December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Hoth]

Well gents, time to crack a few Trilliums and celebrate. Merry Christmas to you all!

[moneypitmike]

Fortunately I didn't bother shoveling the driveway.......it's pretty steep so it'll be great having traction with the possibility of ice.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Toss.  You’ll certainly be sub freezing 

You don’t think it will warm above freezing as we get later into the morning? 

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

Great post….awesome animations in the pattern there. That pattern at the end would certainly be more conductive to coastal storms as well even though the overrunners and redevelopers are still likely favored. At least the meat grinder relaxes a bit. 
 

The really strong block in the Chukchi Sea has my attention too. In the past, we’ve seen some really extreme cold outbreaks into the northern tier when a block develops there. 

[Torch Tiger]

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Thanks for the reports @Damage In Tolland3" the final there?

Highest report I could find is 3" in Pomfret. 

[SouthCoastMA]

some passing flurries. wasn't expecting anything so we'll take

[WxFreak11]

Merry Christmas from all of us loyal lurkers

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Great post….awesome animations in the pattern there. That pattern at the end would certainly be more conductive to coastal storms as well even though the overrunners and redevelopers are still likely favored. At least the meat grinder relaxes a bit. 
 

The really strong block in the Chukchi Sea has my attention too. In the past, we’ve seen some really extreme cold outbreaks into the northern tier when a block develops there. 

I for one would welcome an extreme cold outbreak.  It’s been a few years since we had one.  I think this was Jan 2018.

 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

I for one would welcome an extreme cold outbreak.  It’s been a few years since we had one.  I think this was Jan 2018.

 

Me too, I have a pic somewhere with my car therm at -16, been awhile

[moneypitmike]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Me too, I have a pic somewhere with my car therm at -16, been awhile

I think that cold outbreak lasted about 36 hours.  lol

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Thanks for the reports @Damage In Tolland3" the final there?

Highest report I could find is 3" in Pomfret. 

Yeah 3.0” on the dot . I saw a 2.9 in Ashford and 3.3” Pomfret 

[IowaStorm05]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I found this beer .. small brewery out of Kansas City - well ...may be bigger now, or no longer exist, not sure.   They were called "Sixth Glass."  They made this amazing 10.4% potent IPA that had an almost creamy sort of velvety finish to it.  It was amazing. It went well with just about any meal, or just nursing during the game - multi utility, and yes... given to the 10.4%, you really only need a couple of them.  If downed on an empty stomach, perhaps only one.  

Amazing beer.  

Now ... personally, I haven't drank any alcohol in 7 years - despite the marketing pitch above.  Ha.  But I had to make the conscience choice for better over worse.  I wasn't an alcoholic .. .at least I don't think?  But, I did at the time feel I was engaging in life style that was not healthy, too often. The proof of that, I was beginning to manifest physical oddities that I don't care to delve into -LOL.  Anyway, since stopping, all vitals are vastly improved and I weigh like 180 .. .Turns out, I'm actually a tall slender bloke - not that barrel chested after all.  Probably TMI but ...I guess one doesn't always know when a lifestyle is creeping into a dangerous territory. It can be a very gradual process, where one's body adapts over time; meanwhile, the adaptation is muting the sensation of the erosion going on - then there you are ... hosting an uneasy conversation with a doctor...etc.    I mean, I wasn't even getting much in the way of hang-overs like ever... Yet I could put away a bottle of wine and one of those IPA's above every night.  Go to work fine the next morning...  fine.   Gradually got to that state over years.  

So, I suppose I needed the change at the time - duh. But it went painless for me.  No withdrawal bullshit or cravings. Nothing. Stopped one night on a dime and never went back... I really only missed the cigars I used to have along with - that's really a nice combination. Really soothing. Tie one one then spark up a blunt... My god, can't believe I used to engage like that.  Now?  I work out every day crazy -like.   I run 10K, then bike 24 miles the next day, then do an hour on the full press Elliptical, and weight train every other work out. Eat organic, high in fruit and veggies. Lots of water. Sleep regular...basically, no life.  But hey, I feel topico!

 

You probably saved your own life by giving that particular vice up. I’m not a doctor but Those “oddities” were probably caused by alcoholic hepatitis of the liver. And you don’t have to be an alcoholic to get that. You just have to drink a lot.
 

