ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Longer range is still a little concerning. Despite the AK trough, we sort of luck out a bit between weenie ridging near the Pole and then perhaps some near Greenland as it migrates to Scandinavia. However at the end of the EPS, it's been hinting that despite some dateline ridging trying to develop, we may see the PNA drop and a little SE ridging take hold near mid month. Of course it has been volatile on the long range..but just stating what it shows. 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess the good news is that anything hostile appears it may not last too long if that dateline ridging happens. It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track. Yeah I've been thinking about that. It hasn't gotten worse as we get closer. At least so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Would be good if i can put the JD to work on actual snow, Then none of the digital snow we have accumulated on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Would be good if i can put the JD to work on actual snow, Then none of the digital snow we have accumulated on the models. You can always put the JD to work, snow or no snow. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Longer range is still a little concerning. Despite the AK trough, we sort of luck out a bit between weenie ridging near the Pole and then perhaps some near Greenland as it migrates to Scandinavia. However at the end of the EPS, it's been hinting that despite some dateline ridging trying to develop, we may see the PNA drop and a little SE ridging take hold near mid month. Of course it has been volatile on the long range..but just stating what it shows. I guess we can take comfort in that the long range accuracy has sucked wrt consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh except for 3 weeks. How about 08-09 and everyone happy? I was ok the prior year but admittedly better a year later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Statistically speaking…. We are way overdue for a white Christmas in these parts. Last one was 2010 I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Each morning and every set of model runs provides new neurotic forum tantrums to wake up to. I see today is the "high", surely 12z crashes that 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Each morning and every set of model runs provides new neurotic forum tantrums to wake up to. I see today is the "high", surely 12z crashes that Whatever happened to that gentle soul from Bedford NH who used to post about snow? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever happened to that gentle soul from Bedford NH who used to post about snow? We all post about snow. I'm not obsessed with having it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Gfs offering up a region wide advisory event Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: I was ok the prior year but admittedly better a year later. IIRC, December 2007 was thumping out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever happened to that gentle soul from Bedford NH who used to post about snow? Cracked and swore off enjoying winter ever again after saying congrats AEMATT crew one too many times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 12z gfs still providing a quick wave and weenie shot of snow Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 GFS looks icy in NNE nest week. Torch Tiger here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Probably too much ridging out ahead of shortwave this run, but signal for a storm is there again…might clobber interior here, we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: IIRC, December 2007 was thumping out here. Here too. One of the better Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 That Saturday night gfs event should generate some muthufukkas. We’ll get them in a little over an hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks icy in NNE nest week. Torch Tiger here. Need that front on the 4th/5th to trend even stronger I guess. It was a little weaker this run so cold air push wasn’t as good as last run prior to main wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Statistically speaking…. We are way overdue for a white Christmas in these parts. Last one was 2010 I believe. Didn’t you get one in 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: That Saturday night gfs event should generate some muthufukkas. We’ll get them in a little over an hour. White Sat to washed away Monday ? Hopefully the ensembles flatter idea is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Didn’t you get one in 2017? Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Didn’t you get one in 2017? He had like an inch after 7a. I had almost 3" and although I don't think it was quite 1" by 7a or whatever the definition is, I'm counting it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Need that front on the 4th/5th to trend even stronger I guess. It was a little weaker this run so cold air push wasn’t as good as last run prior to main wave Gefs looks better Cmc also looks better but not fully out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He had like an inch after 7a. I had almost 3" and although I don't think it was quite 1" by 7a or whatever the definition is, I'm counting it lol. Yeah you should count 2017...just like I won't count last year. I think "Technically" I had a sloppy inch or two still hanging on at 7am last Christmas amidst 60F downpours but it was gone a couple hours later. I'm not even counting that...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: IIRC, December 2007 was thumping out here. And it all melted with the Christmas Eve grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 I almost wouldn't be 'as' concerned at the present notion of the EPS and GEFs means being so flat with some of these ( otherwise ) interesting oper. runs. Namley... D8-ish. Lower resolution model types, such that individual ensemble members are ... are trying to operated in a progressive open wave pattern. The flow is fast, ...it doesn't lend to helping forecast accuracy of these individual ensemble members, that don't employ the 'souped up' physics of the operational runs. It "might" offer a bun explanation for why the there is an interesting coherent agreed upon signal from the Euro and GFS for D8, for a flat fast mover, yet vague in the clusters. If the flow were slower and more meridian in structure, that might lend to the means picking it up better at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you should count 2017...just like I won't count last year. I think "Technically" I had a sloppy inch or two still hanging on at 7am last Christmas amidst 60F downpours but it was gone a couple hours later. I'm not even counting that...lol Unfortunately science does .. .heh. It was a white xmas whether we're spurned or not - 12:01 AM probably had 5" inches still or something... lol. Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Let's go for a 588 height! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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