SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I think you're misinterpreting what he said. He's not canceling winter, go back and read all of his posts. What he saying is the pattern is not giving him the warm and fuzzies that everyone thinks it's going to be. I guarantee you he wants to have a snowy and epic pattern as much as you or everyone else. Come on guys, read between the lines. Get your panties out of a bunch LOL no one's trying to pounce on a good morning woosh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like people pounce every time you say something not to the like of epicosity. If he is balls deep in snow, congrats. It's not bad, I'm just not sold on epic. Keep telling it like it is, let them flail around…they can’t be helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I’m not sure anyone said epic snow/pattern is forthcoming. Just that it is conducive to larger events being possible 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stupid Euro MJO is going back to 6 and then to 7. Typhoon causing madness? I don't know why anyone locked in 8...that was always iffy. 7, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I think you're misinterpreting what he said. He's not canceling winter, go back and read all of his posts. What he saying is the pattern is not giving him the warm and fuzzies that everyone thinks it's going to be. I guarantee you he wants to have a snowy and epic pattern as much as you or everyone else. Come on guys, read between the lines. Get your panties out of a bunch LOL no one's trying to pounce on a good morning I am 100% messing with him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That mega -PNA isn't very exciting this time of year. The Atlantic blocking needs to be on steroids to compensate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I'll illustrate. Maybe we are talking past each other and this is also just for the next two weeks or so. I think I feel better having this role into January. Anyways, I feel like I want to see these features more east for something more epic. Get that cold, but also the baroclinic zone a bit to the east. We do have that Greenland ridge and confluence east of us, but it may not force everything under us. It also may be a little on the drier side with that type of flow over us..but again that is a mean and doesn't show daily details. We will have some chances I think...just not sold on the epic look, which for whatever reason caused angst. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That mega -PNA isn't very exciting this time of year. The Atlantic blocking needs to be on steroids to compensate. Not for us. For NJ yes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe I’m the contrarian, but I don’t get the warm and fuzzies that others get in this pattern. It’s most certainly better than what we have had, but a few things where I’m like eh. The -PNA is massive. While that could be used to help throw out s/w’s, it’s gonna want to send things north too. So that’s where the -NAO helps. That should help keep things more south, but I’m not sold on that being a lock if we get a stronger system. It’s also not a cold look overall. Maybe we get a little BN in temps at times, but I wouldn’t mind it a little colder. The other thing is the zonal look on the mean. I know it’s a mean and won’t capture individual events, but it’s rather zonal so we may see a lot of small deals which is fine I guess? Maybe it’s me, but I don’t have the excitement as some do. That's probably my fault for mentioning 2010-2011....all I meant was that this is the type of pattern that we had that season. However, Will mentioned the differences, mainly being that the RNA is immense this year, and perhaps the NAO doesn't make it as far west. Anyway, I clearly stated not to expect 60" in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing changed. Given what we have now, anything is good lol. I just see some stuff that makes me not sold on an epic look. I explained above regarding next two weeks. The majority of our snowfall comes in patterns that are not epic, as those type of patterns are anomalous for a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That pattern is like a carbon copy of Dec 1970....obviously it can produce....but similar patterns (like Jan 1969) also show you how you get kind of skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The majority of our snowfall comes in patterns that are not epic, as those type of patterns are anomalous for a reason. Yep...I sort of hinted at that. I'm not looking for a KU look either....but there are some things that make me a little reserved that's all. I have a feeling people have their hopes a little too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, 512high said: I "think" what people are upset about is you stated, maybe a week ago, you like the look AFTER Christmas......I think even Ray's "early" call yesterday was based on data at that moment, it seems 72 hours out or so, everything just goes down the shi**er quick, just my two cents I tried to incorporate a range of possibilities with the ranges in that First Call map..the idea is to hone in more for the Final one. But if I'm being honest with myself, I felt it was too aggressive right after I released it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep...I sort of hinted at that. I'm not looking for a KU look either....but there are some things that make me a little reserved that's