I once drank very heavily for a year, and had trouble stopping. In the end I treat my mental health with medications and that reduced my need and cravings for things that endanger my health so I am doing a lot better today.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

You probably saved your own life by giving that particular vice up. Those “oddities” were probably caused by alcoholic hepatitis of the liver. And you don’t have to be an alcoholic to get that. You just have to drink a lot.
 

I once drank very heavily for a year, and had trouble stopping. In the end I treat my mental health with medications and that reduced my need and cravings for things that endanger my health so I am doing a lot better today.

Glad you put your health above all else and straightened out but what does that have to do with the post?

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah 3.0” on the dot . I saw a 2.9 in Ashford and 3.3” Pomfret 

Nice, thanks. Just wanted to make sure that was the final, i saw you posted a pic of a ruler with 3" earlier but didn't know if it was the final report or not.

Busy christmas eve but i should have a map tomorrow or the day after for CT.

Merry Christmas everyone

[metagraphica]

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Nice, thanks. Just wanted to make sure that was the final, i saw you posted a pic of a ruler with 3" earlier but didn't know if it was the final report or not.

Busy christmas eve but i should have a map tomorrow or the day after for CT.

Merry Christmas everyone

1.1" down here in Salem.  Nice to everything white again.

Merry Christmas to everyone!!

[CoastalWx]

Let’s go 18z gfs. Everyone happy.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s go 18z gfs. Everyone happy.

Merry Christmas Happy Hour 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You don’t think it will warm above freezing as we get later into the morning? 

You may but he won’t imho

[Damage In Tolland]

48 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Nice, thanks. Just wanted to make sure that was the final, i saw you posted a pic of a ruler with 3" earlier but didn't know if it was the final report or not.

Busy christmas eve but i should have a map tomorrow or the day after for CT.

Merry Christmas everyone

Merriest of merry 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah 3.0” on the dot . I saw a 2.9 in Ashford and 3.3” Pomfret 

That’s awesome.  After all of that the past 2-3 days to end up with a plowable snow is a helluva Christmas miracle.

You hear any Woodstock/Union reports?

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s awesome.  After all of that the past 2-3 days to end up with a plowable snow is a helluva Christmas miracle.

You hear any Woodstock/Union reports?

Got one of the picnic tables earlier just for you!

[Sugarloaf1989]

I'm at my sister's house and there is 2" of snow here in North East Pennsylvania. Snow all the way here except for around the Hudson River Valley.  We ate dinner in Northern New Jersey and there was snow OTG there also. 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s awesome.  After all of that the past 2-3 days to end up with a plowable snow is a helluva Christmas miracle.

You hear any Woodstock/Union reports?

I don’t recall the last time we had a legit White Xmas . Maybe 7 years ago or so . Just makes things feel so much better. Nostalgic . 
They were both in the 2.5-3.0” range 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t recall the last time we had a legit White Xmas . Maybe 7 years ago or so . Just makes things feel so much better. Nostalgic . 
They were both in the 2.5-3.0” range 

You had one in 2017. A good one with snow falling Christmas morning. That was our last one.

[CoastalWx]

Even the islands had snow. That’s pretty dam cool.

[IowaStorm05]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Glad you put your health above all else and straightened out but what does that have to do with the post?

Everything. I’m relating to his experience almost verbatim. Those health measures were part of a solution that makes it much easier to not live unhealthy lifestyles such as daily heavy boozing.

I can spell it out better I guess if people don’t understand. I have to take ADHD medication and medication for schizophrenia otherwise I experience what’s like having holes in my head that I will compulsively and unsuccessfully fill with whatever I can get my hands on. now I can actually you know, go to work and stuff.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Everything. I’m relating to his experience almost verbatim. Those health measures were part of a solution that makes it much easier to not live unhealthy lifestyles such as daily heavy boozing.

I get it, was in the same boat for about a year after I lost my Mom, put me over the edge, got straightened out like you, Merry Christmas.

Weird, I read the post you quoted now and makes sense, when I first read it it quoted another post.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You had one in 2017. A good one with snow falling Christmas morning. That was our last one.

Was that the one that most had like 1”?

[IowaStorm05]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I get it, was in the same boat for about a year after I lost my Mom, put me over the edge, got straightened out like you, Merry Christmas

You too. And a healthy one