December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AWT

[EasternLI]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Question for whoever, what do easterlies in the Indian ocean typically represent? That will happen as the ones west of the dateline die off and shift well east to off the central American coast.

 

Grabbed this from NOAA's MJO update. 850 VP and wind anomalies. These are phases 6, 7, 8. Looks phase 7 like getting close to 8 at the very end?

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I am 100% messing with him. 

Lol.. I feel like the watcher and protector of the clan. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Stupid Euro MJO is going back to 6 and then to 7. Typhoon causing madness?

That looping stall/hesitation has been progged that way for about 10 days to 2 weeks actually - in other words, all along.  I'm not sure I agree with those tweet authors, that it is effecting shit frankly.  That loop was there before Rai was itching it's daddy's pants.

It's really more remarkable that circus act appears actually destined to occur, proving ...holy shit, the models are capable of verifying discrete permutation like that.  

That said, the fact that "Rai" 's "recurve forecast" is delayed until the China Sea longitude ...strikes me as not coincidentally linked to the notion that Phase 7-2 (or the left side of the RMM) are in "destructive" interference with the La Nina footprint of the N. hemisphere - this latter aspect, according to CPC's weekly PDF publications disseminated weekly.  In fact, as of the 13th just recently here,

"...This MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure as it moves near the Date Line, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts..."

Those that want to use the MJO to modulate the hemisphere ( for better or worse and one's leveraging, notwithstanding LOL ), they really should absorb what that means. 

It means, the MJO could be entirely meaningless.  

That said, it also may be open to interpretation - as CPC said above... 'unclear,' which doesn't mean no influence. It means the wave integrity is in question - I gather that the 'other side' of that loop some of this may get more clear, but that is a guess.

If the hemisphere was in constructive interference, Rai probably comes/pulled out earlier along present track trajectory, and then it's influx of latent heat into the westerlies would go on to help matters.   But here's the thing... the EPS and GEFs mean ( as is no novel observation at this point ! ) are heavily agreed upon a significant NE Pacific blocking episode....One so massive, in fact, that the end of their runs...they terminate out to entropy while still some vestiges of that, echoing like a haunt. What is interesting there is ... that is not very La Nina either.  It's as though we have two interim -time scaled teleconnectors, the MJO and the AB Phase of the N. Pacific, in an epic battle against the La Nina... 

Not sure if RNA/-PNA is really that connected to the La Nina, but either way...the whole f'n planet is in destructive interference with all these narrative understandings in conflict. 

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep...I sort of hinted at that. I'm not looking for a KU look either....but there are some things that make me a little reserved that's all. I have a feeling people have their hopes a little too high. 

I have no issues with you telling it like it is. I appreciate that.  But your original post was largely negative Scott.  From what you were saying, it sounded like the whole thing fell apart overnight(which we’ve also seen before). 
 

And nobody(especially me) is balls deep at all.  Will’s post this morning is completely opposite of yours. He loves the look. And you aren’t as thrilled. That’s cool..it’s good to have differing opinions.  
 

Chances are all we are and should be expecting in a conducive pattern…but we can completely strike out for sure, I’ve seen it happen as we all have. No guarantees in weather.  I think 99% of us completely get the idea of keeping expectations in check. I never was, or am I now thinking epic. But it’s good look as is in my humble and unprofessional opinion.    
 

You’re probably right…we may have been talking past each other…It’s all good. No worries. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

 

I have to agree with CoastalWx. You guys know from some of my post that I'm mr. Optimistic and I don't like negative or cry baby parties. But, he is right in the sense that it's not the most optimal pattern. Everything has to line up just right in order for us to get I'm much better winter pattern going. Basically, it's not set in stone oh, that's what he saying. I'm sure he wants to have an epic winter as much as I do and everyone else here. But the pattern is not set up to have that with a 100% guarantee. We've been in a very volatile pattern, hence the warm warm temperatures we've had as of late. I'm hoping now that the pattern changes and we all get what we want to see

we are having an epic winter

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I have no issues with you telling it like it is. I appreciate that.  But your original post was largely negative Scott.  From what you were saying, it sounded like the whole thing fell apart overnight(which we’ve also seen before). 
 

And nobody(especially me) is balls deep at all.  Will’s post this morning is completely opposite of yours. He loves the look. And you aren’t as thrilled. That’s cool..it’s good to have differing opinions.  
 

Chances are all we are and should be expecting in a conducive pattern…but we can completely strike out for sure, I’ve seen it happen as we all have. No guarantees in weather.  I think 99% of us completely get the idea of keeping expectations in check. I never was, or am I now thinking epic. But it’s good look as is in my humble and unprofessional opinion.    
 

