ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Both GFS ad Ukie are in on the Saturday/Sat night event. GGEM isn't biting yet....suppressed and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both GFS ad Ukie are in on the Saturday/Sat night event. GGEM isn't biting yet....suppressed and flat. Icon has it too…. But it cuts across us so it’s mainly a NNE event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Pretty epic storm early next week on the canadian… just a bit to warm here verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Saturday night is JUST beyond the range of muthufukkas....which should tell us that it’s to be taken with a grain of salt for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Saturday night is JUST beyond the range of muthufukkas....which should tell us that it’s to be taken with a grain of salt for now. You're not locking in 5.5 days? Getting cautious these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Saturday night is JUST beyond the range of muthufukkas....which should tell us that it’s to be taken with a grain of salt for now. Yup, we gotta be patient this time, and see what things look like in a couple more days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, we gotta be patient this time, and see what things look like in a couple more days? As I look at a chilly but nice day I harken back to 6 days ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Euro is a little too flat for 12/4...gets the south coast and Cape with some light snow though. Wouldn't take much though to get a nice stripe over the rest of the region....just need that shortwave a little more robust and not shredded as much in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Kind of weak sauce on the euro for Saturday Night except south coast. Something to watch anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 GEFS at 12Z with the best Pacific look in a while in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Based on what I have seen on the models the bigger storm threat is next Tuesday. Models previously had that storm as a massive rainstorm, but have trended towards a snowier solution (still rain for the coast, but snow inland CNE and NNE). I was skeptical at first but have noticed some blocking developing over Greenland. However, the blocking is on the weak side and there is still a trough out west. I hate seeing a trough in the west so I’m not really feeling this one for the coast. Still worth keeping an eye on though, hopefully the strength of the blocking increases, and the trough out west turns into a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is a little too flat for 12/4...gets the south coast and Cape with some light snow though. Wouldn't take much though to get a nice stripe over the rest of the region....just need that shortwave a little more robust and not shredded as much in the flow. Not a bad look at this juncture… like you said… wouldn’t take much to turn that into a solid region wide advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 12/6 is going to come in wintry on the Euro this run....prob a redeveloper look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/6 is going to come in wintry on the Euro this run....prob a redeveloper look. Widespread moderate to heavy snow on this run for next Monday. What could go wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Yeah that's a big hit for 12/6 on Euro...only 7 more days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Widespread moderate to heavy snow on this run for next Monday. What could go wrong..... Quick--start a thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track. 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I've been thinking about that. It hasn't gotten worse as we get closer. At least so far. In outlook we trust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Quick--start a thread. Please, Nobody start one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Ugh. Well that was some porn. Although I won't be here, so you have that going for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/6 is going to come in wintry on the Euro this run....prob a redeveloper look. Just thinking back ..isn't this the same system the Euro had 3 days ago on a D9/10 run, that drove pressure to historic depths? - perhaps this is coincidentally in the same timing window. Not sure. I had mused that the following run was an 'overcompensation' when it came in flat and devoid of anything, but this flat fast flow ... remember the metaphor re the 'unmanned firehose' we flop - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 but even in the Euro.. the Dec 4 wave is hugely powerful. nada. hmm I don't know to question the Euro paltry result of that, or, pat it on the back for seeing the compression in the field as an inherent limitation - which it is... But, how much or how little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ugh. Well that was some porn. Although I won't be here, so you have that going for SNE. Where will you be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ugh. Well that was some porn. Although I won't be here, so you have that going for SNE. Going away again? You were gone for the get together last week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where will you be? 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Going away again? You were gone for the get together last week too. It's just work related. Meeting my remote team face to face finally. It's in TX. I missed March 2017 there, may as well miss this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Prob will only be one event. Saturday or Mondays . When models show two close to each other, it usually morphs into 1. So plan on Sunday/ Sunday night . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, weathafella said: 2007-08 incoming? 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Meh except for 3 weeks. How about 08-09 and everyone happy? What you need to realize about the 2007-2008 season is that there was a PV displacement on February 22, 2008. Here is what evolved that spring I anticipate a major disruption of the polar vortex about 1-4 weeks earlier this year, so you do the math. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Too bad the Pats aren't home next Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Prob will only be one event. Saturday or Mondays . When models show two close to each other, it usually morphs into 1. So plan on Sunday/ Sunday night . Or the first one can set up the 50/50 for the second a la Jan '15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ugh. Well that was some porn. Although I won't be here, so you have that going for SNE. Me neither so lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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