December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a KU setup. Lol...yes it’s clown range but that’s how the -NAO can help you out. 

That must be all N stream, then....I saw a better pattern, but didn't see much of a s stream and no closed low

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s actually a really interesting setup for 12/24-25  brewing on the euro. 

I was just thinking let me look at 500mb anomalies. Tasty. 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Worst i have ever experienced.

Great pics, especially the one of Augusta.  Somehow a 40' box trailer passed under that bridge.  My son and I were in downtown Gardiner and saw what looked like a metal-roofed camp float by, as the trapped air kept the front of the trailer sticking 10' above the water.  Peak flow at the North Sidney guge was 232k cfs, the only 200+ flow in Maine records.  The Kennebec hasn't topped 102k since; in fact, 113k in 1984 is their #2 event, though their comparatively short record (1979) doesn't reach back to 1936 and 1953.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking let me look at 500mb anomalies. Tasty. 

You are projecting later..okay.

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not sure I’d want to be on that bridge.

It was closed until the water was low enough for engineers to deem it safe.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not sure I’d want to be on that bridge.

And as a comparison, No i was not going across there as well.

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s actually a really interesting setup for 12/24-25  brewing on the euro. 

For once we aren't tracking a cutter and 60s high dews for Christmas.  I do feel no matter what by this time next week (the 24th or later) we are tracking in earnest if NAO sets up and we get some help out west.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS mean has a Miller B just offshore that timeframe, and GEPS have it offshore a day earlier.

[Lava Rock]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Great pics, especially the one of Augusta.  Somehow a 40' box trailer passed under that bridge.  My son and I were in downtown Gardiner and saw what looked like a metal-roofed camp float by, as the trapped air kept the front of the trailer sticking 10' above the water.  Peak flow at the North Sidney guge was 232k cfs, the only 200+ flow in Maine records.  The Kennebec hasn't topped 102k since; in fact, 113k in 1984 is their #2 event, though their comparatively short record (1979) doesn't reach back to 1936 and 1953.

Is that the Norridgewock bridge in the 2nd pic?

[CoastalWx]

EPS also looks good for Ray. That cooled off.

[Lava Rock]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

For once we aren't tracking a cutter and 60s high dews for Christmas.  I do feel no matter what by this time next week (the 24th or later) we are tracking in earnest if NAO sets up and we get some help out west.  

Delayed till NYE? JK. fingers crossed we all get some white stuff without the wet.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are projecting later..okay.

You better watch out

You better not cry

You better not pout

I'm tellin' you why..

KU clause is coming...to town. 

[CoastalWx]

He sees Ray when he's seething

He knows it's not December '08

He knows if the pattern is bad or good

So be good for goodness sake. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Great pics, especially the one of Augusta.  Somehow a 40' box trailer passed under that bridge.  My son and I were in downtown Gardiner and saw what looked like a metal-roofed camp float by, as the trapped air kept the front of the trailer sticking 10' above the water.  Peak flow at the North Sidney guge was 232k cfs, the only 200+ flow in Maine records.  The Kennebec hasn't topped 102k since; in fact, 113k in 1984 is their #2 event, though their comparatively short record (1979) doesn't reach back to 1936 and 1953.

I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge

[tamarack]

13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Is that the Norridgewock bridge in the 2nd pic?

Route 4 bridge over the Sandy River in Fairbanks (Farmington).  AFAIK, the bridge in Norridgewock had little/no damage - the river level there is affected by Weston Dam in Skowhegan, which obviously was wide open at the time, though not enough to prevent some flooding of the twin bridges there.

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking let me look at 500mb anomalies. Tasty. 

That -NAO is really going to town. EPS showing the -NAO too migrating/retrograding into Greenland and even back into Davis Strait a bit. 

I’ve always really liked the -PNA/-NAO pattern for New England historically. Esp in Dec/Jan...it has had a high correlation with good snows here. 

