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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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Euro is a little too flat for 12/4...gets the south coast and Cape with some light snow though. Wouldn't take much though to get a nice stripe over the rest of the region....just need that shortwave a little more robust and not shredded as much in the flow.

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Based on what I have seen on the models the bigger storm threat is next Tuesday. Models previously had that storm as a massive rainstorm, but have trended towards a snowier solution (still rain for the coast, but snow inland CNE and NNE). I was skeptical at first but have noticed some blocking developing over Greenland. However, the blocking is on the weak side and there is still a trough out west. I hate seeing a trough in the west so I’m not really feeling this one for the coast. Still worth keeping an eye on though, hopefully the strength of the blocking increases, and the trough out west turns into a ridge. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is a little too flat for 12/4...gets the south coast and Cape with some light snow though. Wouldn't take much though to get a nice stripe over the rest of the region....just need that shortwave a little more robust and not shredded as much in the flow.

Not a bad look at this juncture… like you said… wouldn’t take much to turn that into a solid region wide advisory event.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track.

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I've been thinking about that. It hasn't gotten worse as we get closer. At least so far. 

In outlook we trust.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/6 is going to come in wintry on the Euro this run....prob a redeveloper look.

Just thinking back ..isn't this the same system the Euro had 3 days ago on a D9/10 run, that drove pressure to historic depths?

- perhaps this is coincidentally in the same timing window.  Not sure.  I had mused that the following run was an 'overcompensation' when it came in flat and devoid of anything, but this flat fast flow ...   remember the metaphor re the 'unmanned firehose'  

we flop -

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Where will you be?

 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Going away again? You were gone for the get together last week too. 

It's just work related. Meeting my remote team face to face finally. It's in TX. I missed March 2017 there, may as well miss this. 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

2007-08 incoming?

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh except for 3 weeks. How about 08-09 and everyone happy?

What you need to realize about the 2007-2008 season is that there was a PV displacement on February 22, 2008. Here is what evolved that spring

1634862174_May2008.png.19d82c3d1a079e030442856f482735f8.png1230442198_AM2008.png.feb516e1a31c90c31be4450dbaf33919.png

I anticipate a major disruption of the polar vortex about 1-4 weeks earlier this year, so you do the math.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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