all. I have a feeling people have their hopes a little too high. I actually went out of my way to state in that write up that a KU magnitude event was not expected in December, but there was a modest shot in early January. This looks like a snowy pattern to me, but that doesn't have to mean a 12/23/97 or 12/14/92 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That pattern is like a carbon copy of Dec 1970....obviously it can produce....but similar patterns (like Jan 1969) also show you how you get kind of skunked. Even epic patterns can shit the bed.....you just can't lock anything. BTW, Feb 1969 shows you how it usually evens out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I actually went out of my way to state in that write up that a KU magnitude event was not expected in December, but there was a modest shot in early January. This looks like a snowy pattern to me, but that doesn't have to mean a 12/23/97 or 12/14/92 deal. It's KU or bust for many people Nothing wrong with a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even epic patterns can shit the bed.....you just can't lock anything. BTW, Feb 1969 shows you how it usually evens out lol At the end of the day, people will measure the pattern in snowfall. Not potential. We all know this. We've gotten skunked in good patterns in the past with meltdowns and then all of the sudden we get hit and all the melts get relegated to a wall of shame satire archive (see late January 2013/earl Feb 2013 before the blizzard showed up....or early/mid Jan 2015 before the snow started). Doesn't mean we get an epic stretch...people shouldn't expect it. But I feel pretty good about an active stretch with plenty of chances going forward....and some of those are going to hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know why anyone locked in 8...that was always iffy. 7, yes. Not only that but models don't particularly handle MJO evolution past several days out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Not only that but models don't particularly handle MJO evolution past several days out very well. I am fine with MJO 7...its form the tri state region and points south that shouldn't be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That Typhoon blew up into a Cat 5. Some of those diagrams will be skewed by that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Question for whoever, what do easterlies in the Indian ocean typically represent? That will happen as the ones west of the dateline die off and shift well east to off the central American coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am fine with MJO 7...its form the tri state region and points south that shouldn't be. isn't MJO 8 pretty rare anyways? (I'm not much of an MJO expert) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll illustrate. Maybe we are talking past each other and this is also just for the next two weeks or so. I think I feel better having this role into January. Anyways, I feel like I want to see these features more east for something more epic. Get that cold, but also the baroclinic zone a bit to the east. We do have that Greenland ridge and confluence east of us, but it may not force everything under us. It also may be a little on the drier side with that type of flow over us..but again that is a mean and doesn't show daily details. We will have some chances I think...just not sold on the epic look, which for whatever reason caused angst. Apps runner? Asking for a friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 It's not impossible that the 22nd ( altho, perhaps adjusted to more like 22.5 or 23rd) could come back, too - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The GEFS are pretty cold post Christmas. below avg anomalies right thru New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: The GEFS are pretty cold post Christmas. below avg anomalies right thru New Years They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That mega -PNA isn't very exciting this time of year. The Atlantic blocking needs to be on steroids to compensate. NO 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll illustrate. Maybe we are talking past each other and this is also just for the next two weeks or so. I think I feel better having this role into January. Anyways, I feel like I want to see these features more east for something more epic. Get that cold, but also the baroclinic zone a bit to the east. We do have that Greenland ridge and confluence east of us, but it may not force everything under us. It also may be a little on the drier side with that type of flow over us..but again that is a mean and doesn't show daily details. We will have some chances I think...just not sold on the epic look, which for whatever reason caused angst. I see what you mean about everything being a bit too far to the east when looping ensembles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like people pounce every time you say something not to the like of epicosity. If he is balls deep in snow, congrats. It's not bad, I'm just not sold on epic. "Epicosity" Tm* Ginx 2010-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The older I get the more I just try to look at what’s right in front of me. Our first solid snowstorm of the year, followed by seasonably cold weather and possibilities over the next 10 days. That’s good enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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