40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Jumped a good 15 or so miles north from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 It’s early obviously, but we’ve yet to catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s early obviously, but we’ve yet to catch a break There is zero chance Saturday so as I’ve said, look past it. That never looked good and any chance was a Flutie Hail Mary. Maybe a coating to end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just look past Christmas. Save yourself some Meds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: There is zero chance Saturday so as I’ve said, look past it. That never looked good and any chance was a Flutie Hail Mary. Maybe a coating to end? Euro didn’t look bad…. But it’s going to be wrong after nailing the weak piece of shit last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: There is zero chance Saturday so as I’ve said, look past it. That never looked good and any chance was a Flutie Hail Mary. Maybe a coating to end? I could get like an inch or so in my area, which would be great this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro didn’t look bad…. But it’s going to be wrong after nailing the weak piece of shit last week When the ensemble is warmer, toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jumped a good 15 or so miles north from 00z. I’m assuming you meant 150? Meanwhile expectations are skewed. Remember the pattern change is just beginning. Everyone looks at AK seeing the pig gone and assumes it’s instant snow. RNA takes a toll until NAO is established. Presuming that prog (getting the nao in here) is correct, I envision us partying like the big winter days once that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’m assuming you meant 150? Meanwhile expectations are skewed. Remember the pattern change is just beginning. Everyone looks at AK seeing the pig gone and assumes it’s instant snow. RNA takes a toll until NAO is established. Presuming that prog (getting the nao in here) is correct, I envision us partying like the big winter days once that happens. 15-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just look past Christmas. Save yourself some Meds. Yep. We may score something before Christmas. The potential is there for sure but the pattern does continue to improve once past Christmas. Dec 18-19 was always a long shot for us in SNE. Maybe the euro will score a coup, but my money is against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. We may score something before Christmas. The potential is there for sure but the pattern does continue to improve once past Christmas. Dec 18-19 was always a long shot for us in SNE. Maybe the euro will score a coup, but my money is against it. And to clarify I was more referring to him and I, but yeah...anything before is gravy. Next week has more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. We may score something before Christmas. The potential is there for sure but the pattern does continue to improve once past Christmas. Dec 18-19 was always a long shot for us in SNE. Maybe the euro will score a coup, but my money is against it. I agree. Unfortunately, while it nailed that last event going to shit, its probably wrong here bc there is no ensemble support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 I'd take a compromise between the GEM and EURO.....that would work for me, but eh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m assuming you meant 150? Meanwhile expectations are skewed. Remember the pattern change is just beginning. Everyone looks at AK seeing the pig gone and assumes it’s instant snow. RNA takes a toll until NAO is established. Presuming that prog (getting the nao in here) is correct, I envision us partying like the big winter days once that happens. I have some motherfukkers up here for sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 I'd look towards an outside shot of something coming out of 21/22 - if you don't want to wait until after Christmas. Though looks like those odds are decreasing by the run, with the southern/northern streams moving further apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The GFS has a 'grinch-lite' frontal passage Christmas Eve, but not really much to melt away at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 GEM poised to disappoint for the follow up system, too...that was predictable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 I know what this is... The GFS still possess an ever so much but crucial inaccuracy in handling the BL thermodynamics of saturation - a product heredity that kicked in a handful of "upgrades" ago... I suspect that is why it is not seeing/assessing the BL resistance of interior SNE/SE NY and the eastern Capital District of NYS as having upper 20s DP in near or at saturation, and instead, drills the temp/dp combo to something like 40/35 while the light to moderate ordeal plays out through the weekend. I would not trust the GFS in this situation. Both it, and the Euro never move the antecedent front back N into CT-RI, and once that sets up ... and assuming the Euro handles the BL more precisely...sorry - The GGEM ...not sure how to account for that - it could be arriving at it's layouts through different means/local biases ( or not..) but, it does, just cursory, looks like it doesn't lay out as much antecedent +PP into central/NNE... prior to arrival, so it whether or not it is handling the BL resistance or not, it never has a chance to test that because it's about 4 ... 6 mb lower in ambient PP compared to Euro. That's where I am leaning as of this hour - less weight on the GFS's hydgroscopic thermodynamics, in lieu of more accuracy handling that in the Euro ...and possible BL resistance feedbacks. Should the Euro arrive with less lead +PP, then I lean away.. That would be situation where the earlier runs of the GFS were right for the wrong reasons though - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Wow, is that comical how different the GEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Ukie tickled north too for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s early obviously, but we’ve yet to catch a break Welcome to the 80s young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM poised to disappoint for the follow up system, too...that was predictable. Gefs is further north for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 People are going to be grumpy if this weekend blows and next week finds a way to not pan out. I don’t care what original expectations were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Welcome to the 80s young man. Just flying to the danger zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are going to be grumpy if this weekend blows and next week finds a way to not pan out. I don’t care what original expectations were Some have been trying to tell them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some have been trying to tell them. I understand… I’m just saying what’s going to happen lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I'm grumpy FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I understand… I’m just saying what’s going to happen lol. I look at it like this. Lay the foundation down. NNE barely has had any synoptic snows outside of a few inches. They'll get that Saturday. Maybe interior again gets something next week. It will slowly progress south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I understand… I’m just saying what’s going to happen lol. First of all, you’re talking about a potential that’s 8 days away lol….no model or anybody knows what type of evolution this first system will create out in La la land for next Wednesday’s potential. It’s a futile endeavor to try and worry about what might happen middle of next week, on Tuesday of this week. Pump the brakes Deb! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I understand… I’m just saying what’s going to happen lol. You're emotionally invested. Need to send you through the 12-step recovery program. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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