CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it would be two solid wins in a row on events. We’ll see I guess. Probably a compromise with an edge to GFS? Either way, Tblizz lighting his Christmas tree on fire when it's bare ground on 12/25. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Bruce on wfsb showed both scenarios. Gfs being warmer and the Euro colder. Didn't lean towards 1 or the other yet. I also say what Ryan had to say on Wvit. He is pretty solid on his forecasts I would acknowledge both scenarios, but my guess is 00z Euro comes in a tick warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, Angus said: grew up on the south shore and remember walking up to the local pond on xmas day to try on the skates Santa had brought the night below. Right around zero degrees...a couple of circles around the pond and I was done and headed home. That was some real cold. I still have the skates. My Christmas 1980 was a bit less “magical”. It involved my dad and I trying to unclog a septic tank pipe in the below zero weather. Fun times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would acknowledge both scenarios, but my guess is 00z Euro comes in a tick warmer. Why not use ensembles when op runs are wildly swinging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My Christmas 1980 was a bit less “magical”. It involved my dad and I trying to unclog a septic tank pipe in the below zero weather. Fun times flush rock salt down....unless it was clogged due to other reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why not use ensembles when op runs are wildly swinging? They aren't swinging. One set is warmer, one is colder....and has been staying consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They aren't swinging. One set is warmer, one is colder....and has been staying consistent. One things consistent we get 0.0” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They aren't swinging. One set is warmer, one is colder....and has been staying consistent. Ok. We’ll see if it’s a rainer . I do not think it is except for a coast. Probably a rain to snow or icy mix to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 18z gfs Yeah 18z gfs looks yucky lol. Here comes the Grinch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why not use ensembles when op runs are wildly swinging? Ensembles are warmer than euro OP. Colder than GFS OP though. My guess is still mostly a CNE event at this point but maybe we’ll get lucky and grab an inch or two at the end down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles are warmer than euro OP. Colder than GFS OP though. My guess is still mostly a CNE event at this point but maybe we’ll get lucky and grab an inch or two at the end down here. That’s how I’ve been envisioning it going for the last few days. Likely rain to snow. Something similar perhaps to Dec 8th last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Personally ... I side with the Euro for a few reasons, both meteorological and operational/experience included... That said, I'd call some ZR/PL down to the Pike or even NW CT as a relative win, because as I went on with it earlier...the Euro most likely has a better handle on the DP layout post the shallow boundary, and it's synoptic PP being subtle but crucially greater than the GFS north, is more likely real at this range and adds to that... Operationally, we are < than 96 hours and I don't believe the GFS scores typically better than the Euro in this range. but there are other nuanced reasons with the tooling, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s how I’ve been envisioning it going for the last few days. Likely rain to snow. Something similar perhaps to Dec 8th last year Do you mean 12/5? That was that nuking coastal with very little cold air but it managed to flip to snow....ORH had like 10” of paste. We had about 4” of total mashed potatoes here that froze into a glacier the next day. This wont be a nuking coastal like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Do you mean 12/5? That was that nuking coastal with very little cold air but it managed to flip to snow....ORH had like 10” of paste. We had about 4” of total mashed potatoes here that froze into a glacier the next day. This wont be a nuking coastal like that. Yeah that one. Think we had 5-6” here. Something like that but lower amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that one. Think we had 5-6” here. Something like that but lower amounts You will be lucky to grab a coating. This one is likely a goner for all of CT. Time to move to late next week for a favorable pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You will be lucky to grab a coating. This one is likely a goner for all of CT. Time to move to late next week for a favorable pattern. Strongly disagree and so does your chief Ryan . But you certainly could be correct in mild rainer for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Strongly disagree and so does your chief Ryan . But you certainly could be correct in mild rainer for SNE Ok loser has to send a 6 pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You will be lucky to grab a coating. This one is likely a goner for all of CT. Time to move to late next week for a favorable pattern. I think that is a bit premature for the northern third of CT; I would still keep the forecast close to the vest and leave some wiggle room in my forecast for northern CT; no reason to hype for sure, but certainly room for measurable across the northern third of CT. Goner implies there is no room for this to trend into at least a low-grade event for northern CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: I think that is a bit premature for the northern third of CT; I would still keep the forecast close to the vest and leave some wiggle room in my forecast for northern CT; no reason to hype for sure, but certainly room for measurable across the northern third of CT. Goner implies there is no room for this to trend into at least a low-grade event for northern CT. I like it. Let Kevin worry, lose sleep etc. It's worth it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: I think that is a bit premature for the northern third of CT; I would still keep the forecast close to the vest and leave some wiggle room in my forecast for northern CT; no reason to hype for sure, but certainly room for measurable across the northern third of CT. Goner implies there is no room for this to trend into at least a low-grade event for northern CT. Fair enough, I think there’s still some room, just unlikely IMO, crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like it. Let Kevin worry, lose sleep etc. It's worth it. That’s the route I’m going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ok loser has to send a 6 pack. Ok ! You drink Mic Ultras? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like it. Let Kevin worry, lose sleep etc. It's worth it. We beer , we snow, we Track, we smile 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We beer , we snow, we Track, we smile You beer, you bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You beer, you bare. Kevin will absolutely lose it if Ray gets a white Christmas and he doesn’t. 2010 MLK style meltdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be your bear after you beer, I’ll be bare. Ummm. No thank you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin will absolutely lose it if Ray gets a white Christmas and he doesn’t. 2010 MLK style meltdown. That’s the stuff that keeps me entertained. Likewise a good Ray meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s the stuff that keeps me entertained. Likewise a good Ray meltdown. Looks like euro was still pretty flat at 18z at the end of the run at 90h....not at the computer though to do a Dprog/dt comparison to 12z...how did it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin will absolutely lose it if Ray gets a white Christmas and he doesn’t. 2010 MLK style meltdown. Not with this on trending colder each cycle. We feeling beery and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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