ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha...thats apparent now, but I wasn't out far enough. Yeah it is kind of competing narratives....colder usually means further south with precip, but in this case it does not. The main shortwave is actually stronger than 00z but the confluence to the north is also stronger....so the two trends combined produce a colder outcome but also a more robust precip shield......which is ideal. You want a juiceir shortwave but also not at the expense of cold....the way to get that is to also trend the confluence stronger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: What are we hoping for, a few inches of snow? A week before Christmas and next week looks cold and dry. Fingers crossed for snow otg. Yeah pretty much for Sat nite/ Sunday. Storm threat very much there next week in the Tuesday- Xmas Day timeframe. Models still sorting it out and offering different days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: What are we hoping for, a few inches of snow? A week before Christmas and next week looks cold and dry. Fingers crossed for snow otg. No, world peace 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I'll take a bit stronger s/w if we can thump a bit before 38 rain and then maybe hope for a little GGEM ending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The SLP is clearly quite a bit north from 00Z but the run is overall colder, esp with the frontend thump in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Maybe I'll hold onto a glaciated inch and send the kids out on sleds to get concussions like Ginx does. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 A bit more qpf this run also for the queens. Not sure places will approach 1.00 but it juiced up a bit from over night run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Looks like a solid 2-4” thump south of the pike before any mixing… can’t complain…. May end up a net gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, world peace Was asking because next week is dry, 2 or 3 inches of snow probably won't last till Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe I'll hold onto a glaciated inch and send the kids out on sleds to get concussions like Ginx does. Euro is probably a net gain overall…. 2-4” of snow to sleet ending as a bit of rain…. As you said:. Maybe we get the reach around back to snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Was asking because next week is dry, 2 or 3 inches of snow probably won't last till Christmas. No way to know if we get a storm or not in the 12/23-25 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 It is a bit less snow down in central CT and RI, far se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Was asking because next week is dry, 2 or 3 inches of snow probably won't last till Christmas. I'm not sure next week is dry as of yet. Your weather.com forecast won't reflect anything until its obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah pretty much for Sat nite/ Sunday. Storm threat very much there next week in the Tuesday- Xmas Day timeframe. Models still sorting it out and offering different days I'm heading to my sister's house on Christmas Day. Her house is 1,470'. Probably higher elevation than most on the forum in the East. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It is a bit less snow down in central CT and RI, far se MA. 00z had no snow south of HFD-PVD....this run has a few inches down in that zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro is probably a net gain overall…. 2-4” of snow to sleet ending as a bit of rain…. As you said:. Maybe we get the reach around back to snow at the end These initial thump with lighter onshore flow probably are ok for you. Quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z had no snow south of HFD-PVD....this run has a few inches down in that zone. Below there its less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Below there its less. I'm not sure I follow....below HFD-PVD is less than 00z? 00z had basically nothing south of them....and 12z had several inches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure I follow....below HFD-PVD is less than 00z? 00z had basically nothing south of them....and 12z had several inches. Take the Narcan and toggle both 00z and 12z snow grids and you will follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Tomorrow looks like record warmth. BDL record is 60F. NWS has the forecast at 64F here, north of BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Love how it's always north or south on models and never east or west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take the Narcan and toggle both 00z and 12z snow grids and you will follow. Your snow maps aside, this run looked better on the initial front end down there...there's a quick 2-3hr burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Tomorrow looks like record warmth. BDL record is 60F. NWS has the forecast at 64F here, north of BDL. And it probably won't mix out of the 30s/40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Your snow maps aside, this run looked better on the initial front end down there...there's a quick 2-3hr burst. Well, fine...I'm not arguing the meteorology, just reporting the raw output. Maybe its also just the narcan map because it can be stingy in low levels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take the Narcan and toggle both 00z and 12z snow grids and you will follow. That's funny that NARCAN is a lot more generous at 00z than you'd expect but less generous down there at 12z. That run looked definitively snowier to me down there than those snow maps would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These initial thump with lighter onshore flow probably are ok for you. Quite possible. I’ll take my chances with a euro look… probably would pound Saturday evening for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll take my chances with a euro look… probably would pound Saturday evening for a while You want a stronger thump to get anything worthwhile....with a marginal profile, a lighter precip shield was going to be pretty useless outside of the interior hills. That's why both the main shortwave and the confluence trending stronger at the same time is a better solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You want a stronger thump to get anything worthwhile....with a marginal profile, a lighter precip shield was going to be pretty useless outside of the interior hills. That's why both the main shortwave and the confluence trending stronger at the same time is a better solution. Right…. We need good rates… euro looks like it would provide that for a bit anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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