SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. Yeah I wish. Somehow I don't see anything like that play out. At this point it's a struggle to even get a couple BN days strung together. 55-61-57 next 3 days in north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: ?? I didn't say that. The evolution on the GFS just is rather bizzare. It's tapping into that storm way offshore. I even commented on something near Christmas when Will and I posted yesterday. I think something could happen, but I wouldn't lock anything yet. It kind of looks like what the Canadian ( I believe Canadian IIRC) was showing yesterday. Block holds energy offshore, as energy dives in... it is strange looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It tilted too, so the def zone was almost N-S. Really bizarre event. The only thing that saved ern areas, was the strong low level forcing. Not necessarily a CF...but it was really convergent at 925-850. Dry as a bone above 850 but unstable. So that forcing was able to get some upward motion going in the unstable layer and create a band of heavy precip. Not a common setup. On the other hand, almost everyone even inland gusted to 50kts. Yea, I got stuck in between the low level and mid level forcing. The wind was awesome....rare for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 15.5", It was a good 3 week stretch from 12/27 to 01/21, The book ends were meh, Finished slightly below avg. I think this season will have a stronger ending.....that was westerly QBO and stronger la nina. Obviously the middle portion won't be as prolific down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I wish. Somehow I don't see anything like that play out. At this point it's a struggle to even get a couple BN days strung together. 55-61-57 next 3 days in north Jersey. You do realize the pattern hasn't changed yet right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I got stuck in between the low level and mid level forcing. The wind was awesome....rare for my area. I think you still got a foot though? I know places west of you chewed on Saharan dust snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 NAM looks a bit cooler for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think you still got a foot though? I know places west of you chewed on Saharan dust snow. Yes....Tip out in Acton had like 8" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. I just got a boner in my car I had over 30 inches in January 2011 66 inches altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this season will have a stronger ending.....that was westerly QBO and stronger la nina. Obviously the middle portion won't be as prolific down here. It was a quick ending that winter, After 02/08 that winter, We were done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I wish. Somehow I don't see anything like that play out. At this point it's a struggle to even get a couple BN days strung together. 55-61-57 next 3 days in north Jersey. This week was always supposed to be a torch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I just got a boner in my car I had over 30 inches in January 2011 66 inches altogether I wouldn't expect 66" on the season, but this looks like a nice period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't expect 66" on the season, but this looks like a nice period. I'm expecting 100 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This week was always supposed to be a torch. Yea, that has zero relevance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Going to a wedding in CT this weekend. Would be nice to see some wintry precipitation Saturday night. Let’s keep trending colder haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 RGEM is also colder than 06z....so we got NAM and RGEM ticking colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 And to the .. tick tick ya don’t stop .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: And to the .. tick tick at pike ya stop .. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 There's a pretty good cold drain that may develop during the storm in the low levels. Could be the type of thing where it starts off as rain (or wet snow in northern SNE/CNE)...and then goes to a drier snow further north and pellets/ZR further south where there is still a warm layer aloft, but the cold drain in the low levels is undercutting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 NAM is fairly cold at the surface, but torched near 850. That's a nice 33F Ray type rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is fairly cold at the surface, but torched near 850. That's a nice 33F Ray type rain here. NAM is like -4C at 925mb along the pike....lol. That would be a scalp-peeling pelletfest here I think. Hoping for a tick colder aloft so it's more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM is like -4C at 925mb along the pike....lol. That would be a scalp-peeling pelletfest here I think. Hoping for a tick colder aloft so it's more snow. Winds go N-NNE inland so the cold drain will happen there I think. I'd like for this to get a little boost as it exits. Would help to end as a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Winds go N-NNE inland so the cold drain will happen there I think. I'd like for this to get a little boost as it exits. Would help to end as a little snow. Yeah the Euro suite/ensembles have been trying to pop this a bit before it exits and flip a lot of peeps to snow for a few hours. It looks like the NAM and RGEM may try to go that route if we had another panel or two....esp RGEM more than the NAM...RGEM was already collapsing the 925 low at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the Euro suite/ensembles have been trying to pop this a bit before it exits and flip a lot of peeps to snow for a few hours. It looks like the NAM and RGEM may try to go that route if we had another panel or two....esp RGEM more than the NAM...RGEM was already collapsing the 925 low at the end. I think I am golden for white xmas up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is fairly cold at the surface, but torched near 850. That's a nice 33F Ray type rain here. Icy cold rain for Raymie.. Icy for Kev? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icy cold rain for Raymie.. Icy for Kev? Nah he is just inland enough. Could be icy for you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You do realize the pattern hasn't changed yet right? It's gonna take a while before you see its effects. Most of New England is in a prime spot for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's gonna take a while before you see its effects. Most of New England is in a prime spot for it. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah he is just inland enough. Could be icy for you though. Let’s do it . Tear down some widow makers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I am golden for white xmas up here. Starting to look pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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