40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 12z GFS is actually a great example to have right after the 06z GFS.....while the 06z GFS shows how things can go right, the 12z GFS shows how things go wrong. We're reliant on timing since we don't have true downstream blocking. That -NAO is still east-based so it's not going to provide much resistance for cutters....not until it retrogrades more into the central part of the domain which it might after Xmas....but prior to that, we are still at the mercy of timing. Reality will be in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 I highly doubt my area gets nothing out of all of that with the cold that will be nearby....maybe a just a couple of inches on the front end, but total rainers is unlikely here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I highly doubt my area gets nothing out of all of that with the cold that will be nearby....maybe a just a couple of inches on the front end, but total rainers is unlikely here. To this point, the GEFS are actually a bit colder and snowier than the 06z suite lol Gotta ignore the OP for now because its so susceptible to the "noise" at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Focus is on the bigger ticket 'plausibility' out there around the 22nd but the foreground event over the weekened ( centered on 144 or so hours ...) is worth considering ... probably lower significance? sure, but I think that's advisory icing in the interior ending with grits and flurries, with low snow/mix tots in southern VT/NH. The air mass ahead is new post fropa. Altho not excessively cold/dry by any stretch, pressures are rising through NNE - that tends to lead to more ageostrophic/925 mb N llv flow in the interior central/southern NE regions - probably feeding in lower DP. Minor situation overall, but one that looks like a smoking gun for under-estimating hygroscopic cooling. SO, with weaker WAA associated with that flat baroclinic bulge rippling by underneath, it "appears" from this range/blend, to be the right ratio wrt to not overwhelming the llv cold.. Probably some modest frontogenic tendencies over top, too. The thing with the 22nd, ... to me, most GEF individual members carry an event from the TV up the or E of the App spine, and transfer some sort of Miller A/ B hybrid. Obviously the 06z was an impressive 20 mb calving in 12 hours absurdity or whatever Kleenex and magazine that was. It was an outlier... Agree with Will.. the general flow scaffold from 100 W to Greenland provides the 'needle thread' ... it is noted that GGEM dropped the system altogether. The Euro actually had that thing 3 days ago as a historic bomb cutting straight across ...which we rightfully 86 that silliness. But, the 00z run ..as far as I can tell, doesn't even have it. It also looks to have fallen out of sync with it's own ensemble mean. All the while, the hemisphere seems poised to click cogs into a -(wpo;epo) couplet up there, with the NAO probably doing it's thing as a transitive/non-linear large scale wave forcing - in other words... it magnitude and placement is wildly uncertain. Bottom line, vastly too early to be specific about the 22nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 The analogy I like to think of is that since the OP is a higher resolution ensemble member, it is very sensitive to all of the "noise" that results from the vast chaos in the atmosphere at extended lead times. Thus while the lower resolution ensemble mean is more impervious to all of that noise and can therefore remain relatively stable. But higher resolution OP must endure that deafening noise and it is because of this that it is less adroit at making sense of everything as it swings wildly in an attempt to see the forest through the tress, so to speak. However, once inside of 72-96 hours or so, hearing everything is optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 12z GEFS are a little better for everyone...N, S E and W. Looks reasonable to me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reality will be in between. Yeah unlikely we get skunked completely....esp once you are getting up into northern SNE. Long ways to go though before anything...even the 12/18-19 threat is 5 days out and most of us in SNE are not in the game with that threat....so we're still probably a week-plus out from our next snow threat. A lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I still like my attitude for these parts. If something happens around here before Christmas...gravy. I am looking more afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I still like my attitude for these parts. If something happens around here before Christmas...gravy. I am looking more afterwards. If I lived in S Weymouth, I'd be planning a trip to Tahoe for the holidays...give poor Byrce the white xmas he deserves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I lived in S Weymouth, I'd be planning a trip to Tahoe for the holidays...give poor Byrce the white xmas he deserves Would a few miles north make a difference? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Actually given the SSTs...maybe I'll roll with S Wey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually given the SSTs...maybe I'll roll with S Wey. Gather round my weenie friends, one and all, for a good, ole fashioned holiday circle jerk under the mistletoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gather round my weenie friends, one and all, for a good, ole fashioned holiday circle jerk under the mistletoe I'm looking forward to when that cold comes and I can't see across the street from a girthy CJ, while the exhaust clears the skies over Methuen enough to see the rings around Saturn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm looking forward to when that cold comes and I can't see across the street from a girthy CJ, while the exhaust clears the skies over Methuen enough to see the rings around Saturn. I dunno, I thought your's and Ray's conversation was gonna involve a different planet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm looking forward to when that cold comes and I can't see across the street from a girthy CJ, while the exhaust clears the skies over Methuen enough to see the rings around Saturn. Not this year, brother....I'm looking forward to Bryce sledding in mud, while @BostonWX in Milton measures in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Man euro is a I-90 north special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I dunno, I thought your's and Ray's conversation was gonna involve a different planet. You filthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not this year, brother....I'm looking forward to Bryce sledding in mud, while @BostonWX in Milton measures in feet. Just now, CoastalWx said: Man euro is a I-90 north special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not this year, brother....I'm looking forward to Bryce sledding in mud, while @BostonWX in Milton measures in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Might have to worry about Dodge Ram's in Tolland going up in flames if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Might have to worry about Dodge Ram's in Tolland going up in flames if that happens. My favorite is when he regales us with tales of how is elevation will ward off the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My favorite is when he regales us with tales of how is elevation will ward off the sleet. In and up, while mother nature gives him in and up because of 850 temps. Srfc issues here for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: In and up, while mother nature gives him in and up because of 850 temps. Srfc issues here for a bit. 00z was pike north, too...this run a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah unlikely we get skunked completely....esp once you are getting up into northern SNE. Long ways to go though before anything...even the 12/18-19 threat is 5 days out and most of us in SNE are not in the game with that threat....so we're still probably a week-plus out from our next snow threat. A lot can change. I guess it depends what one means by "game" ... Even relative to 5 days out mm...a minoring wintry profiled scenario is on the table to N CT/RI... That's a suppress b-clinic open wave that's putting down icing/mix in the interior from what i'm looking at... probably light snow in southern VT. Lest we forget, cold exertion in the bl/ageo forcing is routinely underestimated, even in higher resolution reputable guidance types - which frankly ..this latter has been rattled in confidence lately anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z was pike north, too. You look at it initially and first take is the airmass sucks. But we sort of CAA during it. Otherwise, that would be a trash solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Certainly don't want any wound up systems if you're looking for colder solutions. Sort of want to see a weaker diffuse system that brings an overrunning event that doesn't scour out the cold that precedes it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 course... I hadn't seen the 12z Euro ... but it doesn't change the deterministic status ... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You look at it initially and first take is the airmass sucks. But we sort of CAA during it. Otherwise, that would be a trash solution. Kind of reminds of the event in January 2019....rain flipped to ice and snow from N to south, just before that arctic mother lode came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kind of reminds of the event in January 2019....rain flipped to ice and snow from N to south, just before that arctic mother lode came in. That slipped right down your fanny crack into ern MA. You were like 12 degrees when I was near freezing for a bit. We then cooled off at the surface as it warmed aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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