wx2fish Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS continues to say eff you to any block and keeps moving north. At least Christmas is mostly dry. Expand Goal posts seem to widening, not narrowing. Pretty wild differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 That's warning snow up here on the 12z GFS on the 26th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:55 PM, dryslot said: That's warning snow up here on the 12z GFS on the 26th Expand Weenies piled into the kids playhouse? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Ptype maps are mixed initially, but soundings are near an isothermal 0°C. My gut says that would be mostly snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS continues to say eff you to any block and keeps moving north. At least Christmas is mostly dry. Expand It shreds everything, except the cutter, that of course looks healthy as a horse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS continues to say eff you to any block and keeps moving north. At least Christmas is mostly dry. Expand Weird I thought that was coming south Block ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3k NAM is very paltry for tomorrow morning. Thing is just drying up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS continues to say eff you to any block and keeps moving north. At least Christmas is mostly dry. Expand Lol. Let’s see if we can get the euro to show dry on 12/26 while GFS has dendrite playing naked twister with ptype line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:57 PM, dendrite said: Ptype maps are mixed initially, but soundings are near an isothermal 0°C. My gut says that would be mostly snow here. Expand Healthy clown. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:32 PM, CoastalWx said: RGEM dries up tonight and fairly dry on Christmas. LOL. Expand GFS went poof as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:59 PM, dryslot said: Healthy clown. Expand 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 If this happens, expect @TheSnowmanto drive from RI to the red circled area to chase snow and then be disappointed. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:52 PM, Modfan2 said: I asked a few pages back have we ever had a Xmas day icing event? Expand I think we had a Christmas Eve icing event but it could have been the 23th, I don't have Will's memory. Don't ever remember a Christmas day icing event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:04 PM, mreaves said: If this happens, expect @TheSnowmanto drive from RI to the red circled area to chase snow and then be disappointed. Expand If you give him abbreviations he could end up anywhere. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 3:32 PM, CoastalWx said: RGEM dries up tonight and fairly dry on Christmas. LOL. Expand I could care less if we have another storm in the next 30 days. Wanted that 1/2" tonight/ tomorrow for something white christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:05 PM, dryslot said: If you give him abbreviations he could end up anywhere. Expand “How am I supposed to know where EEN is??????” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Even powderfreaks favorite ARW type models are dry as a bone tonight and tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 "12/26 event" will really be Christmas afternoon starting. And it gon rain for 95% of subforum. Grinch wins again. Better chances than not I warm sector. Would be nice to get rid of this dreadful ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:16 PM, jbenedet said: "12/26 event" will really be Christmas afternoon starting. And it gon rain for 95% of subforum. Grinch wins again. Better chances than not I warm sector. Would be nice to get rid of this dreadful ice. Expand With temps in the 30’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 -NAO is way overated this time. I will never trust it with the PNA like that again. Forward pattern looks like hot garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:19 PM, cleetussnow said: -NAO is way overated this time. I will never trust it with the PNA like that again. Forward pattern looks like hot garbage. Expand Our historic stretches in the northeast (not all of them, but some) have had a -PNA and -NAO combo. But, like with any pattern....it's not always a guarantee and nuances in the overall look will cause it to have destructive interference or expectations one did not hope for. You think anybody expected Boston to break its snowfall record with a raging +NAO? It happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:16 PM, jbenedet said: "12/26 event" will really be Christmas afternoon starting. And it gon rain for 95% of subforum. Grinch wins again. Better chances than not I warm sector. Would be nice to get rid of this dreadful ice. Expand It's really eerily symbolic... like the models are catching something spooky in the act of moving physics around for some weird need to see that happen LOL. Seriously, one school of thought is that the "Globe" part of the G, F, and S model is supposed to mean, in principle, a full planetary integrated system? If thats the case, and the NAO is indeed fated to a nuanced subtlety that allows a system to get to CNE, it might be a model that is more likely to detect that. Just sayn' Or not... I cannot stress enough, tho - the GFS did this three weeks ago with equal panache. Hung it's verification out to dry on a system no other model carried along. For days it insisted... then it finally capitulated. Gone...with like 36 hours to spare. I think everyone's acknowledged this - it's not a new point... But just thought I'd bring it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With temps in the 30’s? Expand Dude, ... yesterday ... when the ice rendered to cold rain... we bucketed over a half inch of rain at 32.8 F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With temps in the 30’s? Expand 40's. I don't see a surface HP anywhere in Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Dude, ... yesterday ... when the ice rendered to cold rain... we bucketed over a half inch of rain at 32.8 F Expand I love this comment. I can understand 100% of everything you typed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:24 PM, jbenedet said: 40's. I don't see a surface HP anywhere in Quebec. Expand I don’t think youre hitting 40s with a weak sfc low traveling south of SNE. Maybe if it’s sunny you’ll hit 40F, lol…but not on Xmas day if it remains cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think youre hitting 40s with a weak sfc low traveling south of SNE. Maybe if it’s sunny you’ll hit 40F, lol…but not on Xmas day if it remains cloudy. Expand You still ok with snow tonight / tomorrow morning? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said: Our historic stretches in the northeast (not all of them, but some) have had a -PNA and -NAO combo. But, like with any pattern....it's not always a guarantee and nuances in the overall look will cause it to have destructive interference or expectations one did not hope for. You think anybody expected Boston to break its snowfall record with a raging +NAO? It happens. Expand I think historical patterns are not as relevant given the fast flow due to cc and this time we see that. Tip says NAO is overated and This is one more example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 What’s worse? The mediocre pattern or Lucy pulling the football away once we get inside three days of a “threat”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You still ok with snow tonight / tomorrow morning? Expand It’s drying up a bit on guidance but you should still get an inch or so would be my guess. It’s more problematic further east. Hopefully it overperforms a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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