You’re probably right…we may have been talking past each other…It’s all good. No worries. 

I honestly don't know what else to say.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly don't know what else to say.   

Snow

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snow

I guess so. LOL. Feet and feet of it. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I guess so. LOL. Feet and feet of it. 

That's all? What a debbie.

[CoastalWx]

Wolfie, I see what you mean about my first post, but there are successive posts after where I tried to communicate my thoughts. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie, I see what you mean about my first post, but there are successive posts after where I tried to communicate my thoughts. 

Ya I understand pal. We’re good Scott. I see your point. And mine was only that I wasn’t expecting Epic.  I like the look going forward, and let’s hope we get some swings at some stuff. 

[George001]

The trough out west could definitely be an issue, but as long as we have North Atlantic blocking there will be chances at big nor’easters. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Because the 2010-2011 stuff.....let’s pump the brakes on that. It’s an ok look. 

Didn’t March 2018 start with a trough out west and then once that went away the epic pattern set in? Maybe we have to wait a bit, but even if we miss in late December the North Atlantic blocking isn’t showing any signs of weakening. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The trough out west could definitely be an issue, but as long as we have North Atlantic blocking there will be chances at big nor’easters. 

Huge coastals aren't typical in this pattern....they can happen, but more likely you;ll get SWFE and redevelopers and overrunning events. The NAO block is very important in this type of pattern because without it, cutters have an easier time getting west of us rather than being forced underneath. You can still get cutters in this pattern, but it's just harder....you need a solid phasing event.

[ORH_wxman]

People need to think of patterns in terms of probabilities or chances. For example, lets say in a really average/medicore pattern we have a 2 in 8 shot of getting a solid snow event in any given 10 day period. In a garbage pattern its maybe 0 or 1 in 8. In an epic pattern, maybe we have a 6 in 8 shot. In a pretty good pattern, maybe it's 4 or 5 in 8.

The point is, you "load the dice" from the baseline probability in a pattern that deviates from the baseline. So in a shitty pattern, you load the dice against you, in a good pattern, you start loading the dice in your favor. There are no guarantees, but you will gladly play the game with loaded dice in your favor since eventually, the law of large numbers will work out in your favor. Same thing applies when looking at patterns.

 

I know it's just easier to demand a binary answer on whether big snows are coming or not....but hopefully the above helps visualize the probability angle a little better.

[weatherwiz]

What would be nice is if we could get a winter with a more active southern stream as opposed to just an active northern stream. I understand we can still get solid storms and such with an active northern stream but the way the hemispheric pattern has been configured in the winter months the past several years we have not had much luck with just northern stream alone. 

Even if you get -NAO's involved...I think when it comes to a predominately northern stream driven pattern, it becomes much more complex than just having a -NAO or -AO...this is where structure not only becomes even more important but how the NAO is evolving as northern stream energy is arriving. You'll likely to get a better support from the NAO is the NAO is transition as this will likely result in changing height configurations over the Northeast and offers a better chance to shunt a storm south. 

But notice how the past few...maybe even several winter we continue to see the exact same theme with modeling in the long-range. Just constant "pattern looks good" outputs and all these outputs are in a specific time range which is typically beyond D10...sometimes even as close as D6 then everything falls apart. This goes to show we need big changes and support from other domains (not just the Arctic). We have seen favorable patterns unfold but they have typically been very brief and short-lived and it's b/c the Pacific has been such garbage and the Pacific really plays a significant role in the overall pattern configuration...the Arctic can influence the structure of the pattern but a coupling of the two would really end this theme of "looking good in the long-range to becoming crap by the medium-range".

[SnowGoose69]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Huge coastals aren't typical in this pattern....they can happen, but more likely you;ll get SWFE and redevelopers and overrunning events. The NAO block is very important in this type of pattern because without it, cutters have an easier time getting west of us rather than being forced underneath. You can still get cutters in this pattern, but it's just harder....you need a solid phasing event.

The problem in the last decade now is that it seems everything DOES phase.  I cannot count how many times down here we've had a setup where I said if this was 1990 this would be a big front end snow but the system became a 985 low over Missouri whereas 25-30 years ago it would not have...whether this is in part due somehow to the crazy NATL SSTs I don't know but it seems we don't get as many dampening shortwaves in these patterns anymore

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem in the last decade now is that it seems everything DOES phase.  I cannot count how many times down here we've had a setup where I said if this was 1990 this would be a big front end snow but the system became a 985 low over Missouri whereas 25-30 years ago it would not have...whether this is in part due somehow to the crazy NATL SSTs I don't know but it seems we don't get as many dampening shortwaves in these patterns anymore

@Typhoon Tip AKA Mr. Hadley may beg to differ....

