Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: And Route 495 I can say the same for 95 being the rain snow line. There's many times where north of 95 or west of 95 it's snow and south and east of 95 is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: It seems like I kind of rushed everything a hair in my outlook, and the early Dec warmup following the coolish Novie was more pronounced and protracted than postulated. I never mowed again after returning from Africa, so while it wasn't a lot, some areas needed touching up. I have one oak in my neighbor's yard that haunts me into December, as they all blow to me on west winds, which is the majority of the time...its finally done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: Forkys face as he realizes how wrong he was . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: I am guessing the only thing that would be a concern is lack of precipitation/dry? Otherwise that's a great blocking setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Anyways lets see what the NAM does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: How long do you think it's sticking around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Anyways lets see what the NAM does. Or maybe some won't? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 storms moving NE at 85 mph through Nebraska . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Maybe we don't want to see the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 NAM is going to be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I'll enjoy my sleet to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Way north actually…..doesn’t look like the euro either…. Kind of weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Nam @hr 84 is like posting a hr 384 clown map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Nam @hr 84 is like posting a hr 384 clown map. It's always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 18z NAM wasn't just north, but it was weaker with confluence, so you dont get that nice fronto thump....the precip is more diffuse. Hopefully it's just a happy hour sauce run....but who knows. I do expect this to trend north at some point, but my hope is that we get a few ticks colder before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 H5 looked like somebody sprayed buckshot on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, kdxken said: How long do you think it's sticking around? Your guess is prob as good as mine. But there are some good signs that it will be around for at least 2-3 weeks....the PV really gets stretched and takes a good hit, so that will want to promote blocking sticking around for more than just a week or so....the weeklies have been hinting at this staying around for a few weeks as well....and the ensembles have been showing a very strong signal for so far out in the run. Usually when you add all those up, it's a sign that the pattern isn't just a 7-10 day transient blip....we're likely going to have the blocking around well into January. But as we all know, LR forecasting is the ultimate humbling hobby, so things could change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Hey I have a WWA for tonight: https://www.weather.gov/btv/headlines .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Most areas along and east of the Green Mountains in Vermont. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight, including the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin by late this afternoon and gradually mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over to all rain during the early morning hours on Thursday. Road temperatures will be cold enough to enhance the potential for freezing rain and difficult travel conditions. Big big winter in progress! NWS map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times... December 1970 looked a lot like that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 That's legit a carbon copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: December 1970 looked a lot like that. Where do i sign? 70-71 was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Icon is north too…. Hopefully 12z wasn’t the peak of the south movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 18z RGEM tickled colder. PRetty much keeps it all snow near or just north of the MA/CT border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z RGEM tickled colder. PRetty much keeps it all snow near or just north of the MA/CT border. We spared much rain here with that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: December 1970 looked a lot like that. One of my fav December analogs going in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We spared much rain here with that look? Really tight gradient there on rgem. Like, Foxborough def gets a decent hit of snow...tougher call for you. Right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Really tight gradient there on rgem. Like, Foxborough def gets a decent hit of snow...tougher call for you. Right on the line. Let’s hope for some cooler tics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Let’s hope for some cooler tics I think you would want 3"+ to ensure a white xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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