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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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I was scanning the individual GEF members and about 2/3rds of them were signaling a highish latitude Miller B spanning next Weekend+1 day.  Large system...originating as a Colorado Low/ continental mauler - something I personally have not seen in quite some time.  This type of low can run moderate to heavy snow totals over a wide expanse ... polarward of a primary track from circa Denver to circa Detroit ... Buffalo region, prior to coastal commitment.   

The other 1/3 have either too much primary... or... to weak over all to be meaningful.

Over all this is a trend over the previous two consecutive cycles in the mean ( and indiv.  member count ), gaining coherence for that signal.

I'm not seeing where the telecon spread from the GEFs signals the Archembault - typically H.A. events are pretty clearly signaled in the former so it is interesting.  This feature has been on the operational GFS for three consecutive days worth of cycels...varying between more primary and ice storm cinema, to more commitment to coastal and quite the wallop from PHL to Maine as K.U.   

The GGEM jumped radically on-board this 12z, but it's solution make-up looks unnatural with a 980 mb low over BUF escaping soon into the Maritime,  and then 30 hours later, a sub 950 mb low abeam PWM... That's like never happened, and for a reason.

I haven't seen individual EPS members, ...but the mean trended significantly deeper in the total 500 mb between 12z on the 25th and 12z this morning. The operational version is emerging, albeit slowly, ... an active baroclinic field with [ probably ] a multi -wave impact.  Usually the ANA-esque open waves at this range is more like a reservation so..   

So, with this fledgling consensus for an active New Year's weekend across the country, with [ probably of more importance at this range ] such a massive system with large mass field involvement... it's probably not a mere red herring.   I'm just a little leery about the 'magnification' thing the models do ...where they see these things on the temporal horizon like we see the moon’s first rise as a giant pancake.  It is also possible - and sometimes does occur - where the higher res "souped up" model types/operational version will agree on a signal, and backward of convention...the telecon opens up to the idea.   I just find it really interesting that the type of system in the GEFs members is a typical of an index modality event, yet the PNA isn't impressive there, which is based on the g-damn GEFs... 

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31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

His best album to me was with Faces, never cared for his solo stuff.  Not that it is bad

100% concur. Great band. My brother-in-laws and wives saw him in Vegas this fall said his show was still very good.

Of course if you are into this sort of thing, if you talk about Faces you need to discuss Steve Marriott and Humble Pie.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dude was a massive sex symbol. I remember my mom was infatuated with him lol

For real. I saw him in concert in Hartford a couple decades back and middle aged women were rushing the stage and practically attaching themselves like barnacles to him. It was quite humorous watching security pry them off while Rod kept on singing.

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Very frustrating first third of the season. The pattern def was subpar and less favorable than I had anticipated, but it wasn't as bad as the complete and utter absence of significant SNE snow would lead one to believe. December has been warm, I get it, but the RNA flex at the same, precise time that the NAO block set up was just horrible timing. Be that as it may, still had some shots that either just didn't come together in time, or got shredded to crap. The fact that there are no instances of a December that featured such a prominent NAO block during a weak to mod la nina, yet still produced no significant SNE snow is a testament to the fact that there was some bad luck involved.

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z Nam is a little wintry tomorrow night

 

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When nickles and dimes become Benjamin's the evolution will be complete. Patience grasshopper 

Some of the best light to moderate events never show up 4-6 days out. Rather, they sort of sneak in at a 48-84 hour distance like this. 
 

In fact the last snow in CT did just that. 

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34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The RAP just came in with a nice little 1 to 3 inch snowfall for you guys in Southern New England tomorrow night into Tuesday. (It doesn't look like you guys post many snow maps on here, so I will refrain from doing so. :) )

Several models are doing this now…. I take what I can get, but still this overall regime so really resisting going full on snow mode. I’m seeing hints of a pattern change toward that…. But nothing more.

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