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What would be nice is if we could get a winter with a more active southern stream as opposed to just an active northern stream. I understand we can still get solid storms and such with an active northern stream but the way the hemispheric pattern has been configured in the winter months the past several years we have not had much luck with just northern stream alone. 

Even if you get -NAO's involved...I think when it comes to a predominately northern stream driven pattern, it becomes much more complex than just having a -NAO or -AO...this is where structure not only becomes even more important but how the NAO is evolving as northern stream energy is arriving. You'll likely to get a better support from the NAO is the NAO is transition as this will likely result in changing height configurations over the Northeast and offers a better chance to shunt a storm south. 

But notice how the past few...maybe even several winter we continue to see the exact same theme with modeling in the long-range. Just constant "pattern looks good" outputs and all these outputs are in a specific time range which is typically beyond D10...sometimes even as close as D6 then everything falls apart. This goes to show we need big changes and support from other domains (not just the Arctic). We have seen favorable patterns unfold but they have typically been very brief and short-lived and it's b/c the Pacific has been such garbage and the Pacific really plays a significant role in the overall pattern configuration...the Arctic can influence the structure of the pattern but a coupling of the two would really end this theme of "looking good in the long-range to becoming crap by the medium-range".

Yes, but the more favorable regime has actually been expedited of late, since burgeoning into existence on guidance, not pushed back.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What would be nice is if we could get a winter with a more active southern stream as opposed to just an active northern stream. I understand we can still get solid storms and such with an active northern stream but the way the hemispheric pattern has been configured in the winter months the past several years we have not had much luck with just northern stream alone. 

Even if you get -NAO's involved...I think when it comes to a predominately northern stream driven pattern, it becomes much more complex than just having a -NAO or -AO...this is where structure not only becomes even more important but how the NAO is evolving as northern stream energy is arriving. You'll likely to get a better support from the NAO is the NAO is transition as this will likely result in changing height configurations over the Northeast and offers a better chance to shunt a storm south. 

But notice how the past few...maybe even several winter we continue to see the exact same theme with modeling in the long-range. Just constant "pattern looks good" outputs and all these outputs are in a specific time range which is typically beyond D10...sometimes even as close as D6 then everything falls apart. This goes to show we need big changes and support from other domains (not just the Arctic). We have seen favorable patterns unfold but they have typically been very brief and short-lived and it's b/c the Pacific has been such garbage and the Pacific really plays a significant role in the overall pattern configuration...the Arctic can influence the structure of the pattern but a coupling of the two would really end this theme of "looking good in the long-range to becoming crap by the medium-range".

I tossed you 'like' on this because yar ...  I've been rather truculent about these observation ... over and over again, for years - specifically the bold abv.   But it's all good - I've noticed with the general public, mantras seemingly have to be repeated 100 times to move the needle of awareness 1%  - occupational hazard 'falling on deaf ears'

The phenomenon that I have been trying to bring to the attention to the dopamine drip D9 bomb zombies ... ( relax I'm kidding!) is that these damn things keep getting corrected less, as they move from that range to D6 ... D4 ... sometimes not existing at all by the time they are D2 or...some paltry version of the original vision. I've metaphorically referred to this as the moon rising over the horizon phenomenon, where it looks ginormous at first, but then shrinks as it rises...  Anyway, I suspect the velocity, specifically as it is physically related to the gradient saturation and is handled by the models, is the problem there.  In basic wave mechanics - to wit ... all of the atmosphere is a stage for basic wave mechanics merely operating at a giant scale, with various influences of constructive or destructive interfering inputs, but the waves are guided, in principle, by the same.   I realize I've likely lost most in this haha ... but for shits and giggles, it looks like this

 

Anyway... it seems for some reason the models "lower" the value of V in that squared term ...out in time, where they are then having to run to run correct the toward higher.  Supposition as to a cause, though.  You can set this up algebraically, and solve for V's affect on these terms at all scales, out in time, and if the models are slowing things down erroneously, that is going to screw up the X and Y dimensions of the wave space, and intuitively, it does lend to seeing why these events get diminished - change V on the next run, effects these partials.  It could be that the models try to relax the gradient, --> less velocity, and then as the the runs go by... add more gradient, adds more V ..blows up the original vision.

