Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chargers10
    Newest Member
    Chargers10
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if icing is a little worse than forecasted tomorrow with temps running lower than predicted today. Seems that the atmosphere is a bit colder than was modeled…

Watch the meso models tonight to see if they speed up the trend of ushering in the surface warmth.  I have a feeling that’s what’s going to happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

HRRR is pretty nasty tomorrow, even close to the coast near the onset. 495 corridor may struggle to hit 32 for most of the day. 

Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch. 

This has been my coldest day of the season by far. I’m expecting just enough here to make tomorrow morning a mess. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Ended up with 1.2” in Southington. Appears to be almost entirely intact with the temp sitting at 28 and clouds — looks like it’ll be a White Christmas here.

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....my coating is entirely intact including paved surfaces.

Even the coldest guidance i think had a high around 28ish at ORH. That ended up being the high near BOS and the ORH Asos has been running warm too  

 

AF0057A3-7322-4045-8033-AB6DB52D336D.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I hadn't realized there was such a sharp cut-off on the snow amounts up there last week.  PWM was over 7" and Pit2 wound up with only about 2", that's less than 40 miles up the coast.

The qpf field on radar was showery, So totals were all over the place, Not your typical overrunning event.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-uv200_stream-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.863997f66de8a4eb938d6abb4a536dae.gif

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-asia-mslp_anom-1640347200-1640606400-1641124800-10.thumb.gif.b54a5ded493169ad178cd5b320b10f2a.gif

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641729600-10-1.thumb.gif.8cfe4affd148e490a0f3074f89097e76.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.2af3fb521148d1f43a72632ea6420bda.gif

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-uv200_stream-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.863997f66de8a4eb938d6abb4a536dae.gif

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-asia-mslp_anom-1640347200-1640606400-1641124800-10.thumb.gif.b54a5ded493169ad178cd5b320b10f2a.gif

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641729600-10-1.thumb.gif.8cfe4affd148e490a0f3074f89097e76.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1640347200-1640995200-1641643200-10-1.thumb.gif.2af3fb521148d1f43a72632ea6420bda.gif

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

Thanks for the info 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...