]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough.

 

Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking

 

 

I think you or Ray and others mentioned that in January, any major difference from say a week or go? Meaning hanging around longer ?

[dendrite]

What a miserable day. 39.6° and heavy fog off of a high of 41°. The front is on the north side of CON right now. MHT airport was partly sunny and 56° on the car thermo…upper 40s and BKN at CON. You hit that cold air/fog like a wall.