TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Question in general…. Why is there say, more snow down here than northern and western conn? Is it the position of the high, and draining of the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GGEM actually has the back-end snow that Scooter and I were discussing a while ago. Tries to pop a little conveyor as it exits and flips most of the region to snow (that wasn't already previously) for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Question in general…. Why is there say, more snow down here than northern and western conn? Is it the position of the high, and draining of the cold air? It’s because SEMA is the snow mecca and the models know it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 thats a good hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Get gennys ready to roll pike south interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Man… another like 15-20 mile bump south and that’s a pretty snowy look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Question in general…. Why is there say, more snow down here than northern and western conn? Is it the position of the high, and draining of the cold air? Yeah it is typical in these events where the WAA aloft is stronger off to the west as opposed to a coastal that might be hugging the coast where the WAA is strongest in southeast areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I believe the cold air drain is coming from the NNE, hence WCT w/ less frozen. Just my weenie analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Question in general…. Why is there say, more snow down here than northern and western conn? Is it the position of the high, and draining of the cold air? Well the clown maps may be off and noisy a bit, but it could be that temps just aloft are a bit cooler when the precip burst comes in. For you and I, we'll need to keep an eye on surface temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Man… another like 15-20 mile bump south and that’s a pretty snowy look here Still have the warm tongue above H85 to deal with. GFS has the max profile temps around H8-75. That can change, but you know how these things usually go...warmer tongues and cooler low levels. Keep the warm punch lower to near H85 and get a good thump of upglide before the tongue goes above freezing and you can get a good front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Ukie is coming in a lot colder too, but that model had parrots flying into ORH last night, so it's no surprise it's backing off after what we've seen already at 12z. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is coming in a lot colder too, but that model had parrots flying into ORH last night, so it's no surprise it's backing off after what we've seen already at 12z. Second best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Second best model. I can't take the swings on that model. It's infuriating. But I guess it nails the H5 pattern over the Galapagos Islands so we should treat it with respect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GFS keeps surface temps below 32 duration. So if that happened . Icy look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I can't take the swings on that model. It's infuriating. But I guess it nails the H5 pattern over the Galapagos Islands so we should treat it with respect. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: GFS keeps surface temps below 32 duration. So if that happened . Icy look Christmas morning in trapper hats and parkas. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Christmas morning in trapper hats and parkas. Yes please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Christmas morning in trapper hats and parkas. Enjoy. We probably need to triple the QPF for him to get his dream of a powerless Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We probably need to triple the QPF for him to get his dream of a powerless Xmas. Good .75-1.0 liquid being pumped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good .75-1.0 liquid being pumped out Yeah you need to triple that....you're prob only accreting about 2 tenths of that when you consider both runoff and you lose some to sleet/snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 That is some hefty WAA. That would lead to some serious rates. That degree of WAA reminds me of November 2018 (I think that was November). And that event was pretty wild...especially down across SE PA/NJ/Long Island/S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you need to triple that....you're prob only accreting about 2 tenths of that when you consider both runoff and you lose some to sleet/snow on the front end. How many times inches Qpf did Dec 1973 icestorm have? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That is some hefty WAA. That would lead to some serious rates. That degree of WAA reminds me of November 2018 (I think that was November). And that event was pretty wild...especially down across SE PA/NJ/Long Island/S CT Pretty classic running into a brick wall there...you nearly have a closed 850 high sitting there just N of the US/Quebec border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How many times inches Qpf did Dec 1973 icestorm have? That one had to be at least 1.5-2 inches. Some folks prob got 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty classic running into a brick wall there...you nearly have a closed 850 high sitting there just N of the US/Quebec border. Indeed...this is actually becoming quite exciting. I love these sneaky setups too...these can often overperform too. There are actually some signals too that there could be two heavy bands of snow (which would then bring into question some areas of subsidence) but one heavy band of snow just north of the low track and another in the vicinity of the strongest WAA (these two don't seemed to be overlapped). I am hoping the degree of ulvl divergence given that streak will promote large enough lift to blossom a precipitation shield but sometimes these setups become more band oriented. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Christmas morning in trapper hats and parkas. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 12z GEFS took a bump north from 06z, Looks pretty toasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How many times inches Qpf did Dec 1973 icestorm have? You and your ice storms LOL. I'd much rather have sleet. The last thing I'd want is an ice storm. I would never want to have the damage and destruction and I stream can cause. Let alone losing power. Let's hope for sleet and snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GFS was definitely high end advisory/low end warning snow up this way. Wasn't really paying attention til now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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