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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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Euro is def interesting for 12/18-19, but I'm not buying it yet. That's a low end warning event pike-northward on that run. It's just that we don't really get a solid flux of CAA prior to that event which is what makes me skeptical of the snow that far south. If future runs can give us a bit better push behind the FROPA this Friday, then maybe I'll start buying a bit more.

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2 hours ago, crownweather said:


I wish I could thank this post many times over.  What a great post and it's all true!!  Sadly, weather posts on Twitter and Facebook are such that, as you said, there's only a model map with no context.  That gets shared a shit ton of times and thus it becomes a "forecast" that in all likelihood never verifies.  What happens in the end is that the "public" ends up coming away thinking that it's another bust of a forecast and the meteorologist is wrong again - even though you and I and many others NEVER forecasted that to happen.  

Sometimes, I feel like the grumpy old man when I say to myself, It was better when all we had were difax printouts once or twice a day.  You actually had to forecast the weather and not just regurgitate a really pretty model map.  

Again, great post!!  

 

There's just too much shared on social media that shouldn't be shared b/c chaos ensues. It's one thing to maybe have those type of discussions say like on a place like this...you're sharing ideas thoughts, and having a discussion. But on social media...it just takes off and boom. But I can see why people do this on social media...you generate enough likes and a following and it becomes profitable. I'm not sure how it works with Facebook and Twitter but on YouTube once your channel generates enough followers and your videos get an 'x' amount of views...you get paid. I come across some channels on YouTube that go hype crazy and have a ton of followers and views...they must be making a killing. I mean think about it...any single one of us on here could go ahead and do the same thing. I mean why not create a channel throw up some graphics and then talk about the what ifs and cater into a crowd which is going to generate like/views. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro says what storm on the 21st?

All the western energy gets cutoff and sinks southwest into the Pacific, lol....I'd probably rather have that actually if we somehow manage to snow on 12/18-19 and have a pack to protect...it keeps everything northern stream which is better for us and better for avoiding cutters.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

All the western energy gets cutoff and sinks southwest into the Pacific, lol....I'd probably rather have that actually if we somehow manage to snow on 12/18-19 and have a pack to protect...it keeps everything northern stream which is better for us and better for avoiding cutters.

Classic Euro.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see it here....it helps force everything further south...some ensemble members are trying to show this so its something to watch. It would increase the margin for error if we get that look.

 

 

Dec13_12zEuro216.png

That has the look of one of Tippy's NJ model jobs.

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The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

 

 

Dec10-13_EPS_trend.gif

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

 

 

Dec10-13_EPS_trend.gif

Right...I know @Torch Tigerdoesn't like to hear it, but its the truth...regardless of how many weenies you reply with.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

 

 

Dec10-13_EPS_trend.gif

Still correcting

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

 

 

Dec10-13_EPS_trend.gif

Very stout now. Impressive.

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This is an impressive Hemisphere ... every cycle I've seen over the last ...5 or 6 back-to-back, has edged more impressive in the general large scale frame-up ...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2021121312&fh=204&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

And, we see on the 22nd there is a mean negative tilt high power trough lifting along NE Coast...  Probably don't have to look; foregone conclusion there are several individual members toting along a significant event there.

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55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

 

 

Dec10-13_EPS_trend.gif

and that trough in the west is backing to the sw which helps us with cold air yes?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a very Dorchester/Quincy thing to do. 

If there was ever another natural disaster, never take side roads home. All of the shortcuts you think you know, 50 other people know them.  Spent an hour in UMASS boston trying to cut off time from neponset circle down morrissey.  Morrissey

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1 minute ago, amarshall said:

If there was ever another natural disaster, never take side roads home. All of the shortcuts you think you know, 50 other people know them.  Spent an hour in UMASS boston trying to cut off time from neponset circle down morrissey.  Morrissey

I learned that the hard way back in 2003. I took back roads home from Burlington through Cambridge onto the X way in Feb with a surprise snowstorm. That was about 5-6 hrs, coming home from UMass Lowell. Should have stayed on 128.

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