40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I also said euro guidance meaning incorporating ensembles. I don't think that one works out for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yeah I should have clarified because the op was flatter (and maybe that does occur). Just my gut feeling...that might be more north. The one on the 21st looks much more interesting for you and perhaps the interior. Maybe Dec 2005-lite occurs for me like the 6z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I should have clarified because the op was flatter (and maybe that does occur). Just my gut feeling...that might be more north. The one on the 21st looks much more interesting for you and perhaps the interior. Maybe Dec 2005-lite occurs for me like the 6z GFS shows. My feeling on the first one is a SWFE that taints into CNE...just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 In any case, it's finally nice to look ahead and not see a 500mb blood bath over the northeast. I don't know how long it will last, but it also does not seem fleeting. I don't see signs of Nina like convection over the maritime continent roaring back and the easterly anomalies are kind of meh. Maybe the beginnings of a base state change? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: In any case, it's finally nice to look ahead and not see a 500mb blood bath over the northeast. I don't know how long it will last, but it also does not seem fleeting. I don't see signs of Nina like convection over the maritime continent roaring back and the easterly anomalies are kind of meh. Maybe the beginnings of a base state change? I feel like mid January will go to crap as we await the strat to lead the way for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like mid January will go to crap as we await the strat to lead the way for the second half. 50mb strat gets elongated and digs into the CONUS at the end of the run. I take that as a good thing. Usually worst case is like a concentric circle over Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb strat gets elongated and digs into the CONUS at the end of the run. I take that as a good thing. Usually worst case is like a concentric circle over Siberia. Partly my gut, but also based on a lot of researching analog years...... I think that PV is getting absolutely nuked beyond the mid way point of this season. Its going to be a wild second half...JMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Waaaaay OT and ahead, but next year should be watched for a modoki el nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Partly my gut, but also based on a lot of researching analog years...... I think that PV is getting absolutely nuked beyond the mid way point of this season. Its going to be a wild second half...JMHO. I’ve unbuttoned my bottoms. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve unbuttoned the scary truth that I like my bottoms hairy and large. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Manscaping is a beautiful thing. Unfortunately when you are married with two young kids, no one notices. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: West of "The River." Anything goes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Partly my gut, but also based on a lot of researching analog years...... I think that PV is getting absolutely nuked beyond the mid way point of this season. Its going to be a wild second half...JMHO. I'm patrolling naked if that happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm patrolling naked if that happens Well, I went basically normal snowfall for NYC....don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for 1996 seasonal totals anywhere...but I think its going to be a departure from your typical nina snooze fest climo to close the season is what I mean. Should be some big cold shots and decent snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 man that is going to be one crazy wind event in the Plains Wednesday. GFS may be overmixing a bit but some of the soundings are insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Waaaaay OT and ahead, but next year should be watched for a modoki el nino. Hopefully weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm patrolling naked if that happens Good morning Anthony. Providing you can get clearance from the future Mrs Anthony for this event, I would like to put a bid In for the video rights with background music consisting of the car 54 theme song. As always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: man that is going to be one crazy wind event in the Plains Wednesday. GFS may be overmixing a bit but some of the soundings are insane. Naked KY sounding views Saturday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I went basically normal snowfall for NYC....don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for 1996 seasonal totals anywhere...but I think its going to be a departure from your typical nina snooze fest climo to close the season is what I mean. Should be some big cold shots and decent snow. Fine with me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Naked KY sounding views Saturday? A different type of naked. The GFS tends to overmix (while the NAM tends to undermix)...why this is IDK but it's kinda annoying actually but how often do you see wind potential like this in a synoptic event? That part of the country does synoptic wind events much better than we do but this is still quite impressive for them. Winter dynamics aloft with a spring environment at the sfc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 There may be 2-3 chances between 12/18-12/25....hopefully we can cash in. The pattern is really active and there's a lot of cold bleeding in after the 18-19th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough Thanks for pointing out the obvious. Hence the word chances, they could easily be snow with the available cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 if it's not a slam dunk KU pattern who cares. we've seen so many big events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough Sure....but with the plentiful supply of cold air in Canada will ensure that it will at least begin as snowfall....and if the cold is pervasive enough, the system could triple point to the coast and be predominately snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: if it's not a slam dunk KU pattern who cares. we've seen so many big events Holiday week, I'll take anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I’ll take whatever the gfs is having for next Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if it's not a slam dunk KU pattern who cares. we've seen so many big events Who cares if it's a KU. Any snow is fine. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if it's not a slam dunk KU pattern who cares. we've seen so many big events While perhaps not the favored outcome, you do realize that major Miller B cyclogenesis is still possible, correct? Take a look at the 1968-1969 season.....1970-1971, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure....but with the plentiful supply of cold air in Canada will ensure that it will at least begin as snowfall....and if the cold is pervasive enough, the system could triple point to the coast and be predominately snowfall. He thinks we can't get snow with a negative PNA. Chances of that further south are not as good as further north but as long the NAO and EPO cooperate , that should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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