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem in the last decade now is that it seems everything DOES phase.  I cannot count how many times down here we've had a setup where I said if this was 1990 this would be a big front end snow but the system became a 985 low over Missouri whereas 25-30 years ago it would not have...whether this is in part due somehow to the crazy NATL SSTs I don't know but it seems we don't get as many dampening shortwaves in these patterns anymore

Hmmm. I recall plenty of times where I got rear ended in 1990 by lows well to the west. LOL. I'm not sure if evidence suggests storms "phase" more recently. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmmm. I recall plenty of times where I got rear ended in 1990 by lows well to the west. LOL. I'm not sure if evidence suggests storms "phase" more recently. 

Agree.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've actually noticed the middling wave interations/stream timings have been more off, and that phasing is rarer, EXCEPT for big events, which those have a slightly greater frequency - and why we've been seeing things like yesterday, and that NS/NF cat 3 -scaled blizzard... historic in scale.  We've been breaking records, case anyone hasn't noticed, as like a "weather culture" at this point.  Folks are expecting it - digress.

It's like lowering the numbers of mid-grade phases, and increasing by a little, at the big kahoona end.  

I betcha.... I'd be willing to hunch that the energy budget of the atmosphere is balanced that way...  2 mids = 1 big in a sloppy sense?  So we reduce the mids by a couple ... but get 87 kts out in Goodland Kansa in clear air in dust.   ha

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but the more favorable regime has actually been expedited of late, since burgeoning into existence on guidance, not pushed back.

No disagreement there. 

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tossed you 'like' on this because yar ...  I've been rather truculent about these observation ... over and over again, for years - specifically the bold abv.   But it's all good - I've noticed with the general public, mantras seemingly have to be repeated 100 times to move the needle of awareness 1%  - occupational hazard 'falling on deaf ears'

The phenomenon that I have been repeating trying to bring to the attention of the dopamine drip D9 bomb zombies ...is that these damn things keep getting corrected less, as they move from that range to D6 ... D4 ... sometimes not existing at all by the time they are D2 or...some paltry version of the original vision. I've metaphorically referred to this as the moon rising over the horizon phenomenon, where it looks ginormous at first, but then shrinks as it rises...  Anyway, I suspect the velocity - for the umpteenth time - as it is physically related to the gradient saturation is the problem there.  In basic wave mechanics - to wit ... all of the atmosphere is a stage for basic wave mechanics merely operating at a giant scale, with various influences of constructive or destructive interfering inputs, but the waves are guided, in principle, by the same.   I realize I've likely lost most in this haha ... but for shits and giggles, it looks like this

 

Anyway... it seems for some reason the models "lower" the value of V in that squared term ...out in time, where they are then having to run to run correct the toward higher.  Supposition as to a cause, though.  You can set this up algebraically, and solve for V's affect on these terms at all scales, out in time, and if the models are slowing things down erroneously, that is going to screw up the X and Y dimensions of the wave space, and intuitively, it does lend to seeing why these events get diminished - change V on the next run, effects these partials.

 

 

 

 

You do raise a good point with this. I've often wondered if with the various updates to the models over the past several years if there were some changes to some of these equations...either more weight being placed on a specific component, maybe not enough weight, or just a slight altering of how these are calculated. Or maybe it's just the pattern has been so complex with so many shortwaves the models get confused. 

I've also wondered if perhaps going into these higher resolution with more grid points is actually hurting model performance in some regards. First off, let's not confuse this with all models...obviously we have models designated for meso-scale, short-range, medium-range, and long-range. But even some of these more global models (I guess you can call it) they are being converted into these super high complex formulas with much more grid points and a much smaller spatial resolution...this may be very good for those meso-scale models and meso-scale forecasting but it might be hell for medium/long-range as any "blip" or noise that may be picked up due to the fineness of the scale can probably largely throw off the output. This can probably be very true and throw off such equations such as the zonal horizontal momentum equation, meridional horizontal momentum equation, vorticity equation, and (maybe) continuity equation.

 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I agree on the PNA in January....been saying that. Like I said yesterday, everything has pushed back a bit from my original thoughts in early Novie.

I think that last part is more of a concern south of us. We will be cold enough to snow here...just not frigid...at least right away.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree on the PNA in January....been saying that. Like I said yesterday, everything has pushed back a bit from my original thoughts in early Novie.

I think that last part is more of a concern south of us. We will be cold enough to snow here...just not frigid...at least right away.

Agree. I’m more optimistic to start January down here but can’t rule something out with that block. You guys will get started earlier then that. I think the tweet sums up what @CoastalWx was saying this morning…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Found some cold air on the GFS for the Warmistas.  Christmas Eve and Christmas  Day may be very cold once that clipper passes through.