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge…I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge…

It was closed for a while, obviously after that pic was taken.  And I had the wrong city in an earlier post that mentioned the box trailer - the pic is in L-A, dryslotville.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS also looks good for Ray. That cooled off.

Well, that is comforting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That -NAO is really going to town. EPS showing the -NAO too migrating/retrograding into Greenland and even back into Davis Strait a bit. 

I’ve always really liked the -PNA/-NAO pattern for New England historically. Esp in Dec/Jan...it has had a high correlation with good snows here. 

Yea, I love the pattern....don't get me wrong, I was just looking for a bomb on the map like some of those GEM and GFS runs. I see what you meant at the end, though.....that would get forced out under us.

[Typhoon Tip]

Back on pg 91 a wrote this massive…

 

… And basically it seems like nothings changed. The models are still trying to sort out which system …no clue which or what is going to be dominant or significant enough, through that period of time roughly the 18th through the end of the month – which they get a pass because we’re still talking about extended leads. Just sayn. 

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That -NAO is really going to town. EPS showing the -NAO too migrating/retrograding into Greenland and even back into Davis Strait a bit. 

I’ve always really liked the -PNA/-NAO pattern for New England historically. Esp in Dec/Jan...it has had a high correlation with good snows here. 

Does -PNA correlate to a wetter pattern and thus, higher volume of chances (wet and white)? The -NAO speaks for itself but was just wondering

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I love the pattern....don't get me wrong, I was just looking for a bomb on the map like some of those GEM and GFS runs. I see what you meant at the end, though.....that would get forced out under us.

Yeah we need another couple frames for it to materialize but that looks like a slow moving snow dump for New England brewing. Clown range caveats obviously. Even a little northern stream moderate system would be welcomed by most I’m sure. 

[CoastalWx]

Man that's getting quite tasty on the EPS too after Christmas....hell even Christmas has a hint of something...and frankly other guidance hints too.

[SJonesWX]

45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not sure I’d want to be on that bridge.

well duh, the collapsed bridge wouldn't be a very safe place to be. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we need another couple frames for it to materialize but that looks like a slow moving snow dump for New England brewing. Clown range caveats obviously. Even a little northern stream moderate system would be welcomed by most I’m sure. 

I still doubt a KU caliber system...at least that early, but a good dump is likely in the offing

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Does -PNA correlate to a wetter pattern and thus, higher volume of chances (wet and white). The -NAO speaks for itself but was just wondering

Yeah you basically get kind of a parade of shortwaves firehosing off the PAC in a -PNA and then the -NAO helps force them underneath us. 

-PNA/-NAO was the dominating pattern for much of 2010-2011 actually. Ditto 1970-1971 and even for chunks of 2008-2009. You ideally get a couple random +PNA interludes to help amplify a couple systems which did happen even in those winters mentioned....but the base state being -PNA/-NAO keeps the chances rolling in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you basically get kind of a parade of shortwaves firehosing off the PAC in a -PNA and then the -NAO helps force them underneath us. 

-PNA/-NAO was the dominating pattern for much of 2010-2011 actually. Ditto 1970-1971 and even for chunks of 2008-2009. You ideally get a couple random +PNA interludes to help amplify a couple systems which did happen even in those winters mentioned....but the base state being -PNA/-NAO keeps the chances rolling in. 

I remember I brought that analog up last week and you pointed out that we'd need the NAO to show up....well....hahaha.

All three of those seasons you listed were pretty big first half analogs for me.

[Hoth]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You better watch out

You better not cry

You better not pout

I'm tellin' you why..

KU clause is coming...to town. 

I would kill for a KU on Christmas. I can't remember the last time we had a real snow storm that day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

RNA reduces the risk of funny stuff that can screw the pooch, like LBSW or OTS..basically a miller B fest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I would kill for a KU on Christmas. I can't remember the last time we had a real snow storm that day.

That magnitude...2002, though it hugged and began later xmas day. Snowstorm period? 2017.