December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well the clown maps may be off and noisy a bit, but it could be that temps just aloft are a bit cooler when the precip burst comes in. For you and I, we'll need to keep an eye on surface temps.

Yeah… definitely looks like a non zero chance of accumulating snow…. We’ll see what happens over the next 2-3 days 

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You and your ice storms LOL. I'd much rather have sleet. The last thing I'd want is an ice storm. I would never want to have the damage and destruction and I stream can cause. Let alone losing power. Let's hope for sleet and snow

+1 I don't want that either.  Give me snow, sleet or plain rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS coming in colder 

 

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GEFS took a bump north from 06z, Looks pretty toasty.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Well who do you trust to read model output?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You decide, That's close to some taint here.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You decide.

#CTRAIN

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You decide, That's close to some taint here.

Need to look at individual members . My guess that’s what he was doing 

[CoastalWx]

Ahh the old model pulling from different geos. Can tell who wants what. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Need to look at individual members . My guess that’s what he was doing 

Exactly what you don't do, You look at all 31,  You look at the mean, That will tell by where that's tracking and possibly heading and there are several that are tracking further NW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Exactly what you don't do, You look at all 31,  You look at the mean, That will tell by where that's tracking and possibly heading and there are several that are tracking NW.

I am switching to OP at this range.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am switching to OP at this range.

0z, We will be right around day 3.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh the old model pulling from different geos. Can tell who wants what. 

Dryslot pulling out the GEFS to try to stop the bleeding 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

0z

Well, you do you.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you do you.

ha ha, I don't like where that GEFS is.

[weathafella]

Until you’re at 72 hours or less, ensembles are valuable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

ha ha, I don't like where that GEFS is.

If the OP Euro does that, then I will entertain it.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Dryslot pulling out the GEFS to try to stop the bleeding 

What bleeding? The ggem?  Hang on to that lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Until you’re at 72 hours or less, ensembles are valuable.

The European suite has been far more consistent, even if you want to cling to ENS.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Until you’re at 72 hours or less, ensembles are valuable.

Yeah, I will cut them off in that time frame too.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Exactly what you don't do, You look at all 31,  You look at the mean, That will tell by where that's tracking and possibly heading and there are several that are tracking further NW.

And probably several that are SE, both misleading the mean 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And probably several that are SE, both misleading the mean 

There pretty clustered.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I will cut them off in that time frame too.

I am not saying they should be universally ignored at this range, but in this case, given that that trend reversal is counter to the steadfast European suite and the GFS op, I am okay disregarding...for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not saying they should be universally ignored at this range, but in this case, given that that trend reversal is counter to the steadfast European suite and the GFS op, I am okay disregarding.

Yeah toss her

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not saying they should be universally ignored at this range, but in this case, given that that trend reversal is counter to the steadfast European suite and the GFS op, I am okay disregarding.

Not saying that the GFS or GEFS is right, But the euro hasn't been steadfast either, The only flag that i still see is that the 06z EPS took a good bump north too, But we shall see here at 12z.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Is there anything storm wise next week? I thought there was something early next week.  The extended forecast I just looked at has next week dry and cold.

https://www.theweather.com/southwood-acres.htm

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What bleeding? The ggem?  Hang on to that lol

If the op was warm and ensembles colder he would be all over the GEFS. He's heavy, heavy invested in this one.

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

If the op was warm and ensembles colder he would ba all over the GEFS. He's heavy, heavy invested in this one.

Oh, He all in, No ICON mention either.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

If the op was warm and ensembles colder he would be all over the GEFS. He's heavy, heavy invested in this one.

He may as well go to bed now before the 12z euro comes out.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If the op was warm and ensembles colder he would be all over the GEFS. He's heavy, heavy invested in this one.

Negative…. I’m cooked here pretty much regardless, unless a Canadian like solution happened.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not saying that the GFS or GEFS is right, But the euro hasn't been steadfast either, The only flag that i still see is that the 06z EPS took a good bump north too, But we shall see here at 12z.

Euro has been most consistent...not debatable IMO.