CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Will is right, that could be icy just inland on Christmas. It has that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kudos to you for analyzing those subtle nuances when the choices in outcome are rain, or P. Cloudy....I just can't bring myself to do it. Lol ...I here ya, but I'm into Meteorology scientifically too - not just the experience... I mean I'm not trying to gas-light by saying that - it's just the reason why I bother. That said (and all empathy conferred), I'm not so sure that it ends up rain either. I mean, let's just make it clear; it's less likely to happen the way the GFS. But, suppose the less odds won, it could correct S to atone the -NAO suppression. I also just pointed out...I don't think the Euro is "partly cloudy" ...? That much wind max tunneling under our latitude is likely to induce some light if not middling frontogenic response on the polar side of the wind max axis. The bending of the PP is a tall-tail sign/convergence for there being lift going on overtop... I think that could verify more cloud with mood in the air. The Euro is 33 at 12z in the interior, then 40 in the aftenroon as is, but if correcting - those are colder. The Euro could be exactly right, as is, .. no modulation necessary.. But it's differentiated it's surface evolution compared to the 00z, so it's not like it's putting on a great show in the parade of solutions here. It can be modified around it's essence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol ...I here ya, but I'm into Meteorology scientifically too - not just the experience... I mean I'm not trying to gas-light by saying that - it's just the reason why I bother. That said (and all empathy conferred), I'm not so sure that it ends up rain either. I mean, let's just make it clear; it's less likely to happen the way the GFS. But, suppose the less odds won, it could correct S to atone the -NAO suppression. I also just pointed out...I don't think the Euro is "partly cloudy" ...? That much wind max tunneling under our latitude is likely to induce some light if not middling frontogenic response on the polar side of the wind max axis. The bending of the PP is a tall-tail sign/convergence for there being lift going on overtop... I think that could verify more cloud with mood in the air. The Euro is 33 at 12z in the interior, then 40 in the aftenroon as is, but if correcting - those are colder. The Euro could be exactly right, as is, .. no modulation necessary.. But it's differentiated it's surface evolution compared to the 00z, so it's not like it's putting on a great show in the parade of solutions here. It can be modified around it's essence. I know...sarcasm was only mild. I do appreciate your zest for meteorology in its purest and most scientific sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will is right, that could be icy just inland on Christmas. It has that look. Uhg. I’d prefer dry and boring if that’s the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think youre hitting 40s with a weak sfc low traveling south of SNE. Maybe if it’s sunny you’ll hit 40F, lol…but not on Xmas day if it remains cloudy. I dont know what you consider weak but this looks like sub 990 on its closes pass to my back yard... There will be a well-defined warm sector with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will is right, that could be icy just inland on Christmas. It has that look. Looks icy in Mass but not CT on the euro verbatim? Didn’t see any ZR here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I dont know what you consider weak but this looks like sub 990 on its closes pass to my back yard... There will be a well-defined warm sector with this. Only if you believe a stronger version of the GFS will verify. Even on the GFS solution you aren’t hitting 40s. Maybe the immediate seacoast would but you are inland about 10 miles right? Not a chance west of the CF…and that doesn’t happen during Xmas day either. Would probably be more toward overnight into the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Healthy clown. I already told my wife I might be heading up to Maine. We'll see if that look continues--even half that might get me up there this month. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I wonder how many times this phrase has been muttered over the years. Yes but until recently we knew which deck to draw from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I already told my wife I might be heading up to Maine. We'll see if that look continues--even half that might get me up there this month. Yes but until recently we knew which deck to draw from. Love it. Probably time to tell my wife I might need to head west for a bit if this pattern continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I already told my wife I might be heading up to Maine. We'll see if that look continues--even half that might get me up there this month. Yes but until recently we knew which deck to draw from. “Honey we’re not having Christmas together this year. I don’t want to miss 3 inches of snow..” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. Looks like between the 1-5th we get a decent cold shot as the pna lifts out. Perhaps that’s the period to look towards on something more wintry. Unfortunately, the -pna builds back again after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. Giving the dog a bone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. When is that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 NAM beefs up a little bit for CT tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like between the 1-5th we get a decent cold shot as the pna lifts out. Perhaps that’s the period to look towards on something more wintry. Unfortunately, the -pna builds back again after that We (New England) are ok with that look. It's the current situation which has it positively tilted and digging for oil near Vancouver. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. Yeah improvement at the end. EPS also seems to like the timeframe around New Years for a potential snowier event. Some members have a good thump…OP had a bit too around that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 NAM is nice in CT. Hopefully some goodies move east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, leo2000 said: When is that?. January! 2023. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I’ll take that NAM depiction please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is nice in CT. Hopefully some goodies move east a bit. Ain’t happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 NAM is caving a bit up here for Xmas night. A nice NCEP fail is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ain’t happening You being SW may help with your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: NAM is caving a bit up here for Xmas night. A nice NCEP fail is setting up. I feel like every model has sucked for that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 43 minutes ago, weathafella said: “Honey we’re not having Christmas together this year. I don’t want to miss 3 inches of snow..” Well....I did invite her to join me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 11/22/2021 at 9:24 PM, dryslot said: Its still November. It’s a month later and nothing has changed. except the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It’s a month later and nothing has changed. except the month. It has here........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: It has here........lol How much snow you have Dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Euro not buying what the goofus is selling. It seems like Pope and GFS peace pipes got burned out by ice . Just smoldering stubs left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. Don’t believe it for a second plus 300 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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