December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin will absolutely lose it if Ray gets a white Christmas and he doesn’t. 2010 MLK style meltdown.  

18z ICON would do it FWIW (not much).

Actually is Ray in northern Middlesex or Essex county?

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like euro was still pretty flat at 18z at the end of the run at 90h....not at the computer though to do a Dprog/dt comparison to 12z...how did it look? 

A bit north and warmer.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like euro was still pretty flat at 18z at the end of the run at 90h....not at the computer though to do a Dprog/dt comparison to 12z...how did it look? 

I’m actually putting kids to bed, but here are two snap shots I got lol. I think 18z maybe a little more amped?

 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like euro was still pretty flat at 18z at the end of the run at 90h....not at the computer though to do a Dprog/dt comparison to 12z...how did it look? 

Colder at 850 by about 30 miles south. Edit pretty much the same 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Colder at 850 by about 30 miles south. 

In some areas yes, Not everywhere, and 2m temps warmer as well esp where it matters north of us. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Colder at 850 by about 30 miles south. 

Overall 18z warmer. 

[CoastalWx]

Easiest thing to do Is compare 500 heights at hr 90 vs hr 96 from 12z. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Overall 18z warmer. 

Pretty much a wash at 850. Splitting pubes

[CoastalWx]

The 850 temp comparisons can be noisy and a result of precipitation helping to evapo cool. 500 heights will show you if it’s amping or not. I can’t compare at the moment.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Overall 18z warmer. 

Looks exactly the same . EPS still 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The 850 temp comparisons can be noisy and a result of precipitation helping to evapo cool. 500 heights with vorticity will show you if it’s amping or not. I can’t compare at the moment.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty much a wash at 850. Splitting pubes

When you toggle on WB you see it clearly. But it’s a very small jump temp wise, the higher jump was at surface pressure and precip. But it’s 18z so who cares, I find 18z the least accurate. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Easiest thing to do Is compare 500 heights at hr 90 vs hr 96 from 12z. 

 

[CoastalWx]

EPS is a little more north and stronger compared to 12z. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

18z op stronger. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is a little more north and stronger compared to 12z. 

Aren't 5h heights lower here meaning critical thickness should be lower?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Aren't 5h heights lower here meaning critical thickness should be lower?

The heights here look slightly higher compared to 12z and check out near MN where the s/w is. That’s a little deeper too. So to me, that’s probably a north move from 12z. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The heights here look slightly higher compared to 12z and check out near MN where the s/w is. That’s a little deeper too. So to me, that’s probably a north move from 12z. 

Definitely higher heights and north. 

[SouthCoastMA]

def looks slightly more amped. I agree

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The heights here look slightly higher compared to 12z and check out near MN where the s/w is. That’s a little deeper too. So to me, that’s probably a north move from 12z. 

Ok thanks just looked at my hood 564 crossed my casa but is north of me at 18Z by 5 miles. Still 4 days out so we track

[dryslot]

18z Euro Op was more amped by a couple tics, 18z EPS is as well from 12z

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

18z Euro Op was more amped by a couple tics, 18z EPS is as well from 12z

Took some 5 hour energy. Precip field is pretty meh still

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Backend colder on EPS. Snowier run.

Although I wonder if this is an “18z run blip”

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Took some 5 hour energy. Precip field is pretty meh still

You can see the difference in the height fields over the great lakes from 12z to 18z.

 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I like it. Let Kevin worry, lose sleep etc. It's worth it. 

Hard to argue that point of view; lol Kev will manage to stress no matter which way this trends.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Backend colder on EPS. Snowier run.

Although I wonder if this is an “18z run blip”

 

Kevin likes the back enders

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Fair enough, I think there’s still some room, just unlikely IMO, crazier things have happened.

I hear ya, and it may well trend into a goner.  I certainly would not lay any money down on it; likely gets answered with the 0z run...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Backend colder on EPS. Snowier run.

Although I wonder if this is an “18z run blip”

 

Bout a 50/50 shot at an inch here… can we hold an inch for 6 days for a white Christmas?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bout a 50/50 shot at an inch here… can we hold an inch for 6 days for a white Christmas?

An inch wouldn’t last 3 or 4 days even in frigid weather. Not enough water content usually to stave off sublimation. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

An inch wouldn’t last 3 or 4 days even in frigid weather. Not enough water content usually to stave off sublimation. 

Yeah lol… I was joking…. Going to need that midweek blizzard to pan out too