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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Longer range is still a little concerning. Despite the AK trough, we sort of luck out a bit between weenie ridging near the Pole and then perhaps some near Greenland as it migrates to Scandinavia. However at the end of the EPS, it's been hinting that despite some dateline ridging trying to develop, we may see the PNA drop and a little SE ridging take hold near mid month. Of course it has been volatile on the long range..but just stating what it shows.

 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess the good news is that anything hostile appears  it may not last too long if that dateline ridging happens.

It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track.

Yeah I've been thinking about that. It hasn't gotten worse as we get closer. At least so far. 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Longer range is still a little concerning. Despite the AK trough, we sort of luck out a bit between weenie ridging near the Pole and then perhaps some near Greenland as it migrates to Scandinavia. However at the end of the EPS, it's been hinting that despite some dateline ridging trying to develop, we may see the PNA drop and a little SE ridging take hold near mid month. Of course it has been volatile on the long range..but just stating what it shows.

I guess we can take comfort in that the long range accuracy has sucked wrt consistency.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He had like an inch after 7a. I had almost 3" and although I don't think it was quite 1" by 7a or whatever the definition is, I'm counting it lol.

Yeah you should count 2017...just like I won't count last year. I think "Technically" I had a sloppy inch or two still hanging on at 7am last Christmas amidst 60F downpours but it was gone a couple hours later. I'm not even counting that...lol

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I almost wouldn't be 'as' concerned at the present notion of the EPS and GEFs means being so flat with some of these ( otherwise ) interesting oper. runs.

Namley... D8-ish.

Lower resolution model types, such that individual ensemble members are ... are trying to operated in a progressive open wave pattern.  The flow is fast, ...it doesn't lend to helping forecast accuracy of these individual ensemble members, that don't employ the 'souped up' physics of the operational runs. 

It "might" offer a bun explanation for why the there is an interesting coherent agreed upon signal from the Euro and GFS for D8, for a flat fast mover, yet vague in the clusters.  If the flow were slower and more meridian in structure, that might lend to the means picking it up better at this range. 

 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you should count 2017...just like I won't count last year. I think "Technically" I had a sloppy inch or two still hanging on at 7am last Christmas amidst 60F downpours but it was gone a couple hours later. I'm not even counting that...lol

Unfortunately science does .. .heh.

It was a white xmas whether we're spurned or not -  12:01 AM probably had 5" inches still or something... lol.  Oy

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