40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I think we had a Christmas Eve icing event but it could have been the 23th, I don't have Will's memory. Don't ever remember a Christmas day icing event though. 2017 a few days before xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: What’s worse? The ?"mediocre"? pattern or Lucy pulling the football away once we get inside three days of a “threat”? First of all, ... replace that adjective above with something more realistically descriptive ... something like, oh say - brain's blasted out the back of skulls. Secondly, not sure how we can disconnect the latter sentiment from the brain's blow-out model, when the latter is entirely caused by the blown out brains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2017 a few days before xmas. We had some light icing on the morning of Xmas 1997. I don’t think we’ve had a moderate or larger icing event in Xmas to my knowledge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 This has been one of the more useless NAO blocks that I can recall.....shreds everything but the cutters. I get that it prevented us from experiencing nice weather...I mean in terms of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 UK and Canadian are night and day from the GFS. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s drying up a bit on guidance but you should still get an inch or so would be my guess. It’s more problematic further east. Hopefully it overperforms a bit. Not feeling great about it here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: UK and Canadian are night and day from the GFS. WTF. What a NWP disaster. That’s not even close and it’s a 60-72 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: What a NWP disaster. That’s not even close and it’s a 60-72 hour prog. I've never seen this. It's comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not feeling great about it here lol I mean, 0.05 QPF in either direction will make a big deal…lol…difference between going from maybe an inch to a dusting or flakes to getting 2” of fluff. It’s a crappy little clipper that would probably get about 5 posts if it weren’t Xmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 It's depressing honestly to look at the long range forecast and not even see 3 straight days where temps stay below 40. Just the reality of climate change. Going to be a struggle all winter to get enough cold for decent snow. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: It's depressing honestly to look at the long range forecast and not even see 3 straight days where temps stay below 40. Just the reality of climate change. Going to be a struggle all winter to get enough cold for decent snow. That would be BN (three straight days under 40) for PYM so it's not a surprise to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 GYX's take on the Saturday-Sunday event. Overall models continue to struggle in the mid range due at least in part to the transition from ridging to troughing across New England. The GFS has been consistent for several runs with a more robust system for late Saturday and Sunday, while the Euro has had almost nothing across New England. However, the latest 00z run of the Euro and the Euro ensembles show a dramatic shift from earlier thinking toward the GFS/GEFS solutions. Meanwhile, the GFS remains consistent with the system overall, but has trended even stronger and slightly farther north with it. The overall driving force for this system derives from two short waves approaching New England, and how much they merge with each other before moving out to sea. The latest model runs are in better agreement in a faster second wave merging and amplifying across New England. With this solution, it`s possible that light precipitation with the first shortwave could break out across southern and western areas by Saturday morning, with precip intensity increasing late Saturday and Saturday night as the system amplifies. It`s possible there wouldn`t be much of a break in the precip through the event if the waves merge quickly enough. This is a dramatic shift in the model consensus for a system that`s only 2.5-3.5 days away. With this forecast we raised POPs from the NBM solution to a mid to high chance for most areas, with southern and western areas seeing a greater chance on Saturday, while northern areas hold off until Saturday night and Sunday. We held off on going higher on POPs to give time to make sure this early morning`s runs aren`t just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Can’t get the majority of the GEFS members on board yet either. Op will probably cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: It's depressing honestly to look at the long range forecast and not even see 3 straight days where temps stay below 40. Just the reality of climate change. Going to be a struggle all winter to get enough cold for decent snow. There’s going to be record cold out west. We would’ve been above 40° in 1717 as well. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What a NWP disaster. That’s not even close and it’s a 60-72 hour prog. we should put up a betting pool... Can you imagine the pay-out if 1 person in the 15,000 users put a 100 down the Jet's to win the blizzard bowl and they did ...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can’t get the majority of the GEFS members on board yet either. Op will probably cave. I thought they looked ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I thought they looked ok. There’s a sfc low either way. But the op has been nuked. Many of the ens are south/drier and have warmer thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Although climate change is having an impact on weather patterns, I think we're putting way too much emphasis on what's happening right now in relation to climate change. There are also things that will happen regardless of climate change. Things have happened a hundred years ago where we've gotten a warmer pattern and I'm sure not much of any snow. Case in point, look at the West right now. Very cold and a lot of snow, and they've been in that pattern for a while.. So we can and will get episodes or stretches like that too. It may still happen this year ( and may not ). The point is, we will get a snowy and cold winter again. They're not dead and gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 12z UK beefs it up a bit still compared to others but even that is slightly weaker looking over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Although climate change is having an impact on weather patterns, I think we're putting way too much emphasis on what's happening right now in relation to climate change. There are also things that will happen regardless of climate change. Things have happened a hundred years ago where we've gotten a warmer pattern and I'm sure not much of any snow. Case in point, look at the West right now. Very cold and a lot of snow, and they've been in that pattern for a while.. So we can and will get episodes or stretches like that too. It may still happen this year ( and may not ). The point is, we will get a snowy and cold winter again. They're not dead and gone. It’s a massive negative PNA. Period. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a massive negative PNA. Period. Lol at all the posts waxing poetic about no more cold/snow. Most people probably don’t even realize that 2018-2019 was actually below normal temps….nevermind years like 2014-2015 or 2013-2014 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: 12z UK beefs it up a bit For what? Bone dry here for tnite/tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: For what? Bone dry here for tnite/tomorrow What I really meant was for CT it suggests over an inch. Compared to others it’s nicer. I dunno if it means anything but it’s hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 "Weather" the current circulation mode of the hemisphere is relatable to CC ... it is, first of all. Because climate change happens because of changes in weather event distribution - to which what is happening now .... IS WEATHER EVENT DISTRIBUTION. It gets old trying to run from climate change behind the mantra that climate doesn't drive the weather. It doesn't ? but that's evasive, really. Because it means the weather events that integrate the climate, are changing. That's just logic. You can't have a warming climate, without changes in the circulation modes .. .because the circulation modes are driving the weather that averages the f'ing climate! Having said that ... it's not why it is not snowing right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol at all the posts waxing poetic about no more cold/snow. Most people probably don’t even realize that 2018-2019 was actually below normal temps….nevermind years like 2014-2015 or 2013-2014 If we are using warming temps, I’m sure the folks freezing their ass off in the Pacific Northwest will appreciate that over the next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2017 a few days before xmas. There was one when I was a kid before you were born, late 60's early 70's, I remember being off school because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 AEMATT folks left in Christmas despair. CT will get a solid covering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 How is Eric Webber’s NAO looking for east coast snow ? Guy can eat a fat one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: How is Eric Webber’s NAO looking for east coast snow ? Guy can eat a fat one. Who's that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Who's that ? A know it all millennial. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now